BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Control run crushes just about everyone somehow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Control run crushes just about everyone somehow. Can you post? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Lol Control Run gives 10" + for all of Wake County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 EPS as well as the control increase once again..... the control run was crazy. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 EPS Mean compare from 06z to 12z....at 500mb it had the same slight changes as the op run (good changes for upstate into central NC). It has the northern stream phasing in late a bit. Sfc low track is similar but a little closer to the coast off the Carolinas. Initially it was a little warmer thru Bama into TN and colder in the Carolinas (more damming), but it was a little warmer in eastern and central NC as the low went off the Carolina coast. This is a textbook look at 500mb for snow in upstate into central NC (and to the NW) when the wave is in central Texas in this kind of setup 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12z EPS Clown....similar largescale footprint as previous run, but higher totals (more consistency I would assume) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 38 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Gives me over 2.5 feet of snow. Which model. My virgin eyes have not seen that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12z EPS Clown....similar largescale footprint as previous run, but higher totals (more consistency I would assume) Hot spot still continues to be along the escarpment, esepcially where the east/west escarpment meet north/south there in the Saluda, Hendersonville, Bat Cave, Gerton area. I can see that area getting rocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Hot spot still continues to be along the escarpment, esepcially where the east/west escarpment meet north/south there in the Saluda, Hendersonville, Bat Cave, Gerton area. I can see that area getting rocked! Yep prepare for the worst (or best!) there now and see where it goes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12"-15" mean for all of the western Piedmont ain't nothing to sneeze at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It's strange to me to see these northern midlands (SC) totals modeled, when the 3-hour loop of the model does not show a snow/sleet line reaching down this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run... THEN the map is posted. Do y'all know where Wake is? That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The 12Z FV3 has been really slow to load. Here's the Kuchera output through 144. Umm... Anyway, much more conservative in the Carolinas than these other models we have seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwick20 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Burrell and Oconeexman, how do you feel about the dreaded warm nose that seems to get us with every storm. Seems to be showing it's ugly head again doesn't it? Western Oconee county and eastern Pickens county seem to be on the lower totals as usual with areas just to our east and west doing much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run... THEN the map is posted. Do y'all know where Wake is? That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category. Control run did show around 10" for Wake. The EPS Mean was a lot lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: I read these posts about Wake Co getting 10+ inches and central NC looking good this run... THEN the map is posted. Do y'all know where Wake is? That EPS Clown map shows most of Wake in the 1-2" category. Euro control run. It basically has 10+ totals over Wake. More west. Regular Euro kills us with WAA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: Euro control run. It basically has 10+ totals over Wake. More west. Regular Euro kills us with WAA. Thanks for clarifying! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: The 12Z FV3 has been really slow to load. Here's the Kuchera output through 144. Umm... Anyway, much more conservative in the Carolinas than these other models we have seen. It's track is faster/farther west than the others..hence the difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Models aren't just depicting a HECS for Carolinas/Virginia; this is bordering on a BECS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FWIW: The NAVGEM looks a lot like the EURO. SLP track across the FL Panhandle before making the turn NE and off the Carolina coast. Like the EURO, precip doesn't make it to NC until Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 This is a rare event for the south. Are all of you prepared for a big snow event ? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Models aren't just depicting a HECS for Carolinas/Virginia; this is bordering on a BECS! Eh. Biblical would have to crush more people including 95 from DC to Portland Historic regional blockbuster sure, biblical not IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: This is a rare event for the south. Are all of you prepared for a big snow event ? No one can prepare for 2' except local municipalities off the lakes lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: This is a rare event for the south. Are all of you prepared for a big snow event ? yep, i have my umbrella ready for the rain and a streetlight ready to squint into looking for the stray snowflake that mixes in. 4 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 For those interested, here is the AFD from KGSP: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This is a rare event for the south. Are all of you prepared for a big snow event ? We are briming roads as we type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: No one can prepare for 2' except local municipalities off the lakes lol. A few years ago I went up to Snowshoe, West Virginia for the 3 foot blizzard that also hit DC (was something to behold), plan on being in Boone/Banner Elk this weekend. Had never been in snow like that before, One of those things I will remember forever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: We are briming roads as we type. Lmao they will be soon, but pointlessly so. It does absolutely nothing with heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, cwick20 said: Burrell and Oconeexman, how do you feel about the dreaded warm nose that seems to get us with every storm. Seems to be showing it's ugly head again doesn't it? Western Oconee county and eastern Pickens county seem to be on the lower totals as usual with areas just to our east and west doing much better. Yea I'm not gonna worry yet..if the higher res models start showing it after tomorrow I will start worrying. Right now I'm in the "cad not being modeled correctly" camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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