BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Can someone tell me when the snow begins in Dry Fork, VA? Is it Saturday night, Sunday Morning...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Grit, would you feel safe saying the mtns around boone/ashe could see over a foot realistically? Also are Temps a concern based off the latest models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 So please correct me if I'm wrong. For me in the Upstate of SC it seems like the FV3, Ukie, and Euro are all pretty close with totals for my area with the GFS seeming to move a little southwest with it's totals. Good trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, pbrown85 said: So please correct me if I'm wrong. For me in the Upstate of SC it seems like the FV3, Ukie, and Euro are all pretty close with totals for my area with the GFS seeming to move a little southwest with it's totals. Good trends? Very good trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, griteater said: Final With the suites constantly coming in further south than the OP, I'm starting to tetter back a few feet from the cliff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Cheers for Western Ears said: Grit, would you feel safe saying the mtns around boone/ashe could see over a foot realistically? Also are Temps a concern based off the latest models? Boone / Ashe look great right now, certainly better than yesterday. You have plenty of wiggle room with temps up there. Given the strong southern wave moving slowly scenario, this has the potential to be right up there with some of the big ones...but see the 48hr rule in my signature below...models will continue to change 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 how are temps for clt on the euro? initial start as snow before a changeover to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, eyewall said: Along and east of US-1: Reserve your spot in the sanitarium now West of US-1 to the Triad/Charlotte area: Game on! West of the Triad/Mountains: This will be one to remember That is your 12z Euro verdict. Upstate SC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Weenie up weenies!! Let's reel this in!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Can someone tell me when the snow begins in Dry Fork, VA? Is it Saturday night, Sunday Morning...? Midday Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, griteater said: 3-4 inch liquid in W NC into the upstate....El Nino at its best How much for Jonesville? Is that a 30” dot over Shetley?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Check out @RaleighWx’s Tweet: Check out @RaleighWx’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1070024504171212800?s=09 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 With this looking like a CAD event with no real other source of cold air, east of US-1 looks like a cold rain.. All the models seem to be trending toward that sharp US-1 cut off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Wow jackpot over NEGa's house for areas not in NC! My snow hole shrunk considerably to a county wide 6-12". Lots of wild runs for a couple more days then some fine tuning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Mods, can we curb constant MBY questions? I'm just sifting through them even though the snowfall map has been posted--it's getting slightly annoying 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: With this looking like a CAD event with no real other source of cold air, east of US-1 looks like a cold rain.. All the models seem to be trending toward that sharp US-1 cut off. See you guys next potential event to be let down again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, MillerA said: Check out @RaleighWx’s Tweet: Check out @RaleighWx’s Tweet: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1070024504171212800?s=09 Given its early December p-type is gonna be crucial...like Allan said The mountains might be the only lock right now for all snow. Be skeptical of these runs until you get into NAM territory....or don't and enjoy the weenie party haha. 6 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Gives me over 2.5 feet of snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival. I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Been a wild ride here along the escarpment i was three when 93 hit my son is 2 1/2 feels like da ju vue lol I will feel alot better when we get in the nams wheelhouse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival. I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength Any idea when this will become apparent? I'm guessing we have to wait until the storm is unfolding to know for sure?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 EURO Master with 41.9" in Lake Lure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, packfan98 said: Any idea when this will become apparent? I'm guessing we have to wait until the storm is unfolding to know for sure?? Oh yeah, I think it makes sense to have less confidence with what happens in the northern stream from Canada into the Great Lakes and the Northeast than we do with the southern wave. The damming high is a feather in the cap even if the source region is less than ideal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, griteater said: IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival. I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength Yea, that vort dropping down from Canada on the Euro was super strong this time. Vort's change up there pretty wildly from run to run, and I think that's where most of our variance is coming from in the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: With this looking like a CAD event with no real other source of cold air, east of US-1 looks like a cold rain.. All the models seem to be trending toward that sharp US-1 cut off. We're used to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, griteater said: IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival. I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength The high in the plains/NE, has been consistently getting stronger on most modeling the last few runs!? Was around 1035/6 and now 1039/40! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, griteater said: IMO, the biggest thing to watch for the upstate to central NC crowd is how firmly the confluence pattern holds and is reinforced over the Northeast prior to the storms arrival. I think we'll pretty much be able to count on the wave trekking west to east and holding its strength Agreed, the ensembles seem rock steady on rolling this thing east along the panhandle and off the coast. I hope the FV3 idea of the inland tug is out to lunch. Temps, confluence and CAD seem to be the question mark still. What on the 500 maps do we look for better/worse confluence? Thank you Grit for the excellent play by play on this storm by the way... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Euro 3 hour precip depiction GIF courtesy of Ryan Maue https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1070027792589471745 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowNiner said: Agreed, the ensembles seem rock steady on rolling this thing east along the panhandle and off the coast. I hope the FV3 idea of the inland tug is out to lunch. Temps, confluence and CAD seem to be the question mark still. What on the 500 maps do we look for better/worse confluence? Thank you Grit for the excellent play by play on this storm by the way... Thank you, yeah burrel mentioned it....the last few runs of the Euro (and EPS) have been increasing the strength of a shortwave that drops into the Great Lakes just ahead of our storm wave....we want that to be fairly strong and drop in so that the heights along the east coast don't have a chance to lift north. I would assume the better shortwave trends thru the Great Lakes is stemming from increased ridging in W Canada, but I haven't looked 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 good thing i bought an umbrella yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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