December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[Snow dog]

45 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Although there is some question about depth of the moisture, Models stubbornly warm the lowest levels over north ga/upstate overnight which is why some  of that is shown as rain. despite northeasterly flow, which is a bit baffling to be honest.  That said, some of the recent runs are a touch colder. Nam especially seems bizarre, showing temps rising into the upper 30s and even near 40 over the northwest upstate. There could be some weak downslope over far ne ga/nw upstate late but otherwise flow is remains NNE to NE throughout the low levels and if this happens it will surely be a first. I can't recall a single time where the temp starts above freezing already and rises several more degrees during the night with NE winds/flow so i'm curious how this shakes out. HRRR is much colder, especially in the upstate, showing temps staying right where they are now which seems like a no brainer. Models were pretty damn close with temps in the end here...got only to 32.7 here, which is a degree warmer than i thought it would get.  So I can't totally discount it.  Hopefully Places that were screwed and missed out will get a little something out of it. 

I would expect i would see  some here too but the hrrr is dangerously close to showing most of the precip missing here. naturally. 

 

 

 

 

Really hard for me to believe this map-snowing in the midlands while I get rain??

[BullCityWx]

3 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Really hard for me to believe this map-snowing in the midlands while I get rain??

I could see that just being where the best lift and precip is located, kinda like the November snow in Lexington County in 2015. 

[CaryWx]

Is that the 850 coming over northern Ala?

[Lookout]

20 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Really hard for me to believe this map-snowing in the midlands while I get rain??

It looks like it.   Across the board the models are colder from 925mb to the surface there. Essentially the models push the cold pool with the wedge to the south. Here is the nam's 925mb showing just that. Also here is the nam's 2 meter temps and as you can see, it has really warm temps over the ne corner/nw upstate. GFS is a few degrees colder and the hrrr is showing temps in the 32 to 34 range.  

although the gfs/hrrr are colder at the surface, they all show warming above it similar to below. That said, If precip develops and it's sort of widespread, i wonder if that would make it a bit colder than they are showing. the 18z nam was wetter than the 12z and it was a bit colder as a result at 925mb at least. A bit unusual but they have consistently showed this. 

 

 

 

[downeastnc]

I will take the 18Z NAM 3k.....obviously overdone as it has a heavy "band" of snow just sitting over central eastern NC..... but I need it to be right.....

[Brick Tamland]

I could see getting a couple more inches tomorrow for an encore.

 

[SouthCentralWakeCo]

Would be awesome to end this event with some snow. Just watched the NWS briefing issued at 4:30 pm and he said that the models over the past 24 hours have trended toward more wintry precipitation throughout the day tomorrow. He said we need to watch it closely and to "not let your guard down." 

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

Would be awesome to end this event with some snow. Just watched the NWS briefing issued at 4:30 pm and he said that the models over the past 24 hours have trended toward more wintry precipitation throughout the day tomorrow. He said we need to watch it closely and to "not let your guard down." 

Sounds like a repeat of today with the models getting better as we got closer.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

The 7” of snow @RDUAirport ties for the 3rd most snow in a December day on record! It also guarantees RDU will at least have normal average snowfall this season. #NCsnowchat #ABC11 

[cmh90]

10 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I will take the 18Z NAM 3k.....obviously overdone as it has a heavy "band" of snow just sitting over central eastern NC..... but I need it to be right.....

I’ll eat my own shoe if that happens!

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, cmh90 said:

I’ll eat my own shoe if that happens!

Might want to get some ketchup.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Might want to get some ketchup.

A-1 sauce goes better with shoe

[BullCityWx]

With us just beginning winter, I wonder how many piedmont locations have had multiple snows of 6"+ in a winter. 

[snowinnc]

While I love the look of the NAM I just don’t see it happening.  I’m not going to be greedy.  I’m more than happy with what we got today so I hope the people that got blanked today get it.  Everyone needs to get in on the early holiday fun!

