SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Oh man.... I really hope the Fv3 hasn't been just incredibly consistently wrong this whole time cause it is just continuing to drop the hammer with every run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Rah as of 5:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Better not. At 0z you will wish you had kept it! Hmm.. why is RAH upping totals? Surely they know global eye-candy at this range isn’t that helpful.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, burgertime said: Just being insane and watching from Amsterdam. Much more exciting than the weather here (though we have a few streets that are more exciting than weather). Speaking of updates, I've noticed on my social media feeds my friends seem to have no clue about this storm. Hopefully word gets out cause no matter what it's going to cause major headaches. That makes two of us watching from afar, though you are much farther away. Is it still unseasonably warm out in western Europe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 They specifically mentioned in the afd that the NAM showed cold mid level layers and minimized a warm nose until later on. They cautioned clearly that things could be very different with minor changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I must say I'm developing quite the weather crush on the FV3 - it gets colder every run! This is how weather models are SUPPOSED to work! 7 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, wake4est said: Rah as of 5:30 Very hard to read... What is the RDU forecast total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, donsutherland1 said: That makes two of us watching from afar, though you are much farther away. Is it still unseasonably warm out in western Europe? It's getting back to normal now. Summer was brutal. Interestingly last year the snow threats in NC were mirroring the threats here. Looks like we have a week of moderate temps before the cold comes in, but due to being so close to the sea it takes a bit to get a good snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, wake4est said: Rah as of 5:30 In other words, if you live inside the dotted line, just flip a coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Nraleigh said: Very hard to read... What is the RDU forecast total? 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, burgertime said: It's getting back to normal now. Summer was brutal. Interestingly last year the snow threats in NC were mirroring the threats here. Looks like we have a week of moderate temps before the cold comes in, but due to being so close to the sea it takes a bit to get a good snow here. Summer turned hot in August in New York and the early fall in the eastern U.S. was much warmer than normal. Hopefully, there will be some opportunities this winter for some good snowfall where you are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 FV3. Not many more of these wonderful runs to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This goes out to WidreMann... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: I must say I'm developing quite the weather crush on the FV3 - it gets colder every run! This is how weather models are SUPPOSED to work! I was thinking the models would start doing that anyway just because of the setup. I'm leaning more towards that though I'm still sceptical of the QPF totals, but if storms have been overperforming then I guess it's possible. Just so used to those big QPF totals never actually panning out during winter storms in NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: This goes out to WidreMann... Love the 24" in Sparkle City! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: I was thinking the models would start doing that anyway just because of the setup. I'm leaning more towards that though I'm still sceptical of the QPF totals, but if storms have been overperforming then I guess it's possible. Just so used to those big QPF totals never actually panning out during winter storms in NC. I'm more skeptical of the cold than the QPF given we just had the wettest fall on record. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 32 minutes ago, FallsLake said: This would be a fun storm for RDU. 6" of snow and 1" of ice. This isn’t a 10:1 ratio event. That would equal 2-3 inches. Still nice though!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow dog said: Love the 24" in Sparkle City! It'll be interesting to see how that 7-inch forecast materializes in Little Rock, Nashville, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: I'm more skeptical of the cold than the QPF given we just had the wettest fall on record. Yea I've been totally out of the mix on how wet it's been there outside of the hurricane. I just figured the models would start getting colder as we moved into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, wake4est said: They specifically mentioned in the afd that the NAM showed cold mid level layers and minimized a warm nose until later on. They cautioned clearly that things could be very different with minor changes. Thats the thing, a few degrees one way or the other is gonna be huge for many people....even down my way a few degrees colder aloft and we could get several inches or more of snow/sleet. The flip side to that though is a few degrees warmer aloft and its sleet on top of above freezing surface temps well inland.....and all rain for us eastern folks. Need the suppressed track to win out, can not have the low right off the coast that never works out well for anyone other than the deep inland foothill areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, Nraleigh said: Very hard to read... What is the RDU forecast total? https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf see the link for better resolution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I know it's getting out of the useful range, but the 18z GEFS really beefed up frozen precip and total qpf from 12z it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilpappas75 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wow said: I'm more skeptical of the cold than the QPF given we just had the wettest fall on record. Have to agree. That's what I have been concerned about the entire time. There is enough QPF. But the temps are delicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 looking at current radar the returns out ahead of the system are moving in a southeastern fashion. It will be interesting to see if that leads to a more suppressed track than being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I think Allan mentioned earlier that alot of the moisture will get eaten up by dryer air as it moves into the piedmont and the storm won't really crank until sunday. This might cut some totals and i'm not sure if models take this into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, wxdawg10 said: I think Allan mentioned earlier that alot of the moisture will get eaten up by dryer air as it moves into the piedmont and the storm won't really crank until sunday. This might cut some totals being and i'm not sure if models take this into account. Modeling does take moistening the atmosphere into effect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Even the Kuchera numbers are insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The GFS FV3 refuses to budge. If it verifies it will be the new king. It did well from what I remember with the hurricanes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Even the Kuchera numbers are insane. Good lord man! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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