Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Overall setup still supported for a sig storm for the SE... Don't get hung up on the details yet. 12z GFS was weaker with the s/w... thus the more suppressed solution. Also was dragging its feet on building in the CAD high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 lol the GFS strikes again.. The sooner this version of the model is replaced the better. It doesn't even get moisture to Northern NC, Southern VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Even though the HP is somewhat weaker with this run of the GFS, it is a good sign that the HP is hanging back some and lower correct? I believe that is what is causing the run to be more suppressed compared to the 6z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: lol the GFS strikes again.. The sooner this version of the model is replaced the better. It doesn't even get moisture to Northern NC, Southern VA You might need to make a trip this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 31 and sleet for clt in the middle of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Lol it just scoots right out to sea. Still some decent wintery precip totals for southern parts of SW/central NC and NW SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 34 minutes ago, ILMRoss said: Agree with this, the places that have won with previous storms will likely win again. This is just such a beefy, large storm that the jackpot area could be 14-20 inches instead of 10-14 inches like our last couple of miller As. There was a storm in late January 2009 that this storm kind of reminds me of, don't know if the telecommunications/setup was the same but I remember that storm as another rumbling, west to east long duration event. I stayed in a suburb of Winston Salem with family friends and got a great storm. I would though, not hang my hat on the fact that this CAD high will be there. The 00z GFS, while an outlier, was also completely plausible, with an arctic trough/front creating warm air advection ahead of it in the NE and completely sabotaging the cold air supply. I would never hang my hat on anything the GFS depicts, however the euro at this range is generally pretty good with overall pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12z CMC is a hardcore winter storm parts of west-central NC up into VA....but it still has the Miller Bish look of running a low toward northern GA then transfer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z CMC is a hardcore winter storm parts of west-central NC up into VA....but it still has the Miller Bish look of running a low toward northern GA then transfer to the coast I'm liking what I'm seeing but .... 48 HR Rule - NEVER trust ANY model showing snow in the SE past 48 hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It isn't a great run but it could be worse. As everyone said, don't get lost in a single op run. I am definitely thinking it will be more of a mixed-p event for most at this stage rather than a 12-24 inch blockbuster. I think if it comes down to riding the DGEX when all is said and done then it is best to head over to the sanitarium. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z CMC is a hardcore winter storm parts of west-central NC up into VA....but it still has the Miller Bish look of running a low toward northern GA then transfer to the coast No Bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, eyewall said: It isn't a great run but it could be worse. As everyone said, don't get lost in a single op run. I am definitely thinking it will be more of a mixed-p event for most at this stage rather than a 12-24 inch blockbuster. I think if it comes down to riding the DGEX when all is said and done then it is best to head over to the sanitarium. We'll know it's a stock SE winter storm once you break out the GFS fail boat gif...welcome back 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z CMC is a hardcore winter storm parts of west-central NC up into VA....but it still has the Miller Bish look of running a low toward northern GA then transfer to the coast We only use cmc for thermal profiles, and CAD strength! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: I would never hang my hat on anything the GFS depicts, however the euro at this range is generally pretty good with overall pattern recognition. In all honesty with this being a ss wave we shouldn't read too much into the gfs. This should be the year the euro gets back on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 soundings for clt aren't good verbatim. a lot of sleet and frz rain with plain cold rain to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Cheers for Western Ears said: Even though the HP is somewhat weaker with this run of the GFS, it is a good sign that the HP is hanging back some and lower correct? I believe that is what is causing the run to be more suppressed compared to the 6z? No, you want to see a healthy HP over the NE to funnel in cold, dry air ahead of and during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Been doing this since the winter of 2000. I can assure absolutely everybody that this is exactly what we want to see right now. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Been saying it for days the old GFS is putrid putting it nicely. Wouldn’t put much stock into it. FV3 CMC and EURO are going to lead the charge on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheers for Western Ears Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: No, you want to see a healthy HP over the NE to funnel in cold, dry air ahead of and during the storm. Okay, Thanks. New to the forum so I appreciate the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: soundings for clt aren't good verbatim. a lot of sleet and frz rain with plain cold rain to start. Good track, but not cold enough. I want to see the the 850s south of Rock Hill at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 37 minutes ago, gearhead302 said: And now the wheels come off. This is precisely why you don't hype a snow event in SC 6 days out. The north/warm trend is always inevitable Orangeburg never had wheels to come off! He's been on jack stands the whole time!!!! 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Orangeburg never had wheels to come off! He's been on jack stands the whole time!!!!Lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Lol at Goofy "Aw crap I was suppose to have a storm along the coast, here let me blowup this LP near Charleston" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Definitely a strong CAD signature...notice the warm air to the west of the Apps. My personal forecast still favors your normal CAD areas with a rain/ice/snow mix in Central NC. We need the high to be a little stronger or the models to underestimate surface temps, which they normally do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Hr66 on the FV3 is trending colder than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We only use cmc for thermal profiles, and CAD strength! It's frustrating that it keeps hanging on to the further north track of the low...i want to see it's profiles with the further south low track. As usual a lot of conflicting signs...the gfs has a decent low track but it's lack of high pressure over the mid atlantic results in little in the way of cad/caa. The canadian has a much better high but terrible low track and the end result is the same. Short of this low getting totally squashed, it seems like nc is likely to get something rather significant.....whether it's snow or ice. The same can't be said though for ne ga/upstate...especially ne ga. Biggest concern for areas south of nc is high pressure strength/not building in time and lack of any low dewpoints which means CAA will have to do the trick.....which we all know doesn't often work out. Really want to see that high building into the mid atlantic faster....certainly a lot more than the gfs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Orangeburg never had wheels to come off! He's been on jack stands the whole time!!!! You have no idea how bad I needed that laughing fit I just had after reading that... Thank you 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Whats this fv3 im hearing aboutSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, ozmaea said: Whats this fv3 im hearing about Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk FV3-GFS, it is replacing the old one come next month https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018120312&fh=240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, ozmaea said: Whats this fv3 im hearing about Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk A new weenie model! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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