[oconeexman]

1 hour ago, Lookout said:

Although there is some question about depth of the moisture, Models stubbornly warm the lowest levels over north ga/upstate overnight which is why some  of that is shown as rain. despite northeasterly flow, which is a bit baffling to be honest.  That said, some of the recent runs are a touch colder. Nam especially seems bizarre, showing temps rising into the upper 30s and even near 40 over the northwest upstate. There could be some weak downslope over far ne ga/nw upstate late but otherwise flow is remains NNE to NE throughout the low levels and if this happens it will surely be a first. I can't recall a single time where the temp starts above freezing already and rises several more degrees during the night with NE winds/flow so i'm curious how this shakes out. HRRR is much colder, especially in the upstate, showing temps staying right where they are now which seems like a no brainer. Models were pretty damn close with temps in the end here...got only to 32.7 here, which is a degree warmer than i thought it would get.  So I can't totally discount it.  Hopefully Places that were screwed and missed out will get a little something out of it. 

I would expect i would see  some here too but the hrrr is dangerously close to showing most of the precip missing here. naturally. 

 

 

 

 

Well I have slowly risen to 40 now..depressing

[SENC]

@Orangeburgwx We just may get a second chance. (I saw a few  big wet sloppy flakes about 5:30 am this morning, so theres that)…

Local AFD here. Concerning the ULL.. 

However
later tonight a deformation zone and or east to west 850-700mb
frontogenesis band develops within the complex mid level
pattern. This area will take up residence just along our
northern zones or close proximity to. Although deep moisture
will be limited, the dynamics of this feature will allow showers
and or areas of rain to develop moreso during the day Monday. I
don't expect anything heavy or any wintry precipitation, but
the extended duration of light rain and or showers could add up
to quarter to half an inch or so. Don't expect too much movement
in temperatures with the main storyline being much cooler
Monday as cold air advection behind departing surface low
pressure warrants. (lets hope things trend COLDER!)..

 

The moisture profile is saturated through 15,000 feet and the
dendritic snow growth is at the top of this moisture. Rain with a
mix light snow are possible through the overnight hours Monday night
but no accumulation is expected.

[Lookout]

24 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Well I have slowly risen to 40 now..depressing

Yeah that sucks. How do you normally do when wedges break down? Do you warm up faster or slower than gsp/anderson? 

Temp here has actually dropped back to 34 after getting to 35. Still have a 10mph or so ne wind with heavy mist/drizzle. Hard to see me  rising 4 or 5 degrees overnight. 

[GreensboroWx]

33 minutes ago, cmh90 said:

I’ll eat my own shoe if that happens!

Often, upper lows, which are cold aloft in nature, over perform and are not well handled by the models. See Lubbock, Tx..... I wouldn't discount the NAM 3K.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

RECORD SNOW | Third Snowiest 'One Day' In Greensboro History https://t.co/HNQVnezVnH https://t.co/bInPZt3U2c

[Jet Stream Rider]

35 minutes ago, cmh90 said:

I’ll eat my own shoe if that happens!

Are you familiar with film maker Werner Herzog?

[oconeexman]

I've actually seen it go both ways..sometimes itll lock in here and we will be 5-7 colder than GSP when it retreats. Then theres days like today when I'm at 40 and gsp is at 33. I guess it's where the high sets up shop. Those that are more Hudson babyish or more northern seem to be better for new sc. More east based toward Va seem to help gsp more..I guess. 

I got to see about 6 hrs of awesome snow but surface temps never got below freezing last night. Then around 0230 the warmth took over and it was a sleet fest.

[oconeexman]

8 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Yeah that sucks. How do you normally do when wedges break down? Do you warm up faster or slower than gsp/anderson? 

Temp here has actually dropped back to 33 after getting to 35. Still have a 10mph or so ne wind with heavy mist/drizzle. Hard to see us rising 4 or 5 degrees overnight. 

See post above Lookout..its beyond frustrating..I dont understand it. I think the biggest thing for me is track of the low when temps are marginal. Or if the wedge has already established itself.

[PackGrad05]

I would really love to see this happen tomorrow.  We only got a couple inches of slush in southern Wake and most of it was over before sunrise.  

Models are looking good.  Upper level lows bring their own cold, so we have that going for us, too.

