oconeexman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not a good run...to my untrained eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jonathan said: Yikes...the euro is WAY north...HUNDREDS OF MILES north...ouch I’m not seeing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 What the hell is up with that run?!?! That HP weakened to a 1029 and got punted out of a cannon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Yikes...the euro is WAY north...HUNDREDS OF MILES north...ouchWell this is not a good sign, I wonder what changed to cause a jump that massive?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The low is just north of Hatteras at 132...was near Wilmington on the 12z. Even Virginia rains. That high pressure gets broken down like a double barreled shotgun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The low is pretty close to the same track just a little slower and the High is gone by that point. This thing has to be timed just right to work out like 99% of our systems 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, oconeexman said: The low is pretty close to the same track just a little slower and the High is gone by that point. This thing has to be timed just right to work out like 99% of our systems At that particular hour, sure. I'm on wxbell and the low tracks from SC off the VA coast...yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 At that particular hour, sure. I'm on wxbell and the low tracks from SC off the VA coast...yuckAny snow at all in NC on this run?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 ouch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Any snow at all in NC on this run? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Verbatim with Kuchera ratio still 12"+ in the mountains, 20"+ near Roanoke VA, only 6-8" in the foothills, 2-6" Piedmont, 0-1" for Raleigh. EDIT: an additional 1-3" on the back side for the Piedmont, gets Raleigh to 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 So toss the euro?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Verbatim with Kuchera ratio still 12"+ in the mountains, 20"+ near Roanoke VA, only 6-8" in the foothills, 2-6" Piedmont, 0-1" for Raleigh. EDIT: an additional 1-3" on the back side for the Piedmont, gets Raleigh to 2-5" Wow! Maybe it’s wrong scooting that high out so quick. Seems like it doesn’t do good with CAD events? IIs that right or am I’m just hoping? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I guess overall, this is probably more realistic. Fantasy playtime is over outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Looks find for the foothills and mountains will surpass a yearly average easily with those totals(even cut in half). On to the next runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Dam Queen Scoot it down a touch plz...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, oconeexman said: Dam Queen Scott it down a touch plz...lol Ha! Still shows 6-7” from Clemson to Gaffney. With all the hemming and hawing, I would’ve thought opposite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Ha! Still shows 6-7” from Clemson to Gaffney. With all the hemming and hawing, I would’ve thought opposite. Yea I didnt think it was that bad at all just a little slower..but its picking up on the lower dew points now which compensates I believe. Still a thumping for the north of 85 crew! Thanks buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Ha! Still shows 6-7” from Clemson to Gaffney. With all the hemming and hawing, I would’ve thought opposite. I just thought overall it was a little more amped and warmer than we'd like to see. It definitely doesn't slide west to east, noticeable north jump this go round. Onto the ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It was 4-5 degrees warmer hours 132-144 for my area and lots of others. That stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Jonathan said: It was 4-5 degrees warmer hours 132-144 for my area and lots of others. That stinks. Yea that's no good..but it will change again and again the next 3 days. Hopefully for the good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Too quiet in here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Euro phased in the polar jet wave on the backside. This is actually prob better for those in eastern nc, as it results in back end deformation banding. Overall still a great thumping. The slp is more aligned with what youd expect from this 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Euro phased in the polar jet wave on the backside. This is actually prob better for those in eastern nc, as it results in back end deformation banding. Overall still a great thumping. The slp is more aligned with what youd expect from this Let's hope the NAM is handling the CAD correctly. 1036mb down into NC, great dewpoints! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Let's hope the NAM is handling the CAD correctly. 1036mb down into NC, great dewpoints! Nams running now correct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GSP AFD Emphasis on 40knot SE Winds at 850mb providing moisture transport and warm nose. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/ AS OF 350 AM WEDNESDAY: ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO UNUSUALLY GOOD CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN TO RUN REALLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW DESPITE THE STORM SYSTEM NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS HAS OCCURRED IN THE PAST, ESPECIALLY FOR UNUSUALLY SIGNIFICANT STORMS. THIS STORM MAY FALL IN THE UNUSUAL SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS IT SEEMS TO HAVE ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM. THIS BEING SAID, BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN THE EXACT FORECAST DETAILS AND RELATED POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS RELATIVELY MINOR SHIFTS TO THE STORM TRACK OR STRENGTH CAN LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WHERE AND HOW LONG WINTRY PRECIP SETS UP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE WEDGING DOWN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SUPPORTING COLDER AND DRIER LOW LEVELS, AHEAD OF THIS WEEKENDS STORM SYSTEM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTLINE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING THE CORNER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY. INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL LIKELY ASSIST THE CAD IN LOCKING IN COLD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 OR 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ENHANCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT UP AND OVER THE ESTABLISHED COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIP CHANGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAY BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OF THE STORM AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 30 TO 40 KT 850 MB WINDS ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS FLOW IS ALSO PERPENDICULAR TO THE COLD DOME CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY A 1030+ MB HIGH TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS THE PERPENDICULAR TO THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND THEREFORE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE REGION IS THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THIS STORM AS IT APPEARS AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-85 WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME WINTRY PRECIP TO THE MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE MOSTLY SNOW AND ICE. WARMER AIR ALOFT (WARM NOSE) MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING LEADING TO GREATER ICE/RAIN POTENTIAL AT LEAST BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE CRITICAL AS CURRENT LIQUID PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL IN THE 1- 2 INCH RANGE WITH UPLOPE AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING UP TO 3 INCHES. THE TAKE HOME MESSAGE IS THAT WERE ARE POTENTIALLY DEALING WITH A DANGEROUS STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION NOW LIKELY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-85. EARLY ESTIMATES PLACE A POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 1/2 OF AN INCH ACROSS NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. NOW IS THE TIME TO PUT YOUR WINTER WEATHER PLAN TOGETHER AND PREPARE FOR THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT UPCOMING WINTER STORM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF AND SLOW DOWN OR STALL OFF THE NC/VA COAST MONDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO THE TROUGH. THIS MAY SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO POTENTIALLY ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 hours ago, Jonathan said: More realistic. Cut those Kutcher’s totals about in half and you will be close to what the NWS eventual accumulation forecasts will be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: More realistic. Cut those Kutcher’s totals about in half and you will be close to what the NWS eventual accumulation forecasts will be probably the most logical snow map. i'd prob subtract 2 inches from those totals but it's more or less what i'm expecting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 13 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run... THEN the map is posted. Do y'all know where Wake is? That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category. End of the 6z nam. Fingers crossed its correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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