December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[wxduncan]

6 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Euro at 48, the slp already south of Cape Lookout

The faster track reduce totals for western nc or no?

[Jet Stream Rider]

Not sure. Can't see the Euro precip maps

[insipidlight]

I'm too scared to repost any from behind paywall. Not really, ensembles are still sitting at and over 20", only difference is spread is a bit more NE over VA

[wncsnow]

Euro is a big hit and does expand precip North some. Timing is a bit faster 

[wxduncan]

Snowfall Totals From 00Z Euro Tonight:

 

[wncsnow]

not finished

[insipidlight]

There's a strict policy when you sign up, saying you are not allowed to repost anything with ECMWF stamped on it in any form. 

Please, please correct me if this is petty..

T850 follows I-85 NE Charlotte - Durham - Raleigh sorta now... definitely more to the east too

[Jet Stream Rider]

Basically every model every run, this thing comes in like a hammer. Radar looks it too.

 

[WeathermanTy]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

not finished

Definitely more Ice in the Midlands of SC. 

[shaggy]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

not finished

Seems expanded east towards the coast also doesnt it? 

[wxdawg10]

1 minute ago, shaggy said:

Seems expanded east towards the coast also doesnt it? 

definitely

[Jet Stream Rider]

8 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Why can't you post the maps? 

Free sites like Tropical Tidbits, Weathernerds, or Pivotalweather have only the free ECMWF products, other services like precip panels are pay only.

[seether]

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018120800/420f137fcfe7b02b1082beb231e6e2cd/snow-depth-in/20181210-1300z.html


Good site for FREE euro precip.

[luvrrroforange]

 
Upstate SC followers hope it’s correct.
 
 
.

I sure hope so!!

Sent from my SM-N920P using Tapatalk

[shaggy]

22 minutes ago, wxdawg10 said:

definitely

First time I remember seeing that type of snow totals down to the sounds and down towards new bern. Probably wont happe  but it's enough to keep me intrigued.

[davenc]

I live in Concord near CCharlotte Motor Speedway. I love that these new runs have me right on the 12" line. BUT, I know how this wrx out imby about 75% of the time. If this storm dumps 12" in Concord,  it will be an historic event for December. 

While we have had awesome totals in the past (13", 17", CLT proper had 23" in the Ballantyne area years back.) These totals are once a decade type events.

I hope I see 30". I hope we all Do. But this is my personal take on things regardless of models.

Rain, snow, maybe a slushy 2-4", then sleet,  and LOTS of it. It drives me insane to think about it because 10miles N of me as the crow flies Kannapolis, China Grove will easily be in mostly snow. 

All that to say I literally live in that cursed zone. So I'll keep y'all updated because if I start to see this storm play out snowier, points North and West are gonna get CRUSHED!!

Cheers and Beers to all!

 

[davenc]

3 hours ago, Wow said:

Yes yes.. rain/snow/ice line dancing around ... And will do so on forecast models until it's actually happening.  I know how this plays out.  The players are set. I'm waiting to nowcast to know my fate.

Mooresville usually fares very well with snow in this set up. 

But the fact that it's barely December worries me a bit. I'm in Concord, my heart is already aching. About 75% of the time I'm on the wrong side of the transition zone. In fact it might actually run through my backyard. Best of luck!

[timnc910]

Out to hour 9 on the nam. the high pressure is 2 mb stronger and further east.

[Jonathan]

Euro was an absolute paste bomb for western NC all the way through SWVA.

 

Roanoke VA 12"

Martinsville 20" 

Greensboro 17"

Hickory 20"

Wilkesboro 20"

Wake County 5-13" from SE to NW

Charlotte 7-10" from SE to NW

[neilpappas75]

I used to be good at this before I moved to the sunshine state. I am now back, partly to see snow. My last predictions were way off back about 11 years ago, but before that, I was spot on a lot. I think we can all forgot frz rn. We, meaning, anyone not below the foothills or upstate of SC. So anyone there or north. I do believe that looking at the thicknesses, sleet is going to play a huge part. That can bring down totals. But I do not think the people in SC are going to have a define transition line like they are telling us. So northern Spartanburg or Greenville counties will get about the same amount of snow as middle parts IMO. It may be a small difference, but not much. Unless the track takes a different path. Because to me the small difference in temps at 850 or wet bulb will be met with the velocity of the precip for the more southern folks.

 

Not counting mountain tops, I think the gold spots will start about Weaverville NC to Statesville NC, up to around Boone and Wilkesboro. I think they can expect a solid 18 inches. With locally more or less.

In the Upstate of SC, I think the southern parts of the counties will see 4 inches, and the upper with 10 plus locally. I expect GSP to get around 11 inches of snow with around 6-9 of that measurable. Depending on when the sleet mixes in and what time. How it ends. I am crossing fingers here. And I might be a little snow happy so my totals might need a snow lovers adjustment LOL. GL guys.

[burgertime]

If you were to believe the HRRR at the end of it's run. Take with a big grain of salt. 

 

[beanskip]

Strange NAM run — much less precip in most of NC. Also went back to raging sleet storm for I 85 and even I 40 corridor. 

[seether]

img? Beanskip

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Strange NAM run — much less precip in most of NC. Also went back to raging sleet storm for I 85 and even I 40 corridor. 

Not going to buy into that run unless other models follow suit. We are getting to the time now when the higher resolution models will be taking center stage.

[JoshM]

Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Not going to buy into that run unless other models follow suit. We are getting to the time now when the higher resolution models will be taking center stage.

And that be some heavy snow

[burgertime]

12 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Strange NAM run — much less precip in most of NC. Also went back to raging sleet storm for I 85 and even I 40 corridor. 

Hi-RES NAM is still pretty crazy with totals...*GULP*...also has it as all sleet for most below 40. 

 

[neilpappas75]

17 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Strange NAM run — much less precip in most of NC. Also went back to raging sleet storm for I 85 and even I 40 corridor. 

I think it's because all the thicknesses are too high even all the way up to around Virginia. And every 6 hours, they get better, but not good enough.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Hi-RES NAM is still pretty crazy with totals...*GULP*...also has it as all sleet for most below 40. 

 

Yep, just looking at soundings, it has temps just above freezing at the 700mb -825mb level last run it was right at 0C. Is it right? .... who knows at this point. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

15 minutes ago, JoshM said:

And that be some heavy snow

Yes it is.... I would not want to be a forecaster at the NWS in GSP today. So many possibilities to consider.

[Poimen]

The NAM soundings indicate the problem may be a loss of saturation in the snow growth zone more than a warm nose. Either way, this is pause for concern.