Wow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The s/w is less amped at this stage (less phasing of energy) and the high is further east, indicative of increased confluence. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Wow - cool to see the GFS trying to show wraparound CAD moving into SE Tennessee at 108 hours. I think that's a good indicator of how much the models may be underestimating the wedge. Paging Larry Cosgrove! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looks more like 6z GFS than 12z. Did we like that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Snowing asheville charlotte at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Uh, hello -- the GFS basically stalled the low from 108 to 114 hours -- barely moved from Pt. St Joe to Lake City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 @114, snow over most of NC, even RDU 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Verbatim this is going to be really marginal on temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Then changes over S of I-85 at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 At 120, the 0 line is running from CLT to Salisbury to RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Really threading the needle here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The western triangle (I.e. Durham and chapel hill) are still really looking like the dividing line. Gonna be close as of now. Still a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 No High at HR.120. Bogus run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Much more modest QPF from 18z GFS vs. 12z -- less than half the ouput in some places -- I guess lack of cooling from heavier precip could have affected temps. Edit: Could also just be that 18z is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 A really good track. I imagine it would be colder. More sleet along the R/S line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: Lol, what in the world is that? feedback issues? Squiggly wiggly... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: Lol, what in the world is that? feedback issues? Squiggly wiggly... Cray cray run!! no HP @120 We Toss! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Cold rain and a little sleet for gsp. So much for the glory of the 12z runs. But yes the GFS has zero handle on the CAD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Gonna be a bit of backside snow Monday through Tuesday with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Cray cray run!! no HP @120 We Toss! lol Did it just disappear? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Here comes the backside blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 As long as we keep having these awesome ensemble tracks that keep creeping colder and more suppressed, I won't worry about op runs until Thursday. Other than UK and Euro. I want them in my camp continually and right now. That goes without saying right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Kuchera output on pivotal weather has ~20" around the Triad, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernVAwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Despite the fact it’s slightly suspicious I like this run for my area! Snow 8 am Sunday to 8 pm monday with 16 inches kuchera ratio. Despite the fact it seems off interesting to note the coastal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The analysis on each model run in this thread is the worst thing I've ever read on any weather site. Everyone is worried about their backyard so you get 20 different people saying it's good, it's bad, it's good, it's bad. Moderators please control this especially as we get closer 12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, SLAMSTORM22 said: The analysis on each model run in this thread is the worst thing I've ever read on any weather site. Everyone is worried about their backyard so you get 20 different people saying it's good, it's bad, it's good, it's bad. Moderators please control this especially as we get closer LOL......you don't have to read the threads this is how we roll in the SE forum we are much less uptight than the folks from other forums......I suggest rolling with the punches or visiting the Sanitarium thread.....or going back to the NYC/MA forums since your in NJ. 9 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'm not sure if this really matches the model, but I believe this is based on the Kuchera method, FWIW: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, SLAMSTORM22 said: The analysis on each model run in this thread is the worst thing I've ever read on any weather site. Everyone is worried about their backyard so you get 20 different people saying it's good, it's bad, it's good, it's bad. Moderators please control this especially as we get closer Every weather board, every winter threat and I have been on these boards longer than some of these posters have been alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 @Orangeburgwx & I are still "fishing" Nice Spread of Baits out, Trolling & wait & see, 25 degree dew(s),, Lower, south & deeper.. Otherwise I hope you Folks Up state get IceAgeSnow(s).. Enough to start a Glacier! As always We might have to "wait" on the backend here.. KILM says but may see some snow mixing in on the back end as cooler air advects in as shortwave rides through the Carolinas Mon night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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