griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 EPS Mean Snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, griteater said: EPS Mean Snow Eww it snow holed me dammit..picking up on a warm nose apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Hell I go back to Charlotte tomorrow for work then back home saturday..may have to stay the weekend in Charlotte to see snow. I expect some different solutions once this wave gets sampled. Crazy what a great track it consistently is showing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: EPS Mean Snow Unreal that the EPS mean is 10 inches for parts of central NC more than a few days out from the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The trend in temps on the Euro is worrying... our cold air is moving out before the storm hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Well with 42 out of 51 members on EPS at least giving me around a couple inches and like 16 of those showing bigger hits of 6 plus I’m definitely excited to keep tracking this one. Backing well away from the cliff I was at during some earlier runs lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, ajr said: The trend in temps on the Euro is worrying... our cold air is moving out before the storm hits ajr - temperatures are no doubt in question for most areas...but on your loop, it's not an apples to apples comparison because the storm has slowed (i.e. the first model run on Nov 30 in your loop has the sfc low east of Maine at 00z on Mon, while the last model run in your loop on Dec 4 has the sfc low off the SC coast...so, if you go back and look at hr216 from the Nov30 run when the storm is approaching, you can see that the temps are even worse than tonight's run (because the storm on that old run is tracking farther north compared to tonight's run)...hope that makes sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Well with 42 out of 51 members on EPS at least giving me around a couple inches and like 16 of those showing bigger hits of 6 plus I’m definitely excited to keep tracking this one. Backing well away from the cliff I was at during some earlier runs lol Where'd you see that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, shahroz98 said: Where'd you see that ? On Weatherbell. It’s a paid site. But just speaking on the rest of N GA I’m lucky to be living where I am I suppose. Outside of the extreme NE mountains snowy members is probably more in the range of 10-15 out of 51 depending on exact location. But I guess it’s pretty much to be expected when climatology greatly favors the mountains in N GA when it comes to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The euro is an entire day slower than the GFS/FV3. That's a pretty striking difference in the model suites and guessing that's why the EURO is warmer, even though it improved a tick this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 NWS GSP.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...As of 340 AM Tuesday: Confidence continues to grow that asignificant winter storm will impact portions of the forecast areabeginning sometime Saturday and continuing in earnest Sunday andpossibly evening Monday. However, the details this far out are stillsketchy at best as any small changes in the track or strength of thestorm system or parent sfc high pressure to the north could make thedifferent be mostly a cold rain or significant ice/snow. Thegreatest confidence in significant ice/snow accumulations continuesto be across the mountains and east facing foothills where WPCcontinues to advertise a 50-70 percent chance of winter stormwarning level ice/snow accumulations. The latest forecast blends theEC and GFS, leaning towards the slower EC in line with neighboringoffices and WPC. Now for the forecast details as they stand now.Zonal flow will continue into the extended time frame Friday withsurface high pressure continue to exert its influence across theregion into Saturday. The net result will be fair skies withreinforcing cool and dry air Friday night as air damming or a wedgesets up east of the mountains Friday night, which will likelypersist through the weekend. This will set the stage for thepotentially significant winter storm as wet bulb temperatures fallinto the mid 20s to mid 30s across the FA Saturday. An amplifiedupper trough will push through the southern Plains states into theDeep South Friday into Saturday with an attendant sfc low pressuresystem riding the Gulf of Mexico coastline before moving off theSoutheast coastline Sunday. The CAD and increasing clouds and precipSaturday into Sunday will lock in cold temps with lows only in the20s to 30s and highs only in the 30s to low 40s this weekend. Thisscenario looks to favor mostly wintry precipitation and possiblymostly snow across the mountains with a mix bag of precipitationacross the NC Piedmont with some combination of rain or mixedprecipitation further south into the Upstate of SC and northeast GA.While its too early to get into precipitation type details, wouldn`tbe surprised to see more wintry look to precip across the regionnear onset and towards the end with more rain or ice in between whenthe storm is closest and pushes warmer air at mid levels (aka warmnose) into the region. The heaviest precip currently looks to takeplace Saturday night into Sunday. In addition to the wintry thisweekend, model guidance shows some potential for significant snow onthe backside of the storm late Sunday into Monday. Now is the timeto put your winter weather plan together to be prepared for this andfuture potential winter storms.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 ICON improved again at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 For what it's worth, the 6z NAM is much colder then the 0z/6z GFS (at hour 84) with the push of surface dew points. CAD being under-modeled? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: For what it's worth, the 6z NAM is much colder then the 0z/6z GFS (at hour 84) with the push of surface dew points. CAD being under-modeled? That’s good to hear - in the past few years the NAM has handled temps better than globals (Jan 2017 comes to mind) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 06Z GFS significantly further South compaired to 00Z at hour 96. Edit: Ends up about the same place though at hour 120. By hour 150 the low ends up further North over the NC sounds just West of Hatteras. compaired to off the coast East of the NC/SC border a lot more rain then snow for a lot of people. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 CAD Ice Storm @ 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I think the models are beginning to sniff the colder CAD air mass. Within the last two model cycles (0Z AND 6z), the EC, GFS, and ICON have all turned colder compared to previous runs. So far, the FV 3 has been leading the way. With that said, don't be surprised if the snow ends up being largely confined to the northern Piedmont/Foothills/Mountains. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Here's the Kuchera map for the 6Z GFS. Again, widespread 16"-20"+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Poimen said: I think the models are beginning to sniff the colder CAD air mass. Within the last two model cycles (0Z AND 6z), the EC, GFS, and ICON have all turned colder compared to previous runs. So far, the FV 3 has been leading the way. With that said, don't be surprised if the snow ends up being largely confined to the northern Piedmont/Foothills/Mountains. Are you speaking about the strength of the high pressure or the surface temperatures? I’ve noticed the high trending stronger on the gfs. It’s not in perfect position to funnel the cold in, but we usually see the surface temperatures trend down in the days leading up to CAD events. I’d love to hear Lookout’s thoughts too. He knows his CAD! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Are you speaking about the strength of the high pressure or the surface temperatures? I’ve noticed the high trending stronger on the gfs. It’s not in perfect position to funnel the cold in, but we usually see the surface temperatures trend down in the days leading up to CAD events. I’d love to hear Lookout’s thoughts too. He knows his CAD! Perhaps both, but in general I think they're picking up on colder surface temps. The GFS soundings for our area looked considerably colder this run than previous runs through the entire column. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Slightly weaker southern wave, slightly colder through hr 66 on the 6z FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Slightly faster but weaker low.. slightly colder at the 850 level through hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, ajr said: Slightly faster but weaker low.. slightly colder at the 850 level through hr 90 850mb moving in faster for the upstate S.C. area. Let’s see if it can hold on and continue to push southward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FV3 ends up climbing the coast and smacking the MA. It looks like a front-end snow for the CAD/favored climo areas of NC, transitioning to freezing rain/sleet, then perhaps rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Uh oh. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Poimen said: FV3 ends up climbing the coast and smacking the MA. It looks like a front-end snow for the CAD/favored climo areas of NC, transitioning to freezing rain/sleet, then perhaps rain. Oh goodie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Latest model trends don't look good for Wake, especially southern Wake. I'm just not seeing the cold air supply that we need. Borderline = rain. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Still a good thump for many here, per the FV 3. However, those amounts SE of the I 85 corridor are suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It's ok, it's just the crazy 6z... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVA_SN Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The 6z gfs ensemble snowfall mean is slightly further south than the 00z was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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