GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, CADEffect said: Something to consider the convection along the Gulf Coast needs to stay in check. Anyone else seen if it will be a problem for QPF Not sure much analysis can be done until the storm gets there. Always a potential though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, CADEffect said: Something to consider the convection along the Gulf Coast needs to stay in check. Anyone else seen if it will be a problem for QPF Doesn't appear to be also has a lot to do with orientation...convection can also enhance banding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: Reports to the west of warmer mid levels than modeling showed. Nam going north, GFS calming down. All we can hope for is the FV3 and Euro hold. That’s all sleet tho. This is a sleet of r cold rain for majority of us regardless of what models show. Maybe read more and post less? I don't know if you're trolling us or being serious. Where are the mods at? 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doss2k Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 You haven't lived in NC long enough if you don't expect a bust on every snow forecast. I am fine with less snow in Raleigh so long as its not being replaced by freezing rain. Just bust out with cold rain at that point won't be the first time and certainly not the last time it happens haha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Insanely tight gradient over Rabun County in NE GA. Less than an inch to more than a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Let's not start arguing. If you post a contrary forecast you need to back it up with sound reasoning or I will delete your posts. 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Doesn't appear to be also has a lot to do with orientation...convection can also enhance banding. From what I understand thunderstorms oriented perpendicular to the storm track essentially act as a firehouse of moisture into a system, whereas storms oriented parallel to the storm track can basically act to cut off the conveyor belt of moisture by disturbing the inflow into the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowDawg said: Insanely tight gradient over Rabun County in NE GA. Less than an inch to more than a foot. Elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 For those of y’all who are curious about gulf convection, you don’t want a horizontal (—)line across the gulf. If the storms are lined up like this (/) it can actually add to moisture. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Insanely tight gradient over Rabun County in NE GA. Less than an inch to more than a foot. Wow that is amazing lol. I just wish the wedge would start building down so we can see at least something frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, ILMRoss said: From what I understand thunderstorms oriented perpendicular to the storm track essentially act as a firehouse of moisture into a system, whereas storms oriented parallel to the storm track can basically act to cut off the conveyor belt of moisture by disturbing the inflow into the storm. Yea Allan did a good write up on it and I believe you're exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The 18z RGEM: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, CADEffect said: Elevation? Definitely a big factor, and from soundings the warm nose doesn't quite get into the far northern portion as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 18z RGEM: Well we know who Virginia is rooting for....I'm ready to see how this battle between ice and snow plays out and where the battle lines are. Also that cutoff on the RGEM is pretty wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18z Canadian remains formidable. Tracks the low directly over Charleston it looks like (those maps are always difficult). From there has it as a 993 sitting over Hatteras at hr 60 (in line with most of the high res models from 18z). http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=gemglb&run=18&stn=PNM&hh=060&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Looks like the RGEM is what, at least 75 miles north of any other guidance with the heaviest precipitation? Definitely an outlier, however given our history of NW trends as a storm approaches and the RGEM's reputation I certainly wouldn't completely discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This would be a fun storm for RDU. 6" of snow and 1" of ice. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, burgertime said: Well we know who Virginia is rooting for....I'm ready to see how this battle between ice and snow plays out and where the battle lines are. Also that cutoff on the RGEM is pretty wild. Given the ridge to the north, I suspect that the 18z run of the RGEM is an outlier. While I think the extreme eastern portion of Virginia could be in line for appreciable to significant snowfall, the overall body of the guidance still leads me to believe that the core of the heaviest snowfall will be over a portion of North Carolina. It will be interesting to see what the 0z guidance shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I'm thinking that for many of us that the threat of zr will be minimized by the marginally cold air mass. ZR accrues more quickly when there is a very cold and dry layer at ground level, this air mass does not have that level of cold, so accrual should be less severe. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Given the ridge to the north, I suspect that the 18z run of the RGEM is an outlier. While I think the extreme eastern portion of Virginia could be in line for appreciable to significant snowfall, the overall body of the guidance still leads me to believe that the core of the heaviest snowfall will be over a portion of North Carolina. It will be interesting to see what the 0z guidance shows. My money is gonna be AVL or somewhere abouts there. Thanks for the input, always know it's a fun time when you swing by our neck of the woods 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Sorry I’m catching up here, but what are we making of this terrible 18z NAM run? We tossing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: I'm thinking that for many of us that the threat of zr will be minimized by the marginally cold air mass. ZR accrues more quickly when there is a very cold and dry layer at ground level, this air mass does not have that level of cold, so accrual should be less severe. I agree, 31 or 32 degrees with moderate freezing rain will have at least half of that run off before it can freeze. I'll be real interested in the dew point to our north once the event evolves. Also as we get the initial snow, that can pull our temps down lower. If we happen to get into the upper 20s when we transition, the ice could be worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: This would be a fun storm for RDU. 6" of snow and 1" of ice. I am thinking that is what we get, but with less ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, ajr said: Sorry I’m catching up here, but what are we making of this terrible 18z NAM run? We tossing? Better not. At 0z you will wish you had kept it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, ajr said: Sorry I’m catching up here, but what are we making of this terrible 18z NAM run? We tossing? Depends on what your feelings are regarding verification scores with the RGEM and CMC? Both support the higher totals more north right now. GFS made a slight bump north with the precip. Is it a trend or just a slight adjustment? I know most the players will be on the playing field come 0z runs. Should predominantly nail everything down then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, burgertime said: My money is gonna be AVL or somewhere abouts there. Thanks for the input, always know it's a fun time when you swing by our neck of the woods It should be an exciting storm. Are you in North Carolina for the storm or watching developments from Amsterdam? P.S. RAH has updated its forecast map. RDU is now shown at 5" (vs. 2" from the earlier map). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18z ICON extracted data keeps MBY as snow until about 7PM on Sunday. It’s close, real close, to the transition line. You gotta smell the rain I’m telling myself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 FV3gfs is dropping 8 or 10 inches of snow here by midnight tomorrow. This is the best run yet for the upstate. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Brick Tamland said: I am thinking that is what we get, but with less ice. yeah, six inches of snow with some sleet and then 1/4 of ice would look nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, donsutherland1 said: It should be an exciting storm. Are you in North Carolina for the storm or watching developments from Amsterdam? P.S. RAH has updated its forecast map. RDU is now shown at 5" (vs. 2" from the earlier map). Just being insane and watching from Amsterdam. Much more exciting than the weather here (though we have a few streets that are more exciting than weather). Speaking of updates, I've noticed on my social media feeds my friends seem to have no clue about this storm. Hopefully word gets out cause no matter what it's going to cause major headaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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