BullCityWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 ICON seems to be out on its own island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The 12z GFS is about to start it's run on TT. Let's see what kind of craziness the the 12z suite will us bring today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I agree with the cautionary statements at this lead. It is encouraging though to see the basic setup of strong-ish and cold high pressure suppressing a southern slider of a surface low pressure. And its certainly fun to track these potentials with all our fancy and evolving digital modeling. Obviously it should be no surprise if most of us end up with cold rain, but there is at this point still a chance for some frozen precip types. We will see. Enjoy the ride. At least we are out of hurricane season for now! Cheers everyone for another winter season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It is far from the perfect track for the RDU area on the overnight Euro, but there would be at least a backside deform band for a couple of hours and a quick couple of inches in that scenario I would think. Otherwise it would be mostly rain/mixed-p . Obviously that will shift again and it is a single op run so we shall see. We are far from full consensus at this time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Snow or the standard, 28 degrees with freezing rain. I was born in High Point NC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Scud said: Snow or the standard, 28 degrees with freezing rain. I was born in High Point NC. 33 and rain or 32 and sun. The standard. I was born in Columbia SC. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: ICON seems to be out on its own island. Are you referencing because of its depiction or warmth or both? I mean it’s def a plausible outcome at this range. It’s track isn’t far off from any of the major models. It is by far the warmest of anyone however. It has the HP originally in northern New England but has it exit stage before precip really ever gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: It is far from the perfect track for the RDU area on the overnight Euro, but there would be at least a backside deform band for a couple of hours and a quick couple of inches in that scenario I would think. Otherwise it would be mostly rain/mixed-p . Obviously that will shift again and it is a single op run so we shall see. We are far from full consensus at this time. what a nice storm to welcome you back to the SE snow reality. hoping for the best but expecting the worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: If the modelling is close to being accurate on the HP, I'm not overly worried about surface temps. This rivals some of the better HP configurations I've seen in a while. A lot about this setup reminds me of Dec 2002/2003. Mostly driven by good timing of a HP system and excellent split-flow +PNA setup. I think this will definitely have a solid ICE trainsition zone b/n the snow and rain. The outlying question is how much interaction we get w/ the northern stream on the backside, as that will likely start edging the SLP closer to the coastline and push the ICE futher NW. This setup is likely to be a Miller A/B hybrid w/ a SLP in the lower deep south and then potentially riding the coastline. I really like areas of NW NC. Foothills/mountains into southern Virginia when it comes to pure snow. I am soooo tempted to just go to Banner elk for my AirBNB w/ the family and hope we get trapped lol. Agree with this, the places that have won with previous storms will likely win again. This is just such a beefy, large storm that the jackpot area could be 14-20 inches instead of 10-14 inches like our last couple of miller As. There was a storm in late January 2009 that this storm kind of reminds me of, don't know if the telecommunications/setup was the same but I remember that storm as another rumbling, west to east long duration event. I stayed in a suburb of Winston Salem with family friends and got a great storm. I would though, not hang my hat on the fact that this CAD high will be there. The 00z GFS, while an outlier, was also completely plausible, with an arctic trough/front creating warm air advection ahead of it in the NE and completely sabotaging the cold air supply. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Bad start at 12z with the ICON. Low track still looked good to me but it blew up and cold air was absent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, WarmNose said: Bad start at 12z with the ICON. Low track still looked good to me but it blew up and cold air was absent HOWEVER, it was actually colder and further south than it's previous run. That would be a nice trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, FLO said: 33 and rain or 32 and sun. The standard. I was born in Columbia SC. I lived in Columbia for a Summer. Ate at the Lizards Thicket, 95 everyday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, DopplerWx said: what a nice storm to welcome you back to the SE snow reality. hoping for the best but expecting the worst. If it verifies. It could end up easily putting me in the sanitarium lol. I miss snow already, and in VT they have had an epic November. I am just happy I was there for the Pi Day event in 2017 with my first ever 30 incher: 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, eyewall said: If it verifies. It could end up easily putting me in the sanitarium lol. I miss snow already, and in VT they have had an epic November. I am just happy I was there for the Pi Day event in 2017 with my first ever 30 incher: good lord, i cannot imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 Not a good start... Out to 78, HP 1mb weaker and slightly further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, eyewall said: If it verifies. It could end up easily putting me in the sanitarium lol. I miss snow already, and in VT they have had an epic November. I am just happy I was there for the Pi Day event in 2017 with my first ever 30 incher: What would you guess the rate to be in that first pic? Looks like about 3"/hr at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gearhead302 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Orangeburgwx said: Not a good start... Out to 78, HP 1mb weaker and slightly further north... And now the wheels come off. This is precisely why you don't hype a snow event in SC 6 days out. The north/warm trend is always inevitable 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: What would you guess the rate to be in that first pic? Looks like about 3"/hr at least. It was 5"/hr and it was insane. I believe we had 9 inches in 2 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: It was 5"/hr and it was insane. I believe we had 9 inches in 2 hours. That's pretty amazing. I have never seen snow like that in person. Your pic is one of the snowiest pics I've seen. I'll bet that was so fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Cold Rain said: That's pretty amazing. I have never seen snow like that in person. Your pic is one of the snowiest pics I've seen. I'll bet that was so fun. It was amazing but believe it or not things re-opened quick up there. Awesome powder in the ski areas (some saw 60"). I still think jan 2000 in Southern Pines was the most significant snow event I have been through in terms of impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12z UKMet on the early maps is a nice slider with sfc low from roughly Houston to Brunswick, GA. Not as phase happy this run...southern wave makes a clean sweep west to east....it looks a bit north of the snowy 06z FV3 run though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Also on the UKMet it keeps running the damming high out ahead of our storm a bit too much....it's not running in tandem with the low like the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, eyewall said: It was amazing but believe it or not things re-opened quick up there. Awesome powder in the ski areas (some saw 60"). I still think jan 2000 in Southern Pines was the most significant snow event I have been through in terms of impact. With that 2000 storm there were some high rates as well. I'm with you, for impact is was huge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12z GFS definitely coming in a little south of last run...supported by 500mb southern wave handling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12 gfs not as amped and looks a little colder at 850 compared to 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12z GFS further south but also slower with the northern s/w to drag the HP east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12z GFS definitely coming in a little south of last run...supported by 500mb southern wave handling Yeah at 120 its slightly SE of the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 It looks like a strung-out mess and there is a vort diving into the lakes that is blocking our cold air feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, franklin NCwx said: It looks like a strung-out mess and there is a vort diving into the lakes that is blocking our cold air feed. I think we can call it a baby step toward the snowy FV3 and go to lunch I guess 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, griteater said: I think we can call it a baby step toward the snowy FV3 and go to lunch I guess Its definitely a big step away from the cutter/amped solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now