StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 A funny observation from watching Lanie Pope at 11. She still had the graphic showing a 10-30% chance of western piedmont getting snow/ice accumulating. That was followed by the future radar...depicting snow breaking out in western piedmont at 8:30am Sunday and it still snowing at 5:30am Tuesday!Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I see Brandon @HKY_WX lurking. Interested in your current thoughts sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Big picture: I think there is strong confidence in a solid front-end thump for a good portion of the NC Piedmont Saturday night/Sunday morning, transitioning to mixed p-types during the day Sunday. All in all, confidence seems high right now in a significant winter storm that will feature heavy wet snow, sleet, perhaps freezing rain and then plain rain for some. Regardless of the totals, this should be a good way to kick off the winter. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, UpstateSCBud said: I'll take that bet. Living in upstate SC for 30 years can make one quite the pessimist. I've even come up with my own formula to determine snow amounts. Take whatever is being modeled/forecasted and cut it in half. Take that total and cut it in half again. Whatever is remaining from that total, assume at least 1" of it will be either sleet, freezing rain, or cold rain. Be happy if what's left of the total is snow. I'd be pretty excited if i was in the upstate because i think it's a given right now that most of the precip will be of the winter variety in some form or fashion. 3 minutes ago, No snow for you said: I hope I didn’t come across as complaining. Just commenting the GFS doesn’t show much for GSP. I agree it is one model run with a model that will not exist In a month. It's ok, i wasn't directing that at you but that being said just a little less banter/one liners and taking the gfs at face value with cad would probably be better. As i said above, i'd be happy if i was where you were. Of course my standards are a lot lower probably. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GFS is wild. Check this out. I got two trend gifs. First one is the 500 vort over Texas: So, there's some variation, and these differences are important! But for the most part, it's just noise, and the front end outcome hasn't changed much with this system. Now fast forward 24 hours later: There are worlds of differences here- vort maxes aren't just in different states, they're in different regions- Especially on the last 3 runs. This has a lot implications for how our trough is oriented, where the best lift is, where the SLP ends up, and consequently, where the high gets pushed. Don't really know what's going on upstream for the GFS to cause these differences. I also don't know if other models have this, it's just the first thing that caught my mind on the GFS. Any of these solutions are still probably plausible but it's definitely weighing on my mind that the GFS has no idea what's going on once this shortwave gets into the SE. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Poimen said: Big picture: I think there is strong confidence in a solid front-end thump for a good portion of the NC Piedmont Saturday night/Sunday morning, transitioning to mixed p-types during the day Sunday. All in all, confidence seems high right now in a significant winter storm that will feature heavy wet snow, sleet, perhaps freezing rain and then plain rain for some. Regardless of the totals, this should be a good way to kick off the winter. Bingo! Post of the night!! No doubt there will be many more changes before we get to Saturday!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Would the 2nd piece of energy diving down on the animation above, behind the storm, be pushing the first piece more NE, or does it not work like that!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Since the NAM is pretty good at modeling the CAD wedge here is a an animation showing the CAD becoming established via dewpoint on Saturday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Newest map updates from WPC: Day 4: Day 5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 35 minutes ago, Lookout said: I'm willing to bet a dollar that the gfs is full of **** for gsp/upstate. canadian is quite a bit colder than previous runs. a whopping 8 degrees colder in fact here. I'm with ya brother. Watch tomorrow and Thursdays Nam runs and see the dew points in the low 20's here and a surface temp 35-37. I'm banking on how the wedge has performed this far in fall. This one is dam near classic set up for wedge counties except for the original air mass is a touch warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Any of these solutions are still probably plausible but it's definitely weighing on my mind that the GFS has no idea what's going on once this shortwave gets into the SE. It reminds me of the SREF...if it ends up being right, it's for the wrong reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Guys I may be off but I think the GFS always has trouble with our systems about 4 or 5 days out. I think it has a particular weakness projecting how the S/w is going to act once it gets onshore. Thinking back through other storms it seems to be all over the place about this same time, then seems to be pretty close by about 48-72 hours out. Remember, it also like to suppress, overcorrect north, then suppress a bit more late in the game. Not too worried about the GFS yet BUT, much of the suite tonight looks to be going with a