griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Wave closes off with small contour over TN at 144 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Clown map has snow jackpot in full western half of NC save the far SW....and across the central and eastern upstate...big totals 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Big big QPF slow mover and colder temps this run as grit said. Starts snowing at 126 and still going at 144 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 - 2.5 liquid from Asheville to Charlotte area...as much or more in upstate 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: Clown map has snow jackpot in full western half of NC save the far SW....and across the central and eastern upstate...big totals Damn it. Somebody may have to throw me a rope down here. On second thought I better wait down here for a few more runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 So in a general sense we have old gfs FV3 and now euro hammering areas of NC with massive snowstorm essentially. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 - 2.5 liquid from Asheville to Charlotte area...as much or more in upstateHow much qpf up this way Grit?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: 2 - 2.5 liquid from Asheville to Charlotte area...as much or more in upstate That’s a lot of cold rain for GSP!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: How much qpf up this way Grit? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk .27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 If this southern wave stays disconnected from the northern stream, maintains its strength / amplitude, and treks west to east at a slow pace like this, it's going to be a very impressive storm for wherever it is cold enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 .27 Sweet high ratios ftw Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: How much qpf up this way Grit? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Close to 2 inches up there too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Close to 2 inches up there tooThank you Sir!Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 So whats the northern extent of the preicp this run. NC/VA border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: The clown maps are always a little different 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: . Another shift north... Come on EURO drop back down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 If this southern wave stays disconnected from the northern stream, maintains its strength / amplitude, and treks west to east at a slow pace like this, it's going to be a very impressive storm for wherever it is cold enoughYou’re much more knowledgeable than me, is there any storms similar to this at 500mb in the past? 2/04? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Congrats everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 That poor county by the mountains in NC got completely whiffed in a snowhole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Stepping back from the cliff.... for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Another shift north... Come on EURO drop back down Actually came south. Better run than the 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah , the bottom map gives me 12-18”! Good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: You’re much more knowledgeable than me, is there any storms similar to this at 500mb in the past? 2/04? I don't know about that, but appreciate it...things may very well change drastically between now and Saturday, but in terms of tonight's GFS and Euro with the slow closing off wave as it tracked from southern Cali to NC, the 2 big hit examples from the past that come to mind are the 02/04 storm that you mentioned and 02/69 (those were a little colder out front though I'm sure) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 157 AM WPC Discussion Confidence with respect to the southern stream system is relatively good through Sat night as the surface low moves across the Gulf Coast states and model/ensemble solutions are relatively well-clustered. Forecast confidence declines after 12Z Sun as to whether the low pressure system takes a more easterly trek out to sea or northeasterly close to the coast, or perhaps even slows/stalls for a period of time. The eventual outcome seems to hinge largely on interaction with a relatively small-scale northern stream shortwave currently well out over the data sparse North Pacific, evident on water vapor satellite imagery near 31N/175W. This feature will deamplify as it rounds the apex of the western Canada ridge before amplifying once again as it enters cyclonic flow across central Canada Fri-Sat. Some consensus has emerged as to the eventual track of the Southeast U.S. low pressure system after Sun, with some degree of ensemble clustering around a low perhaps 50-75 miles east of the Outer Banks by Mon morning. This should be taken somewhat with a grain of salt, however, given the current location of the critical feature and the complex degree of interaction that will occur with the southern stream system. As the system shifts eastward Sat into Sun, precipitation will also focus across areas of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and perhaps portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Models have shown a persistent signal for a potentially significant winter weather event for portions of the southern Appalachians late Sat into Sun. Depending on the eventual track and intensity of the low pressure system, accumulating snows may also be possible east of the Appalachians from the Carolinas north into the southern Mid-Atlantic states, although confidence in this aspect of the forecast remains relatively low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah , the bottom map gives me 12-18”! Good run 12-18 that's all? We toss and get our 30 inches back at 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: That poor county by the mountains in NC got completely whiffed in a snowhole Cherokee County always gets screwed on these CAD events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 00z EPS Mean jogged south this run...matches the idea of the Op run. Should be improved members in there for NC into parts of the upstate. It was a little better with the confluence over the NE and the wave came thru the SW states at a slightly lower latitude 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The wave is a slow crawler thru the SE on the EPS....impressive to see on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 00z EPS Mean jogged south this run...matches the idea of the Op run. Should be improved members in there for NC into parts of the upstate. It was a little better with the confluence over the NE and the wave came thru the SW states at a slightly lower latitude I'm still holding on to hope here in Oconee. Eps hasnt waivered much from an I85 special. Preciate your analysis and pbpk Grit! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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