mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Upstatescweather said: Thanks Mackerel just trying to learn some and trying to get involved in convo but thanks for clearing that up for me just know it is hard as hell to get what we need around here lol I agree with that! There are storms where we are waiting on cold to come across the mountains, and they don’t work out 99% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Euro is definitely slower than the gfs and some of the other models. Slowest of the group in getting this storm in here. That’s another factor to fine tune Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Seems more to me that the EURO continues to stay south... where as the GFS and FV3 GFS is staying more north. Definitely true. But at least as of 6z, I haven’t looked at 12z yet, the OP GFS is among the furthest north of its suite. GEFS supports a southern solution at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Euro is definitely slower than the gfs and some of the other models. Slowest of the group in getting this storm in here. That’s another factor to fine tune It will sound weenie-ish, but the stronger the southern wave, the slower it will likely track...and the models tend to underestimate a healthy wave like this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Euro is definitely slower than the gfs and some of the other models. Slowest of the group in getting this storm in here. That’s another factor to fine tune Euro is about a perfect track for your area as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, BornAgain13 said: That's about a perfect track for my area.... wow Would I be fringed up here you think man with a track like that? I worry the dry air would inhibit from northern extent reaching me, as you know the dewpoints are gonna be dry as heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 And it's still snowing after this...let me go see if I still have a job now 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: It will sound weenie-ish, but the stronger the southern wave, the slower it will likely track...and the models tend to underestimate a healthy wave like this So essentially the comma head will be more expansive in your opinion when the time frame gets closer because of the strength and magnitude of this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The northern stream wave does dive in late for a big phase...it's UKMet / Euro combo...tantalizing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: So essentially the comma head will be more expansive in your opinion when the time frame gets closer because of the strength and magnitude of this thing? Regardless of track, yes, if it Miller A's like this, models basically always underestimate the precip on the NW side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Would I be fringed up here you think man with a track like that? I worry the dry air would inhibit from northern extent reaching me, as you know the dewpoints are gonna be dry as heck. The track looked good but apparently the NW shield fringed you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Euro snow totals took a big jump SW also just like theGFS and GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Final 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: And it's still snowing after this...let me go see if I still have a job now Wake County the cutoff line? Not surprised haha 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Final Wow..... This one exited me nearly as much as that bonkers 12z run a couple days ago. Maybe even more given that it’s a couple days closer to the event. This one has been fun to track for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Interesting developments with that northern stream energy coming down late.. Mountains could really see over 2 feet if it phases 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: Final Historic. And while every weenie's dream come true, also ... a natural disaster, if it verifies. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3-4 inch liquid in W NC into the upstate....El Nino at its best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 That still looks like a foot of snow in Chapel Hill... unreal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Ha-map shows 24" for me...I'll take 6" and be happy lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: Interesting developments with that northern stream energy coming down late.. Mountains could really see over 2 feet if it phases Yup! This is the feature I have been watching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Final Take it the bank, Mecklenburg minimum of “only” 12-15” is over my house while just 5 miles due west across the river gets you in 20”+ totals. That’s an amazing clown map! Sounds like the H5 maps were tantalizing close to something even more special, if that’s actually possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Still all systems go at 93...it's a touch south of 00z so farBeing in the mtns I really like that number 93, especially with a 19 in front of it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Interesting developments with that northern stream energy coming down late.. Mountains could really see over 2 feet if it phases If it phases, we could see 2 feet... and the mountains close to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Can someone post the 12z Euro QPF Final ? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Interesting developments with that northern stream energy coming down late.. Mountains could really see over 2 feet if it phases You need to come home! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Along and east of US-1: Reserve your spot in the sanitarium now West of US-1 to the Triad/Charlotte area: Game on! West of the Triad/Mountains: This will be one to remember That is your 12z Euro verdict. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The trend at the 850 level that past few runs has been nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I will take the Euro and be happy for the rest of the winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I don't like that map. Shows southern wake with almost zilch! haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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