wake4est Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 22z hrrr 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I know the storm is just arriving here in NC, but I've been impressed by the global models picking up on this event 7+ days. I'm not sure I've ever seen this. I'm trying to figure out why this storm is so well progged but others not so much. I'm thinking it may have to do to the strength of the waves, but that's just a guess. I'm thinking the locations right along the snow/sleet border is going to hit the jackpot of 16+" total which is insane for this area. Just think, we are only in early Dec and the way it's looking, Jan/Feb are going to be cold with plenty of blocking. I'm really thinking this is going to be a blockbuster winter for much of our region, esp the northern mountains of NC....wax those skis! 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 And the Kuchera map from 22z HRRR from Pivotal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, wake4est said: 22z hrrr Yeah, the HRRR has been consistent showing strong CAD temps. Impressive, if correct, which I have not reason to doubt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, GreensboroWx said: I know the storm is just arriving here in NC, but I've been impressed by the global models picking up on this event 7+ days. I'm not sure I've ever seen this. I'm trying to figure out why this storm is so well progged but others not so much. I'm thinking it may have to do to the strength of the waves, but that's just a guess. I'm thinking the locations right along the snow/sleet border is going to hit the jackpot of 16+" total which is insane for this area. Just think, we are only in early Dec and the way it's looking, Jan/Feb are going to be cold with plenty of blocking. I'm really thinking this is going to be a blockbuster winter for much of our region, esp the northern mountains of NC....wax those skis! Do you think there will be any significant icing? Seems like some of the models are picking up on the potential just SE of the Triad between Charlotte and RDU. I'm in NW Randolph Co just south of Archdale and am hoping to stay snow/sleet and avoid an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, GreensboroWx said: Yeah, the HRRR has been consistent showing strong CAD temps. Impressive, if correct, which I have not reason to doubt Just crazy that is is showing 14" for me. wow. And it is happening currently.... wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The Statesville sn/ip/zr line in full effect on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The 22Z RAP has 2" qpf amounts just south of the Triad and 17" snow totals in the Triad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 HRRR / RAP and Global’s have CLT and RDU in the game. NAM not so much. After studying some upstream results HRRR performed best on my score list. However, Texas (Lubbock) doesn’t deal with CAD. climatology and watching some upper level jets suggest the cad will be eroded in the 850 layer due to a strong jet. My my prediction is Best case for the two metros would be 2-4. Greensboro cash’s out with 6-10. Foothills and mtns upwards of a foot and higher. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Poimen said: The 22Z RAP has 2" qpf amounts just south of the Triad and 17" snow totals in the Triad. That would be significant. However, with the dry air, I see a lot of initial moisture eaten up. My guess is 1.25-1.5 for Guilford county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Man that moisture is literally hitting a wall of dry air and not moving at all in NC. I’d bet in the areas like CLT where that has setup do fairly well in the end since the CAD should keep strengthening. https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: That would be significant. However, with the dry air, I see a lot of initial moisture eaten up. My guess is 1.25-1.5 for Guilford county Models already account for precip not reaching the ground dude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2” per hour rates in the Triad at 9am per the HRRR 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 23 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Do you think there will be any significant icing? Seems like some of the models are picking up on the potential just SE of the Triad between Charlotte and RDU. I'm in NW Randolph Co just south of Archdale and am hoping to stay snow/sleet and avoid an ice storm. Unfortunately, I DO think there is going to be some major icing, later Sunday after the brunt of the snow is over....I'm thinking in a line from CLT to RDU for the most icing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 700mb temps on the HRRR have never been an issue... mostly closer to the 850mb level during the day tomorrow for the I-85/US-74 corridor on east... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Wow im waiting on you and clint eastwood obs. Ready to get started and im behind yall in line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Earlier today my NWS grid forecast was set at 5-9" for Sunday (daytime period). It was reduced to 3-5" after lunch time. Now it's been bumped back up to 3-7". Again, I'm wondering what models they're using to create these output. Anybody know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Wow im waiting on you and clint eastwood obs. Ready to get started and im behind yall in line Yep I follow him closely too.. he always beats me out on rain and snow totals even though he's only a few miles NE of me. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Hope to see the lurkers who post obs only during snowstorms.. like that guy Earnest with the wolf avatar up in Statesville! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Stop the arguing. I'm getting tired of deleting posts and am about to start deleting posters. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Fingers crossed to all of us to stay below the threshold of tree and power line issues with any freezing rain. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 “Seeing pretty considerable sleet in my part of Charlotte, unfortunately expecting a lot more where that came from overall w/ this storm tonight & into tomorrow right up thru RDU even though taking the HRRR, RAP, & other models at face value says otherwise (bad idea).” - Eric Webb Sleetfest for the metro area is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 18 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Earlier today my NWS grid forecast was set at 5-9" for Sunday (daytime period). It was reduced to 3-5" after lunch time. Now it's been bumped back up to 3-7". Again, I'm wondering what models they're using to create these output. Anybody know? I think it at least starts with what they call the "National Blend of Models" that is then adjusted by individual offices before the forecast data actually goes into NWS NDFD forecast grids. Here's a a link to some info about that: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_about and you can also see the text output for the NBM for airports across the US by navigating through this directory: http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/blend/prod/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshWeather Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Brad p's final call map inched the snow amounts back north a little after he brought them south a little last night. Jas the entirety of mecklenburg county in 2-4 range when last night he had charlotte metro almost in the 4-8 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Another 2" qpf run for the RAP with 18" snow totals in the Triad. HRRR isn't far behind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: Another 2" qpf run for the RAP with 18" snow totals in the Triad. HRRR isn't far behind. Can you post the map? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, NCBlizzard said: I think it at least starts with what they call the "National Blend of Models" that is then adjusted by individual offices before the forecast data actually goes into NWS NDFD forecast grids. Here's a a link to some info about that: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/nbm_about and you can also see the text output for the NBM for airports across the US by navigating through this directory: http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/blend/prod/ Hey I really appreciate it! For others, here's the versions that were released: V1.0 - V2.0 The first version of the NBM was released January 6, 2016 in CONUS AWIPS 16.1.1, after Congress mandated that the NWS develop a blended model approach following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This first version used 3 models (GFS, GEFS mean, CMCE mean) and covered temperature, wind, and sky cover over the CONUS (Continental United States) region two times a day. Version 2, released November 15, 2016 in CONUS and OCONUS (outside-CONUS) AWIPS 16.2.2, added coverage over Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. V3.0 Version 3.0, released July 27th, 2017 (AWIPS 17.3.1) incorporated additional global and mesoscale models for the CONUS, OCONUS, and Oceanic domains along with running hourly and providing 1-36h forecasts. Several new weather elements were added to this version such as calibrated Probability of Precipitation (6-hour) and QPF, ceiling height and visibility, and weather, snow, and ice forecasts to name a few. An exhaustive lists of weather elements added to V3.0 can be found in NWS SCN 17-59. V3.1 NBM V3.1, which is planned to be implemented October 3, 2018 (AWIPS 18.1.1) will continue to incorporate additional global models (i.e.., ECMWF (deterministic and ensemble)) and mesoscale models (i.e., HRRR-Extended (1-36h guidance)) into its suite of model guidance to cover the CONUS, OCONUS, and Oceanic domains. This upgrade will enable the NBM to fill existing product gaps requested by the Aviation, Fire Weather, Water Resources, and Marine NWS Service Program Offices. To date, NBM data has been packaged in GRIB2 and only provided forecasts at gridpoints. NBM V3.1 will introduce a new text product (similar to MOS-station bulletins) that will provide NBM forecasts at stations. The data in these bulletins are the NBM’s nearest grid point forecast to the corresponding station. We will be generating four individual NBM text bulletin products every hour, each covering different forecast horizons. For a complete discussion concerning these messages along with an exhaustive listing weather elements that will be added to NBM V3.1 and their dissemination times please see the following NBM V3.1 SCN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 ^^and that's why we see jumps every few hour. As the models change their depictions the values are then pasted on to your respective grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 @lilj4425 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Flakes starting to fall on Boone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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