CaryWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Looks like the latest NAM is not affecting forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Looks like the latest NAM is not affecting forecasts. HRRR looks good for our area. 2z is out to be 12 and there's plus 6" totals through the Triangle. And it's still snowing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kelani Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 17 minutes ago, bess said: Sitting in lenoir.. cold but no snow so far :/ I drove to Hickory, Morganton, and Blowing Rock and saw decent snowfall. Friends in Wilkesboro and Taylorsville are also reporting flakes. And then I look at our radar, and what always happens here is happening once again. Nobody's seen precip of any kind. I really wish someone could explain the physics of why this always happens in this tiny pocket of Caldwell county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, FallsLake said: HRRR looks good for our area. 2z is out to be 12 and there's plus 6" totals through the Triangle. And it's still snowing. I would love the HRRR to be right, but is there any reason to trust it over the NAM? I have heard it mentioned over and over that the NAM is killer with dealing with the warm nose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I would love the HRRR to be right, but is there any reason to trust it over the NAM? I have heard it mentioned over and over that the NAM is killer with dealing with the warm nose. Due to it's history yes the NAM has been great sniffing out the warm nose. But that doesn't mean it isn't prone to mistakes. The HRRR has a good record too in this time frame. could go either way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Great news from NWS GSP for the NW piedmont: Quote Meanwhile...the northern extent of the light precip can`t seem to make it into the nrn foothills and nw Piedmont, which is only allowing temps up in that region to cool off this evening, which means lower wet bulb temps, which means even more certainty that precip will either start as snow or quickly change to snow in the I-40 corridor east of the mtns later tonite. We await more guidance before applying any mid-course corrections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 For those who might be interested, here's the link to a list of the current record snowfall event for each individual county in NC: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snowfall-extremes/NC/3 For instance, Lenoir holds the record for Caldwell county at 17". Morganton is the record holder for Burke county with 19.3". On a personal note, I opted not to chase this event as it would cause me to miss an ultrasound appointment for my wife who's 21.5 weeks pregnant. Lastly, I'm wishing everyone luck and hope all your weenie dreams come to fruition! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 The latest version of the WSW for our area is quite bullish! Quote NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068-069-501>506-508-510-091115- /O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181210T1700Z/ Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Yancey-Mitchell-Catawba-Rowan- Cleveland-Lincoln-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell- Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell- Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring 1004 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow ongoing. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 15 inches expected, with up to 20 inches on the higher ridges between Mount Mitchell and Beech Mountain. * WHERE...The northern mountains of North Carolina, and a portion of the foothills and Piedmont between the Blue Ridge Escarpment and Interstate 77. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to noon Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Heavy snow mesoanalysis from SPC. Bring it! Quote Mesoscale Discussion 1700 < Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 1700 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 PM CST Sat Dec 08 2018 Areas affected...Western North Carolina into extreme southwestern Virginia Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 090332Z - 090900Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will develop across western NC over the next few hours then spread toward extreme southwestern VA. Snow rates may approach 1-2" per hour at times. DISCUSSION...Significant large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading from AL/TN region ahead of a progressive short-wave trough. Leading edge of this forcing appears to be spreading into the southern Appalachians at 0330z with substantial precipitation, roughly 200 mi wide, trailing into central AL. Back edge of this stronger zone of ascent is moving east at roughly 30-35kt which suggests residence time in this heavier precip shield may last at least 6 hours. Wedge of cooler air is banked against the higher terrain across western NC and forecast soundings suggest much of this initial precip will fall as snow. However, forecast soundings exhibit substantial warming at AVL after 10z which correlates well with back edge of aforementioned zone of ascent. A mix of precipitation after 10z could spread across the southern half of western NC. Latest HREF Ensemble guidance supports this scenario with snow rates approaching 1-2" per hour. ..Darrow.. 12/09/2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Updated. Tick lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: On a personal note, I opted not to chase this event as it would cause me to miss an ultrasound appointment for my wife who's 21.5 weeks pregnant. Great decision, there's nothing more special! Forget about snow, that can happen anytime. Congratulations man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Last call from RNK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, wake4est said: Updated. Tick lower. That went UP from 11” to 12” for GSO since this morning’s graphic. I’ll take 8” and call December a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 For Guys I’m the RAH area. “We are sending out new WSW as we speak. The main change was to raise the storm total ice values for southern Davidson, Stanley, Randolph, Montgomery, Anson counties in particular. Values of .25 to .40 will be possible. Impacts will be numerous to potentially widespread power outages” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 23 minutes ago, wake4est said: Updated. Tick lower. Every shift will tweak it a bit. It is wait and see time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, eyewall said: Every shift will tweak it a bit. It is wait and see time. Question is which way will it be tweaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Awfully quiet in here now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, cbmclean said: Awfully quiet in here now. Not much forecasting left to do, and the only short range model to watch (HRRR) has been ticking warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, mjwise said: Not much forecasting left to do, and the only short range model to watch (HRRR) has been ticking warmer. Uh oh, did it cave to the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Uh oh, did it cave to the NAM? Looks it to my untrained eye, but I'm looking more in VA and during the day on Sunday (watching soundings in BUFKIT) - not focusing on overnight in NC. ETA: Latest HRRR definitely not as warm as 3km nam was earlier. I didn't realize how warm that run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Awfully quiet in here now. A lot have more to the obs thread since it’s nowcasting and happening now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Backside hit is back on FV3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, RTPGiants said: Backside hit is back on FV3 Can you post it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I know this isn't ob boars but im in greer amd ita screaming snow,....great job looks lile the fv3 nailed otSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 ICON looks like at least another 2-3” on Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: ICON looks like at least another 2-3” on Monday All of NC, or primarily RDU area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Funny how I posted this three weeks ago and look what happened.... On 11/19/2018 at 2:47 PM, LovingGulfLows said: If Atlanta can get an early December snowstorm that drops 5+ inches, then Charlotte certainly can with the right pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Went to NWS to see if my totals ticked down, they went up for Mooresville! What in the world? Looking at the forecast, there is no changeover to sleet? I'm not following and think this busts pretty bad. 11-18 inches? lol. We'll see, FV3 for the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Warm nose has arrived just after the heaviest of the snow. ZR/IP/SN mix right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthWake33 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Light snow in Cary, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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