DopplerWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 encouraging to see the icon bring the snow line south finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Think I saw 12-14”!!Mac doesn’t know what to do with himself. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: encouraging to see the icon bring the snow line south finally. Surface temps are cold as well. I don't think the rain/frozen view shows ice. RDU down towards Charlotte stays at or below freezing for a good portion of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, FallsLake said: yep, much better: At hour 150 there's a good 6-8" along and north of the I-40 corridor from GSO to HKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, jjwxman said: At hour 150 there's a good 6-8" along and north of the I-40 corridor from GSO to HKY. And I'm thinking a significant ice storm to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 GFS out to 54, 1mb stronger HP starting to deep dive into northern Nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Is it not a rarity to have so many models on board with a similar storm track at this point? I feel as if most of the time it is 2 vs. 2 or 3 vs. 1. I realize the fact that some solutions are warmer than others but they seem to all have a similar storm track (slider rather than cutter). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GFS closes off a contour at h5 right off the Cali coast....ticking a little stronger coming in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Per GFS, I’m looking at anywhere between 1.75”-2.25” of QPF. It is unreal. The ground around here is saturated already. Our normal rainfall for the year is 48.50”. We have blown past that. I’m already at 65” for the year and fully expect to hit 68” before 2018 is said and done. That is insane. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I feel like a lot of times, the models underestimate the strength of waves coming ashore from the Pacific, due to the lack of data in the region. The often tend to verify stronger when they move ashore, which may have implications down the road. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: Per GFS, I’m looking at anywhere between 1.75”-2.25” of QPF. It is unreal. The ground around here is saturated already. Our normal rainfall for the year is 48.50”. We have blown past that. I’m already at 65” for the year and fully expect to hit 68” before 2018 is said and done. That is insane. . You might get over 70 buddy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 You might get over 70 buddyIf that were a temperature forecast I’d be okay. 70” of rain in a calendar year for a non-tropical area is bonkers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Yeah, as others have alluded to, the NAM, and it’s 3km nest, usually have the most accurate depiction with CAD. The reason? I think it’s all resolution- since CAD is driven by topography, you need to accurately represent that topography to accurately model a CAD! The lower resolution of globals see mountains as 25x25 km raised lumps... while NAM and other higher resolution has the resolution to pick out individual mountains, valleys, ridges, and peaks. I think that is really important in terms of accurately modeling what kind of cold air bleeds down from the parent high, and how long it sticks around. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, tramadoc said: If that were a temperature forecast I’d be okay. 70” of rain in a calendar year for a non-tropical area is bonkers . I'm at -2.88" on the year, even if I only get a hard cold rain I am hoping to shave a chuck of that off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: Yeah, as others have alluded to, the NAM, and it’s 3km nest, usually have the most accurate depiction with CAD. The reason? I think it’s all resolution- since CAD is driven by topography, you need to accurately represent that topography to accurately model a CAD! The lower resolution of globals see mountains as 25x25 km raised lumps... while NAM and other higher resolution has the resolution to pick out individual mountains, valleys, ridges, and peaks. I think that is really important in terms of accurately modeling what kind of cold air bleeds down from the parent high, and how long it sticks around. . The canadian always seems to do well with that too, not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 One thing to keep in mind is with the saturated ground and many trees that have been weakened by Michael and Florence, and many still have foliage, then you add heavy wet snow or ice, we are going to have a lot of power outages from falling trees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looks like everything is well within noise range with the last run through hour 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, jburns said: Let me add my warning. As we get closer to the event, posts like this will find you on the naughty list. Lol for the telling the truth? Wow this is funny. I mention how models have trended warmer, which is a logical observation, and now I am the bad guy here. Science be damned, right. Can things change, sure. Do they often change in a positive direction south of VA, NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Everything a touch south (cold air and low pressure) through 96 hours of 12z GFS. EDIT: Hmmm, also more negative tilt at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The canadian always seems to do well with that too, not sure why. I don’t know how much of that is the Canadian’s depiction of the CAD, or its general cold bias (it always seems to have the coldest temps in general of all the storms I’ve tracked around here). When I still lived in Wilmington, that model was my saving grace a lot lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 Temp profiles at 102 are colder(both 2m and 850mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GFS confining snow to only mtns at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The Canadian bumped south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Snow from AVL to Winston at 108.. wedge looks a little healthier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 108: LP is inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Heavy snow looks like from Charlotte N&W at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Heavy snow at 108 for much of Western NC into the I 40 corridor. Rain in CLT but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 120 LP is over Savannah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Crushing snow at 114-120 over a big part of west-central NC on the GFS....hawt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Strange -- GFS takes surface low north of 6z position, but CAD is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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