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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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HRRR removes heat fast this evening. It takes 2m temp in the triad to 32 around 5pm - down to 24 at 7 pm. It bottoms out in the mid teens in NC Piedmont where there’s a nice snowpack. This seems a bit overdone based on forecasts.

Hi res NAM is much warmer and slower to radiate. Doesn’t drop to freezing until midnight, bottoming out in the mid 20s in northern NC, tapering to 32 towards SC line. This seems warm even if the clouds are stubborn.

RGEM is somewhere in between the two and seems most reasonable. Drops to 32 between 6-7pm, bottoming out pretty close to everyones official forecast low.

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This may have already been posted, but quite an amazing job on the FV3 from 8 days out (at least for the deep south and southern apps portion of the map). This was the first forecast map that was posted in this thread back on 12/2. The 12Z GFS wasn't too far off either for its initial depiction for Sunday. The 12Z GFS snowfall map from that same day shows that the models were already zeroing in on on far NE Georgia, the upstate of SC, and central and western NC as the bullseye for winter weather. Those areas remained remarkably consistent as ground zero throughout the evolution of the storm. We'll see if the models show the same consistency when the next threat materializes, but it's encouraging to see the south's first winter storm of the season handled well by most of the major models. I'll leave it to the professional mets and seasoned amateurs to grade the overall performance of each model, but the "new" GFS appears to have received more than a passing grade (is a B+ too high?).

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gfs_snow_Ku_acc_charlotte_32.thumb.png.45a03097942fab903faa8bd2680563b7.png

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