slightly weaker high anchor, a farther north LP, and resultant trimming of peripheral totals. That's actually climo. Best expectation now is mtns getting nice storm, maybe very big, then NW Piedmont- central NC- eastern/central upstate, etc, in that order for the next best chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Would the 2nd piece of energy diving down on the animation above, behind the storm, be pushing the first piece more NE, or does it not work like that!? To me it looks like they're trying to phase. I think we want them to stay separated. I think the energy wants to consolidate thus, yes, pulling our wave a bit north. I dunno, maybe not..Grit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Since the NAM is pretty good at modeling the CAD wedge here is a an animation showing the CAD becoming established via dewpoint on Saturday. That's what HAS to happen for us periphery peeps (upstate, Clt, Rdu, Nega) to get much wintry stuff. If that is accurate and the push continues, look out. And we all know GFS is terrible with this at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 almost wanting to go back to the miller b esque scenario. Low into eastern Alabama then the secondary takes over east of MYR and south of Wilmington. Then does a weird loop and loops back in over the outer banks. Plenty cold as well is the FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Gefs cutoff is just north of Columbia... Damn it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Trends are not good then! The two best models ( old and new GFS) going N tonight, uggh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Would the 2nd piece of energy diving down on the animation above, behind the storm, be pushing the first piece more NE, or does it not work like that!? 18 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: To me it looks like they're trying to phase. I think we want them to stay separated. I think the energy wants to consolidate thus, yes, pulling our wave a bit north. I dunno, maybe not..Grit? It's a good point Mack and Iceage - yeah, that's why I've said all along that I want the southern wave to be left alone and for it to just track west to east without any northern stream interaction. If northern stream pieces are diving in early, it will want to sling shot the wave a bit northeast or at least raise the heights in the east which means more warming and more precip north - good for VA, bad for us. If it dives in for a late phase that's fine. Not really concerned with what the GFS is doing there. The bigger concern is just the Euro being maybe too far south / too suppressed compared to what really happens at go time. I was thinking earlier how @SnowGoose69 used to say that the Euro has a bias now where it tends to be more suppressed in the mid range compared to other models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Trends are not good then! The two best models ( old and new GFS) going N tonight, uggh FV3 looked fine to me, a touch slower but overall maintained the same general r/s line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3- looks about the same, as ILMRoss said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: FV3- looks about the same, as ILMRoss said. I live in caldwell county.. should i go ahead and buy a roof rake?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I live in caldwell county.. should i go ahead and buy a roof rake?? NO!! Long way to go, I wouldn’t bet on a big snow just yet. I’ve seen models drop a solution it had been showing for days. Day before storm time. I’m not biting on these big accumulations till Thursday night at 0z if it’s still there I will get excited! JMHO Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: NO!! Long way to go, I wouldn’t bet on a big snow just yet. I’ve seen models drop a solution it had been showing for the day before storm time. I’m not biting on these big accumulations till Thursday night at 0z if it’s still there I will get excited! JMHO Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk You tha man. Thanks.. im going to have to order it off of amazon so ill have to order tommorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 You tha man. Thanks.. im going to have to order it off of amazon so ill have to order tommorrowYes 2 day shipping! Those accumulations map are pretty to look at though. Hope we get a nice snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 For folks around the triangle, it's gonna be close. The fact every model has basically flip flopped one way or another tells me there may be surprises. Greensboro west is gonna jackpot. The rain/snow line looks like it can be be anywhere between i-95 and Durham co. Certainly still time left for the models to trend colder and put more of the state in the game the closer we get to the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Anybody doing a pbp with the 0z Euro?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Anybody doing a pbp with the 0z Euro? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I would but only have the freebies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks a touch slower and the high is parked on the coast of virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks a touch slower and the high is parked on the coast of virginiaHow’s it looking for our neck of the woods?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Yikes...the euro is WAY north...HUNDREDS OF MILES north...ouch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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