CaryWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Well, sounds like Wake county is bowing out of the game. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, wake4est said: The NAM is primed to bring a fat juicy storm to the SE when it gets in range... Not so much for us I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Well, sounds like Wake county is bowing out of the game. Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowinnc Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Nah. I hope that you’re right but the trends are definitely going in the wrong direction for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Dew points from the 84 HR NAM: Mid teens throughout VA and NW NC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, snowinnc said: I hope that you’re right but the trends are definitely going in the wrong direction for us. They're not really. We just aren't getting in on the big snow totals. There is still a good shot at a winter storm here. It will likely be mixy, but that's to be expected, honestly. If we have a CAD situation like it looks like now, it will overperform. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It is a near certainty that it is over for RDU. I just hope I can find some time to sneak over to the Triad. This is a west of I-85 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Poimen said: Dew points from the 84 HR NAM: Mid teens throughout VA and NW NC. What site is this from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, packfan98 said: What site is this from? Here you go: https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, eyewall said: It is a near certainty that it is over for RDU. I just hope I can find some time to sneak over to the Triad. This is a west of I-85 storm. If the NAM is on to the colder temps (better CAD setup), I think we can get a significant storm. The question is do we get a 2009 storm (miss for us) or a 2002 storm (major ice storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: It is a near certainty that it is over for RDU. I just hope I can find some time to sneak over to the Triad. This is a west of I-85 storm. A certainty 120 hours out? I get the pessimism if I was talking about Johnston or SE Wake but I still think North and West Wake plus durham and a lot of orange are still in this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Raleigh will be in the running for 1-3 inches of front end thump before switching to... something else. Learn from the NE from that mid Nov storm... that front end thump can stymie even the most experienced models and forecasters, especially with a solid CAD in place. Might not happen, but I’d keep an eye on that possibility. Lastly, I would not make any absolute statements about surface temps until we’ve seen a few cycles of the nam, raleigh still firmly capable of a significant sleet/ice event in my opinion 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Raleigh will be in the running for 1-3 inches of front end thump before switching to... something else. Learn from the NE from that mid Nov storm... that front end thump can stymie even the most experienced models and forecasters, especially with a solid CAD in place. Might not happen, but I’d keep an eye on that possibility. Lastly, I would not make any absolute statements about surface temps until we’ve seen a few cycles of the nam, raleigh still firmly capable of a significant sleet/ice event in my opinion Thanks for the fresh update. As I recall front end thumps don't work out so well for our area usually. Back to the sw piedmont usually has better luck. The moisture always seem to get here too late and not before the nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, Poimen said: Dew points from the 84 HR NAM: Mid teens throughout VA and NW NC. 25 degree dew point for me... Definitely going in the right direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, griteater said: 12z EPS Clown....similar largescale footprint as previous run, but higher totals (more consistency I would assume) Wait, what? Is that a 12-15 inch mean on the EPS ensembles? Trying to work here people, how did this happen? lol. I don't think I've ever seen that kind of thing. Beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Surface reflection on the ICON is south of 12z at 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18z icon appears to becoming in a bit less amped then the 12z runs. The last few runs of the icon snowfall mean has shifted south. Lets see where it ends up this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 32 minutes ago, Poimen said: Dew points from the 84 HR NAM: Mid teens throughout VA and NW NC. I look forward to the raging virga storm. Right on the North side of the gradient is a great place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18z GFS seems to start off south and faster through 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: Wait, what? Is that a 12-15 inch mean on the EPS ensembles? Trying to work here people, how did this happen? lol. I don't think I've ever seen that kind of thing. Beautiful. How much is sleet? Who knows, the ensembles won't get the thermal profiles right anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18Z Nam identical to Euro at 84 hrs.. GFS & FV3 have been faster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18z GFS has the high shifting westward rather than moving along with the precip. That may open the door for the low to move a little further north this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18z GFS further south through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GFS slowed back down to its previous run by 72. Looks nearly identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Slowed down a bit through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GFS is slower with the southern s/w progression, closer to Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Wow said: GFS is slower with the southern s/w progression, closer to Euro Does slower help this thing phase with the n/s s/w in your opinion down the line here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Yeah slower now and a bit further south. Possibly a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 might end up pulling north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Man I take that back. 1037 HP up in Ohio shunting this thing even further south thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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