[Lookout]

12 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

I've actually seen it go both ways..sometimes itll lock in here and we will be 5-7 colder than GSP when it retreats. Then theres days like today when I'm at 40 and gsp is at 33. I guess it's where the high sets up shop. Those that are more Hudson babyish or more northern seem to be better for new sc. More east based toward Va seem to help gsp more..I guess. 

I got to see about 6 hrs of awesome snow but surface temps never got below freezing last night. Then around 0230 the warmth took over and it was a sleet fest.

Fascinating.  Never ceases to amaze me how the topography effects things around there/here. Sure makes it difficult to get a grasp on what to expect. I've often thought how nice it must be to be in the ohio valley or plains where it's a lot more straight forward. 

7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I would really love to see this happen tomorrow.  We only got a couple inches of slush in southern Wake and most of it was over before sunrise.  

Models are looking good.  Upper level lows bring their own cold, so we have that going for us, too.

new hrrr is looking really promising, especially for south carollna where they got nothing. a bit colder and  dropping a couple of tenths liquid With temps at 32/33. 

[UpstateSCGamecock]

Well I have slowly risen to 40 now..depressing

 

While it’s still 33 in Clinton. We did get 1/2 of sleet from the storm.

 

 

.

[ncforecaster89]

19 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Great decision, there's nothing more special! Forget about snow, that can happen anytime. Congratulations man!

Thanks... greatly appreciate the kind words!  And, your own appreciation for the gift of a child.  Eagerly look forward to each opportunity to see our baby girl, inside the womb, via ultrasound.  

Given the developing El Nino, the probability of another significant winter storm in the SE, this winter, is certainly elevated.  Will always choose my family over a prospective major weather event.  That said, and as you articulated, there will be many more opportunities; especially since I'm willing to document them as far north as Maine.   

Would share local storm effects from here in Wilmington, but SENC has got that covered, and the highlights consist of a very cold, wind-driven rain.   

[superjames1992]

2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

With us just beginning winter, I wonder how many piedmont locations have had multiple snows of 6"+ in a winter. 

Looks like some areas in the foothills (edit: I meant Sandhills, oops) accomplished this in 2010-2011 (Boxing Day storm and the January 2011 storm).  Also, some areas of the NW Piedmont did so in 2009-2010 (12/29 storm and the 1/30 storm).  I suspect several locations accomplished this feat during the winter of 1986-1987.

[superjames1992]

1 hour ago, GreensboroWx said:

Often, upper lows, which are cold aloft in nature, over perform and are not well handled by the models. See Lubbock, Tx..... I wouldn't discount the NAM 3K.

Remember that ridiculous upper level low in February 2014 that gave the foothills and SW VA a surprise 8”-12”+ of snow (on top of the big snow they had already had)?  It wasn’t quite as prolific in Greensboro, but we got a bonus inch from that, too (to bring our storm total to about 8”).

[Eric]

1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

With us just beginning winter, I wonder how many piedmont locations have had multiple snows of 6"+ in a winter. 

Check out Eric Webb's NC winter storm maps archive for 1935/1936.  An incredible amount of snow fell across the entire state that winter.  Monroe received 27" of snow.

https://www.webberweather.com/1930s-winter-storms.html

[SENC]

17 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Thanks... greatly appreciate the kind words!  And, your own appreciation for the gift of a child.  Eagerly look forward to each opportunity to see our baby girl, inside the womb, via ultrasound.  

Given the developing El Nino, the probability of another significant winter storm in the SE, this winter, is certainly elevated.  Will always choose my family over a prospective major weather event.  That said, and as you articulated, there will be many more opportunities; especially since I'm willing to document them as far north as Maine.   

Would share local storm effects from here in Wilmington, but SENC has got that covered, and the highlights consist of a very cold, wind-driven rain.   

Thank you for the Kind words.. Wish I could report something other than wind driven Cold Rain though, it is, what it is living around ILM.. that's life..

I feel "Our" probabilities here in SENC & SC are Certainly, "elevated" to get a Wintery event over the course of this Winter..

Hope your "pregnancy" goes well for you & your Sig other on a healthy Girl..