griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, CentralNC said: Happens every time. A lifetime of storm failures tends to do that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, pbrown85 said: So I have seen people talk about the NAM at this range not being accurate, then some people saying that it does a great job with the temp profiles in these situations? Is the NAM to be believed with it showing the cold getting down to upstate SC or are people just hugging the NAM because it shows the temps we need? I trust the NAM with thermal profiles in these situations, other details are much more iffy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, jjwxman said: Like this? 12z NAM: Yes. What the upstate and NEGA needs is for those upper teens in WNC to bleed our way. With dps in the mid to upper 20s our wetbulbs would likely be above freezing, so we'd get just cold rain or a melting slop that never accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I know that the NAM in the past has been relatively good with thermal profiles, but would you guys agree that the NAM has somewhat of a cold bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, griteater said: A lifetime of storm failures tends to do that Not every storm is going to produce the same outcome. And we are all well aware of this notion. Yet, here we are, lol. No one in Atlanta thought they were going to measuring snow if feet 4 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 15 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z NAM Surface Wet Bulb Temps on Friday - the white line is 32 deg Cool graphic, thanks for posting. It's retreating pretty fast until that last frame, then appears to retrograde a bit. I would be interested to see the frames for Sat and Sun when they come out. The wetbulbs on this map are colder than the dps on the other map for Sat. That can only happen if the dps really plummet on Sat, or the wetbulbs really shoot up. Wetbulbs can't be colder than dps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I really doubt this storm ends up as 100% snow for anyone except the mountains, including the foothills. The ratio of sleet to snow obviously grows as you push further east but the question is how much sleet. I do feel pretty confident right now that it's either going to be sleet or snow at this juncture IMBY. If I was s&e of 85(Cary, Raleigh, Most of Wake and Johnston), I'd be really concerned about a massive ice storm. I also feel like we're going to see a colder surface reflection with the damming and heavy precip. What do u think for greenville/greer areaSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said: I know that the NAM in the past has been relatively good with thermal profiles, but would you guys agree that the NAM has somewhat of a cold bias? It's usually colder than the global models during cold air damming, and warmer than the global models with its handling of warm nosing moving in from the south - which tends to be correct. It's higher resolution, so it should handle those situations better....but it has to get the big picture right first, and it may struggle to get that right out at its outer range of 72-84 hour. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Ratios for the win! Lol... ratios are gonna be fairly low with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 With all the model outcomes you have to like this look for a major SE winter storm (..with temps in the 30s and dew points in the teens). 12z NAM hr84: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Lol... ratios are gonna be fairly low with this one. thank god for 2" of QPF, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It's about time for the Canadian model to come in with a southerly adjustment 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: It baffles me that people are already jumping off the cliff and are able to seriously call this storm a bust when we are still 4.days.out. Don't know if it'll bust or not but I stay at the bottom of the cliff. I like it down here. I leave a rope so I can pull myself up 24 hrs out if need be 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Extrapolating the UKMET out past 144, I think it would've ended up looking like some of these other runs of operational models that showed 20"+ totals across a majority of the piedmont. That is providing it stayed cold enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 In my opinion NAM typically does pretty well with thermal profiles. GFS and EURO typically play catch up with CAD setups and trend cooler/colder as the event gets closer. Doesn't always work out that way but usually the NAM does better sniffing out the strength of the CAD before the others do. It has been said before and is a concern for me is the cold source to our northeast will be stale which will probably not lead to a super strong CAD in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I feel relatively confident in Greensboro that there will be enough cold and liquid to make something significant happen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, sarcean said: I feel relatively confident in Greensboro that there will be enough cold and liquid to make something significant happen You should. Most likely a snow-to-sleet-to-snow scenario for us in the western piedmont. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The ICON is coming in really mild for Saturday...no snow to speak of. This with a southerly track, mind you. I'd like to see this model jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, griteater said: It's usually colder than the global models during cold air damming, and warmer than the global models with its handling of warm nosing moving in from the south - which tends to be correct. It's higher resolution, so it should handle those situations better....but it has to get the big picture right first, and it may struggle to get that right out at its outer range of 72-84 hour. Thanks for the reply Griteater. So I guess that is why they say you should wait until within 48 hours until you really start trusting the NAM and not long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: The ICON is coming in really mild for Saturday...no snow to speak of. This with a southerly track, mind you. I'd like to see this model jump on board. Sure is. 540 line is more south (in S. VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I expect to see a shift in track over the next 24 hours, usually there is at this range. My guess is it will stay reasonably far south to start, but hug more inland, like the FV3. I'm anticipating a sleetfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, pbrown85 said: So I have seen people talk about the NAM at this range not being accurate, then some people saying that it does a great job with the temp profiles in these situations? Is the NAM to be believed with it showing the cold getting down to upstate SC or are people just hugging the NAM because it shows the temps we need? Surface wise I would not trust it with low pressure setup, etc.. that far out , however the Nam is able to see low level processes that relate directly to topography and ageostrophic events, I.e. CAD, damming of cold air and effective funneling processes that occur. I have seen it many times be correct in events such as these. NAM is probably the biggest tool you could use for CAD events in my opinion. Even when I lived in the northeast, the NAM would be more or less way ahead of the curve when it came to ice storm setups because of the tools it has built into it. So no it is not a farce in my opinion when it shows dewpoints the way it does right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Yes. What the upstate and NEGA needs is for those upper teens in WNC to bleed our way. With dps in the mid to upper 20s our wetbulbs would likely be above freezing, so we'd get just cold rain or a melting slop that never accumulates. That's still well before the event. Plenty of time for it to bleed in. Someone posted a wet bulb output earlier and the wet bulb was below freezing even Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 ICON finally brings down some snow over the Piedmont Sunday morning. It also never really gets the precip into VA (Through the daylight hours Sunday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: ICON finally brings down some snow over the Piedmont Sunday morning. It also never really gets the precip into VA. yep, much better: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Looks like the timing was off with the Icon. Strong high pressure. Slow moving east though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: thank god for 2" of QPF, right? Yes. Some places are probably gonna be getting a lot of sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said: Thanks for the reply Griteater. So I guess that is why they say you should wait until within 48 hours until you really start trusting the NAM and not long range? Sure. We bang on the NAM a lot, but even at its outer ranges I swear it does as good as any of the other models...it handles southern stream waves well too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: Some people use logic and their eyes. The models have warmed, and you have been warned. Let me add my warning. As we get closer to the event, posts like this will find you on the naughty list. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: yep, much better: I'll take that look. The track is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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