FallsLake Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 So for RDU folks, the 12z NAM did come in slightly colder. Meaning the initial snow line setups just south and east of Wake County. Then it still slowly pushes NW through the event. The last run had it eventually turning to rain back into Durham/Orange counties. But this run keeps the rain line no farther NW then the RDU airport until very late in the game; when the bulk of the precip is over. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: This is precisely my concern right now. Last night models were showing changeover here between 11 am and 1 pm, hence GSP moving my WSW up to noon. But temps have been 3-4 degrees or more above forecast all night long and continues to refuse to budge this morning. I know that we’ll see changeover by the heart of the storm, but going to miss out on a lot more qpf than initially expected before then. Local temps are as low as 33 at sky valley and 38 at the dot station in clayton currently which is about where they should be. I haven't seen anything that has changed that would lead me to believe your changeover wouldn't be around mid day to early afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mstr4j Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, burrel2 said: absolutely... I didn't mean that the chances stop at travelers rest. I would love to be living in Landrum right now! absolutely - I work up that way and told many that a potential huge snow was coming their way - I'm probably 10-12 miles south and east of Landrum right on the I-85 corridor but luckily my area IMO is still considered Northern Upstate - it's such a sharp gradient in these locations! Hoping for a bigun! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 SREF Mean up to half a foot for RDU and 10” for Roxboro. 8” looks like a good call for Durham. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I have a hard time buying that in the the heart of the storm on the NAM Hi-Res that isn't snow in Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3K NAM much more of a warm nose up into the Triad. A lot of sleet after about 15Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Hrrr looks good again for south charlotte. Snow through 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Evidence of the 12z shift to colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 On the topic of the upper waves. The core of our storm is the upper wave currently over W Texas. The trailing upper wave that drops down is currently over N Montana / Saskatchewan - it will drop SE into Arkansas and down thru the SE. Some earlier model runs were more impressive with it, but not as much now. Still, the 06z Euro says there could be some light snow showers with it Sunday overnight into Monday morning in E TN / N GA / W NCSC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: 3K NAM much more of a warm nose up into the Triad. A lot of sleet after about 15Z. Yea 3k at 32 has the low around Wilmington. That will promote warming and thus a more “sleety” sounding usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, beanskip said: Evidence of the 12z shift to colder. Was really expecting this yesterday to kind of have the final guess locked in. I really think the usual snow starved areas end up doing well in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I'm riding the 12Z HRRR until it tells me otherwise: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: On the topic of the upper waves. The core of our storm is the upper wave currently over W Texas. The trailing upper wave that drops down is currently over N Montana / Saskatchewan - it will drop SE into Arkansas and down thru the SE. Some earlier model runs were more impressive with it, but not as much now. Still, the 06z Euro says there could be some light snow showers with it Sunday overnight into Monday morning in E TN / N GA / W NCSC If this much snow falls you're also gonna see temps plummet so anything that fell would stick. It could be an intriguing little bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 As mentioned yesterday this is a sleet storm for most (CLT/RDU even the Triad). While I do think the Triad can see maybe 8 inches (and thats a lot, this remains a snowstorm for Winston West and a mixed bag of let down (if you like snow) for the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 SREF mean is almost 12 inches here. All but 5 members show 10 to 20 inches. All above 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 NAM colder at surface but really gung ho on a 700mb warm nose this run. HRRR says nope, however. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, burgertime said: I have a hard time buying that in the the heart of the storm on the NAM Hi-Res that isn't snow in Charlotte. See the 700mb temp maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Wow said: NAM colder at surface but really gung ho on a 700mb warm nose this run. HRRR says nope, however. Colder look makes sense if you look at current conditions, the high pressure back around the Lakes is 1038, 850’s are good, 925 looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Wow said: See the 700mb temp maps. Oh I know what it shows...just with thickness right on the line and that heavy of precip I don't buy it...but I guess if you buy one part you gotta buy the car on these modesl haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: As mentioned yesterday this is a sleet storm for most (CLT/RDU even the Triad). While I do think the Triad can see maybe 8 inches (and thats a lot, this remains a snowstorm for Winston West and a mixed bag of let down (if you like snow) for the majority. It must be nice to speak so authoritatively on a subject so few have been able to fully grasp. I envy that. True clarity is much harder for me. By the way, you opened a parenthesis and didn’t close it. 8 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I don’t know if there is a site or if this is available however, is there a place I can get live soundings anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: As mentioned yesterday this is a sleet storm for most (CLT/RDU even the Triad). While I do think the Triad can see maybe 8 inches (and thats a lot, this remains a snowstorm for Winston West and a mixed bag of let down (if you like snow) for the majority. Very well could be; and with past events (and being marginal with upper and surface temps) we should expect this outcome. Like I stated in an earlier post, if it ends up being primarily sleet it would be impressive to see all the forecasted qpf. Liquid to sleet would be ~4". I would call that a win. Plus amazing sledding for the kids.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: It must be nice to speak so authoritatively on a subject so few have been able to fully grasp. I envy that. True clarity is much harder for me. By the way, you opened a parenthesis and didn’t close it. Merry Christmas! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, burgertime said: Oh I know what it shows...just with thickness right on the line and that heavy of precip I don't buy it...but I guess if you buy one part you gotta buy the car on these modesl haha. Yes, it's definitely close. I don't think we're going to know until we're right at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1038 pressure now in southern Ohio. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM. Check this error. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 As of 9:30 am, Atlanta had picked up 0.22" rain. That brings 2018's total precipitation to 60.08". 2018 is only the 18th year on record that Atlanta has had 60" or more precipitation. 2018 now ranks as Atlanta's 17th wettest year on record, just ahead of 1994 when 60.02" precipitation was recorded. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 RAP has all of NC snow. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, CADEffect said: I don’t know if there is a site or if this is available however, is there a place I can get live soundings anywhere? University of Wyoming has a good site for the actual balloon launch soundings (launched twice a day at 12z and 00z) - http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Radar loop is straight west to east from texas to sc coast. The finger precip stayed south of NC and TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now