beanskip Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Big issue with temps on Euro run -- 850 Oc line barely making it into NW part of N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: Temps are terrible.. 850s dont support snow except for mostly mountains of NW NC and SW VA. At 144 850s are below 0 in immediate CAD areas. At least on the maps I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 At 156, it's heavy snow NW of a line from Hickory to Winston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I'm more interested in the euro ensembles than deterministic, this far out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Temps are terrible.. 850s dont support snow except for mostly mountains of NW NC and SW VA.I was afraid this would end up being our main concern!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, ajr said: Might be premature, but just ordered a sled for my son Got one for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, jjwxman said: In RAH’s video update put out around 12:30pm on YouTube they told folks not to change their weekend plans, just keep aware of latest forecasts. I, for the first time ever, is hoping for no snow for NC. Why you ask? My wife and I are heading to Asheville Sunday for the Biltmore Candlelight Christmas. I have non-refundable hotel rooms as well as the tickets. I hate driving in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: At 144 850s are below 0 in immediate CAD areas. At least on the maps I see. CAD areas for the W piedmont & foothills are within a degree of 0 at most. It's minor details at this point. Overall setup is holding. CAD high in place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Not terrible, but not the cold run we wanted. Also the low is a bit more north than we'd like. I don't know. UK and Euro on the warmer side doesn't make me overly optimistic today. On to tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The mountains would get raked with heavy wet snow if Euro is right. Nice orographic uplift from SE flow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: CAD areas for the W piedmont & foothills are within a degree of 0 at most. It's minor details at this point. Overall setup is holding. CAD high in place. 850’s or surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 We want to see strengthening high pressure as we move in. Not the typical weakening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Big big totals in parts of SW VA again (20-30 inches) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wow said: CAD areas for the W piedmont & foothills are within a degree of 0 at most. It's minor details at this point. Overall setup is holding. CAD high in place. Yeah. Too early to be worried about a degree or two. We are usually sweating that 6 hours before onset. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan80963 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Doesn't the euro normally fall out about this time anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Wow said: CAD areas for the W piedmont & foothills are within a degree of 0 at most. It's minor details at this point. Overall setup is holding. CAD high in place. Yeah, it sure is in a nice spot, right up there over PA/NY border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Temps are terrible.. 850s dont support snow except for mostly mountains of NW NC and SW VA. I agree. Areas in the Mountains like Boone are going to get pounded. Foothills and points eastward not so much. Still too early in the season for big winter storms for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Nothing more than a nuisance event outside of the immediate foothills this run, just taken at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I think one thing to keep in mind is the timing of this. It needs to speed up a little to better coincide with the cold air/HP. If it keeps trending slower it could be just rain for about everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The mountains would get raked with heavy wet snow if Euro is right. Nice orographic uplift from SE flow too Oh yes. You going to make the road trip back here for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ethan80963 said: Doesn't the euro normally fall out about this time anyway? They almost never come back once they go warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Oh yes. You going to make the road trip back here for this one? Doubt it, my wife graduates Saturday from her Masters program so I will be here in SoVa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Remember that ensembles are much more reliable at this point....wait until euro ensembles before getting down in the dumps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, jjwxman said: 12z GEFS snowfall mean. Looks like a pretty big increase in the mean for some places unless I’m mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, yotaman said: I agree. Areas in the Mountains like Boone are going to get pounded. Foothills and points eastward not so much. Still too early in the season for big winter storms for us. While you may be right, it's also way too early to make bold statements like that. It was only last year that the Atlanta burbs got over a foot, around the same time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 To accept the 12z Euro 850 temp profiles verbatim is to accept that there are sub 0c 850 temps in Orlando but not in RDU or GSO at 192 hours. More likely, the model does not yet have a handle on fine details at this range. Better, as Wow suggested, to look at the big pieces on the board. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ryan1234 said: While you may be right, it's also way too early to make bold statements like that. It was only last year that the Atlanta burbs got over a foot, around the same time. Less than a 50% chance of less than one inch woke up too 9 inches it takes alot to go right but the overall setup is definitely there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, yotaman said: I, for the first time ever, is hoping for no snow for NC. Why you ask? My wife and I are heading to Asheville Sunday for the Biltmore Candlelight Christmas. I have non-refundable hotel rooms as well as the tickets. I hate driving in snow. Hamilton is in Greenville beginning tomorrow night. I am sure the Peace Center and the folks holding those precious tickets are hoping for no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Ehhh... I don't really know if this issue is ever going to go away. The surface highs are nice, but the air mass we're inheriting is a rotting, modifying arctic air mass from earlier in the week. This air mass is going to be a pool of -3 to +3 C temps at 850, and I don't really know a mechanism that's going to change that. As of now, models have for the most part graced us with adequate temperatures, but this is a situation that might be somewhat more sensitive to mishandling of mid level temps than others. The entrenched cold air is never the thing that "wowed" us with this system, so far it's the qpf. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: They almost never come back once they go warm. When the models have warmed, you have been warned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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