Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: 18z EPS Mean compared to the 12z EPS Mean was a bit more amplified with the wave...a little north with the sfc and 850mb low tracks. It was a little warmer from Bama thru TN again as the low tracks across the gulf coast while maintain the relative cold east of the Apps...so it continues to increase its recognition of the damming high to the north. The closed off 850mb low on the mean tracks from Birmingham, AL to Cape Hatteras. That track is very good for the N NC Mtns into SW VA, but problematic for warm nosing aloft from the upstate into parts of central NC What did the 18z mean look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Snowing here in Todd ATM...who should have the honor to stitch the obs. thread??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z EPS Mean compared to the 12z EPS Mean was a bit more amplified with the wave...a little north with the sfc and 850mb low tracks. It was a little warmer from Bama thru TN again as the low tracks across the gulf coast while maintain the relative cold east of the Apps...so it continues to increase its recognition of the damming high to the north. The closed off 850mb low on the mean tracks from Birmingham, AL to Cape Hatteras. That track is very good for the N NC Mtns into SW VA, but problematic for warm nosing aloft from the upstate into parts of central NC Thanks grit, hopefully that corrects south tonight. It seems to be going back and forth, bit north, bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: What did the 18z mean look like? I think you mean the snow map. Here it is, but again, I'd be leary that it's showing too much snow on the southern and eastern edges here where there would likely be mixing cutting totals way back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheapdad00 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Poimen said: FV 3 Kuchera through 0Z Mon. A Leeside minimum on the Chatham/Wake county line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, cheapdad00 said: A Leeside minimum on the Chatham/Wake county line? I've seen it before! I'm guessing maybe it is trying to factor in Jordan Lake and the "hills" west and south of Chapel Hill. But I can't imagine it really making that much of a difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 49 minutes ago, Poimen said: The NAM finishes with an impressive 1041 mb HP over IL at hour 84. sub zero 850 temps well into SC and dew points into the teens in northern NC. yes it's the 84 hour nam but fwiw, looks like precip would start as snow or snow/sleet/rain mix by the time it gets to the savannah river sat morning. Nam has temps into the mid to upper 30s, dewpoints in the upper 20s..with even colder/drier air and ne flow off the surface. Nam sure looks a lot more promising than the gfs still. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GGEM is tracking close to the previous EURO..a shift for this model. I see a trend here...and it's a good one. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: Snowing here in Todd ATM...who should have the honor to stitch the obs. thread??? Brick.. only brick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: GGEM is tracking close to the previous EURO..a shift for this model. I see a trend here...and it's a good one. Still south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, bess said: Brick.. only brick. Yep, Brick only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, bess said: Brick.. only brick. Then it's agreed ladies and gentlemen...the hat tips to Brick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I'm amazed at the GFS weakening that high. None of the other models are doing it. I suspect it just sucks at modelling these highs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Gfs faster with the LP at 78. Had it just west of Brownsville at 18z and now has it just east of Dallas. Faster and further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, WidreMann said: I'm amazed at the GFS weakening that high. None of the other models are doing it. I suspect it just sucks at modelling these highs. It is going into retirement, it don't give a damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Faster and further north its identical at 84. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GFS failboat setting sail! I can go to bet early, but will wait for the amazing ensembles, that will look nothing like the op! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: Faster and further north I deleted cause it’s like it auto corrected at 84 and is in line with the 18z LP placement wise. Qpf shield is more expansive on the northern side of the storm however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: its identical at 84. It's further east, but about the same latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The new UKMet looks fairly similar to its last run...it continues to slide the sfc low out off the GA/SC coast and on out to sea. It has a late phase, but maybe not as aggressive as the last run...but didn't trend north it doesn't look like on the early maps 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Cant get a much better HP placement as you see on the 84hr image if you want snow in NC. 1038 parked on the IN/OH border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GFS looks like it lost that positive tilt it had in 18z so this run should at least be juicer in qpf, like previous non-18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: its identical at 84. Yeah at 84 the low is identical and the high is actually out ahead a little better with a slightly better push in the 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Out to 96, LP ticked slightly SE of 18z... HP 1mb weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: GFS looks like it lost that positive tilt it had in 18z so this run should at least be juicer in qpf, like previous non-18z runs Yeah precip shield and thicknesses are a bit north this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 looks like a snow sounding thru 102 at clt. maybe a bit colder this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 @102, LP is ever so slightly a little north and east of 18z position, in and around the Destin, FL region. HP looks to have slid just slightly eastward as well compared to 18z. Heavy snows NC mountains and northern tier of NC zones, beginning to enter SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, WidreMann said: I'm amazed at the GFS weakening that high. None of the other models are doing it. I suspect it just sucks at modelling these highs. i pretty much had the exact same thought in my head...the differences at 925mb for example between it and the nam are something over the carolinas. At hour 78 , nam has northerly flow and 925mb temps 5c colder while the gfs has southwesterly flow at 925mb over the carolinas. Nam is about 4mb higher with surface pressures over the mid atlantic than the gfs at 84 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 yea sounding looks much better at kclt this run. all snow thru 96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Lookout said: i pretty much had the exact same thought in my head...the differences at 925mb for example between it and the nam are something over the carolinas. At hour 78 for example, nam has northerly flow and 925mb temps 5c colder while the gfs has southwesterly flow at 925mb over the carolinas. Nam is about 4mb higher with surface pressures over the mid atlantic than the gfs at 84 hours. We def know brother how that plays out in the end. The nam kicks the gfs a** all day in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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