griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 For this type of storm with a subtropical jet wave and trough over the NE States out ahead, this is right up there with the best looks that you will ever see at 500mb for west-central NC into the upstate 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Suncat said: If I'm reading this correctly, it appears that everything from Raleigh east is out of the game. Just cold rain. I mean as depicted, if you're S&E of say Durham, it would be a tough run. Wxbell maps still show Chapel Hill at 4" this run and up over half a foot north of 85 in Durham County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: That map matches up well with climo..... tight gradient through the Charlotte area. Seen it many, many times over my 53 years. (I-85 cut-off) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: That map matches up well with climo..... tight gradient through the Charlotte area. Seen it many, many times over my 53 years. (I-85 cut-off) Looks about right given the track as far as the r/s line is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I’ll take my 3-5” of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I'm not sure of the accuracy of the norwegian or aussie models on weather.us but they give me all snow so I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Paging Lookout!! Would love to hear his thoughts on Upstate SC and NGA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 UKMet at hr144 at the end of its run - it's a little more positive tilt with the SW wave compared to the GFS, but a little less suppressive with the flow over the NE, so it's maybe similar in the end, though the wave may not close off on the UKMet run like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I’ll take my 3-5” of sleet That is a kuchera map so it took out sleet and zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I’ll take my few sleet pellets and extensive rain cold and like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Paging Lookout!! Would love to hear his thoughts on Upstate SC and NGA My own opinion is that the GFS isn't nearly cold enough at the sfc if we get this setup in the end. This is a sick cold air damming setup here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: That is a kuchera map so it took out sleet and zr. Wow! Ok, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, griteater said: My own opinion here is that the GFS isn't nearly cold enough at the sfc if we get this setup in the end. This is a sick cold air damming setup here Based on solely this GFS run, do you see front end snow, even at GSP?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 25 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Southern edge is almost down to Columbia now... Let's see what the FV3 has in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 All I know at this point is a lot of something is going to fall from the sky. It has been wet. Wettest fall on record. It has been raining all weekend here. If the clipper delivers a stout HP overhead like the models are trending toward, we'll be good to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, Wow said: Looks about right given the track as far as the r/s line is concerned. Is this a fri night/Saturday storm or Saturday/Sunday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 S/w entering CA. Similar to Christmas 2010? Was just going back looking at some old threads. Forgot how much hell yall gave cold rain for starting an early thread. Vintage nugget 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Based on solely this GFS run, do you see front end snow, even at GSP?? It has some snow or snow/sleet mix to start there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 How does Metro Atlanta look in all of this ? Are we sitting out for this one ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, shahroz98 said: How does Metro Atlanta look in all of this ? Are we sitting out for this one ? The wedge appears to me to build in way too late for them. I could be wrong but simply looking at timing it seems they’d precipitate for too long prior to the wedging so it would be 35-38 and rain. It’s still very far out though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 Omg that FV3 clown map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 17 minutes ago, griteater said: My own opinion is that the GFS isn't nearly cold enough at the sfc if we get this setup in the end. This is a sick cold air damming setup here Agree.. looking at sounding at hr 180 verbatim when the low is approaching KILM, you can see the warm nose clearly.. then looking at the winds at the 850mb level, you can see the SE flow we don't want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The GFS LP is not in the best of places (MB, SC) for the Triangle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The MA subforum has to be interesting right now to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 12z GEFS Mean matches ideas of the Op run....snow totals went up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 That could be us in 3 days don't gloat. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: That could be us in 3 days don't gloat. Exactly! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 59 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I'm not sure of the accuracy of the norwegian or aussie models on weather.us but they give me all snow so I like it. Of course the Norwegian would give all snow. What else would it give? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The crazy thing, is how cold the FV3 GFS is already at the surface. It won't take a perfect track. A less than ideal track would make for a lot more sleet than modeled I imagine, because there are so often sneaky warm layers with transfers. Even if things trend pretty far north, we should get something on the front end, which is a big bonus. You know you're in a good spot when you're equally worried about suppression as you are it coming to far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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