Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Huge h5 difference between 18z and 0z. Almost comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 This one is going to hammer the Mid Atlantic. Must be right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Big run incoming at 108-114 for NC/SW VA. Low sitting over MYR at 114. Snow entering DC/Balt area. The high hauled a** out of there this go around allowing the storm to inch up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 and then the low jumps over myrtle and the obx and areas outside the mtns go to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Worst run of the day for central NC. I think the inability of the high to really build in, and for the storm to dig far enough south is hurting our chances. Since the GFS doesn't seem to be converging on anything, I'll just throw this one on the pile and wait for 10 more runs. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 We have a cold rain for GSP according to GFS. Hopefully it is model issue with the CAD and not a sign to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: Worst run of the day for central NC. I think the inability of the high to really build in, and for the storm to dig far enough south is hurting our chances. Since the GFS doesn't seem to be converging on anything, I'll just throw this one on the pile and wait for 10 more runs. Yea to lend credence to your statement the damn thing has been all over the place and is out of touch with some of the other guidance. It’s def a plausible scenario at this point however. Main takeaway is it distances itself from the continuation of adjusting south like other guidance did earlier. I can’t same I really trust the ICON for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Yea that was the worst run in days for Central NC, and even less snow in WNC compared to past runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Congrats MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, No snow for you said: We have a cold rain for GSP according to GFS. Hopefully it is model issue with the CAD and not a sign to come. It’s the Bastardi curse! He said it would affect the big cities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: yea sounding looks much better at kclt this run. all snow thru 96. Thats AWESOME to see! If I am not mistaken, this is the first ALL snow sounding for CLT for this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 UKMet really evacuates the cold air at 850, pushing 0 deg line all the way up into S VA...didn't expect that based on the run at h5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Dang Canadian is almost a carbon copy of the GFS track wise although 850s are def colder comparing it to GFS. I feel like this is what the nam would look like if it had the capability to run this far out and show a fair depiction of where the winter weather would set up. Still a hell of a setup for a winter storm for almost all of NC, at least front end wise. Nothing to be grumpy about imo. No 30” totals but still for early December standards take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Let's see how the GEFS handles it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 People need to relax. These movements are noise. Canadian came south and GFS has foot+ totals in WNC. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, No snow for you said: We have a cold rain for GSP according to GFS. Hopefully it is model issue with the CAD and not a sign to come. I'm willing to bet a dollar that the gfs is full of **** for gsp/upstate. 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: canadian is quite a bit colder than previous runs. a whopping 8 degrees colder in fact here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 So it begins.. we really need that confluence to trend stronger over the NE or the cold air will be outta here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Surely that CAD would be stronger? I mean the high definitely rockets out of there late but for a good portion of the event it is locked in there yet the 850s are very warm this run. Interested to see where the OP GFS stands within its suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: People need to relax. These movements are noise. Canadian came south and GFS has foot+ totals in WNC. It’s rasy to say when your sitting in a spot that a bad run only gets you a foot! Everyone on the edges, don’t have much wiggle room for N shifts or noise! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Sitting here looking at 7-10" amounts from the GFS for the Triad and felt lousy for a second, then I realized that 7-10" is a really good storm. lol. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: It’s rasy to say when your sitting in a spot that a bad run only gets you a foot! Everyone on the edges, don’t have much wiggle room for N shifts or noise! You should have learned from experience not to get your hopes up in first place, when you're sitting in those areas. Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Surely that CAD would be stronger? I mean the high definitely rockets out of there late but for a good portion of the event it is locked in there yet the 850s are very warm this run. Interested to see where the OP GFS stands within its suite. The pressure gradient and packed isobars are impressive with this system. In general all show a 12mb pressure difference across ga and 20mb from west ga to nc at it's maximum. That's about as good as one can hope to see. Indeed you see it in the 20 to 40 knot low level northeasterly flow across ga/carolinas. If the nam is correct in it's depiction of lower dewpoints, surface pressures, and much colder low levels, you can pretty much toss the gfs surface temps in the trash. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kelani Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 That last Canadian run looks exactly like what happens in Caldwell county, NC every darn time the early models predict something big. Excluding '93, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, SLAMSTORM22 said: Ridiculous analysis and comments again off one run of the flip floppiest models the GFS. Follow the Ensembles... Sheesh enough complaining. if you don't like it, leave. 7 5 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Lookout said: I'm willing to bet a dollar that the gfs is full of **** for gsp/upstate. canadian is quite a bit colder than previous runs. a whopping 8 degrees colder in fact here. I'll take that bet. Living in upstate SC for 30 years can make one quite the pessimist. I've even come up with my own formula to determine snow amounts. Take whatever is being modeled/forecasted and cut it in half. Take that total and cut it in half again. Whatever is remaining from that total, assume at least 1" of it will be either sleet, freezing rain, or cold rain. Be happy if what's left of the total is snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 In other news, the Canadian says "Don't sleep on that backside deform band." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Lookout said: enough complaining. if you don't like it, leave. I hope I didn’t come across as complaining. Just commenting the GFS doesn’t show much for GSP. I agree it is one model run with a model that will not exist In a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GFS takes the low from Jax, to Myrtle, to Hatters and then rockets ene from there ots. Doesn't look very reliable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Lookout said: The pressure gradient and packed isobars are impressive with this system. In general all show a 12mb pressure difference across ga and 20mb from west ga to nc at it's maximum. That's about as good as one can hope to see. Indeed you see it in the 20 to 40 knot low level northeasterly flow across ga/carolinas. If the nam is correct in it's depiction of lower dewpoints, surface pressures, and much colder low levels, you can pretty much toss the gfs surface temps in the trash. I would ride the V3, it's been solid IMO, and even the 18z "old" GFS had some wonky stuff, too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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