PGAWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks like he increased totals a bit. It's actually down in Wake at least from 5-9" to 3-7" and he split the county in half (which makes more sense). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Looks like he increased totals a bit. No, he trimmed most back and decreased amounts on the north and east side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The RGEM will probably jump back east pretty quick, the slp moves around frame to frame in that rather large area of low pressure as the system organizes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Here in Rabun I am absolutely getting much more confident since last nights and this mornings runs, and hope you are right. But still being cautiously optimistic until I see exactly what our temp and dew point are in the morning. Currently 43 with a dew point of 26. If i could have i would have took off to clayton again because i think they will do really well but unfortunately there are things going on keeping me from doing it. At any rate, i'd be excited if i was you. It looks like once mixed precip or snow starts mid morning tomorrow it shouldn't stop for a long time and It's just a matter of how much of which....although if that warm nose above 850 isn't as strong as advertised or rates are heavy enough it could very well end up being mostly snow...except the light freezing stuff after the dry air punches in aloft sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I never know quite what to make of the RGEM. It always seems to have strange convective blobs. Is it known to be amped?? I know it can tend to have a cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LKN WX Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 36 minutes ago, griteater said: If you really want to dive in deep with the Euro on a free site, you can view temperatures at many layers at this link. It takes some getting use to, but for example, it has the vertical scroll bar on the right side here where you can essentially move up and down the column of the atmosphere and view not only 850mb temps, but 800mb temps as well. The Euro run that is out there now is the 00z from last night as it takes it a little longer to update. It says the 1z run will update around 3:30 https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?850h,temp,2018-12-09-18,35.376,-80.145,8,p:off Windy is a really good site. The Ventusky app is great as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Is it known to be amped?? I know it can tend to have a cold bias. I'm guessing the CMC/Rgem are wrong here since the Euro/gfs/fvgfs,ukmet,icon,NAM, etc are all tightly packed with a different solution. Rgem usually does great with thermal profiles and maybe a touch on the cold side for surface temps, but I don't think it can be used at the moment, b/c it's so off-beat synoptically speaking. (unless it's right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The FV3 has been running pretty well lately by the verification scores so we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Even as residual model uncertainty persists, my confidence in a scenario where parts of North Carolina receive a significant to major snowfall is high. Right now, I'm thinking that Greensboro and Hickory could challenge or exceed their biggest snowfall for the first 15 days of December and possibly even their December record snowfall. Parts of the region will also experience sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Those forms of precipitation will likely hold down accumulations to more modest levels in such cities as Charlotte and Raleigh. Nevertheless, I believe both cities will likely pick up 3"-6" snow. Below is a table showing my current thinking, the December 9 daily snowfall record, the December 1-15 snowfall record, and the December snowfall record. All in all, this should be quite an event for parts of the Carolinas and possibly a small portion of western Virginia. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18z run of the hrrr goes out to 36hr and is still running but i figured i would post it. shows rain but soundings have 2m temps at 46 (5 degrees higher than the forecast) so hopefully out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 RGEM has a sharper, more negatively tilted wave as early as 36 hours from now, which is causing the stronger solution. I don't know much about how the RGEM handles synoptics but I wouldn't attribute the run to mishandling of convection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: 18z run of the hrrr goes out to 36hr and is still running but i figured i would post it. shows rain but soundings have 2m temps at 46 (5 degrees higher than the forecast) so hopefully out to lunch. It's always way too warm at the surface. I am encouraged to see the rain/snow line so far south on it though. You can see where it's isothermal running through the upstate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, Lookout said: If i could have i would have took off to clayton again because i think they will do really well but unfortunately there are things going on keeping me from doing it. At any rate, i'd be excited if i was you. It looks like once mixed precip or snow starts mid morning tomorrow it shouldn't stop for a long time and It's just a matter of how much of which....although if that warm nose above 850 isn't as strong as advertised or rates are heavy enough it could very well end up being mostly snow...except the light freezing stuff after the dry air punches in aloft sunday. Yeah my thoughts were basically the same that I no longer expect surface conditions to really be a limiting factor, just the potential for more sleet and ZR reducing totals. Hopefully early onset and an In-Situ wedge with heavy rates as you said can help us reach our potential high end amounts. I think Sky Valley area on North end of county may be a lock for 18 plus at this point though. I wish we were getting this setup with some true arctic air to get more of the state into play but 2 years in row with significant winter weather all the way to Atlanta this early in December is certainly fighting against climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 33 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Yea the RGEM is straight nuts Burrell. Huge squall line modeled along with much more northern extension of snow with it. Lends credence to CMC that it may not be completely on crack. Kind of nuts with how close the event is now. They from the same family of programers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Euro Ensemble Mean Total Precip - last 4 runs....it shows 2.0 inches liquid there from Asheville to Charlotte. I distinctly remember it showing around 1.6 inches for the Feb '14 storm as a QPF comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Even as residual model uncertainty persists, my confidence in a scenario where parts of North Carolina receive a significant to major snowfall is high. Right now, I'm thinking that Greensboro and Hickory could challenge or exceed their biggest snowfall for the first 15 days of December and possibly even their December record snowfall. Parts of the region will also experience sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Those forms of precipitation will likely hold down accumulations to more modest levels in such cities as Charlotte and Raleigh. Nevertheless, I believe both cities will likely pick up 3"-6" snow. Below is a table showing my current thinking, the December 9 daily snowfall record, the December 1-15 snowfall record, and the December snowfall record. All in all, this should be quite an event for parts of the Carolinas and possibly a small portion of western Virginia. I am trying really hard to rein in my excitement, but when Don Sutherland drops in and specifically mentions Hickory...wowza! It's about to get real... Thanks to all the great mets and enthusiasts who frequent our forum and who lend their expertise to others. I so enjoy reading your thoughtful comments and explanations to those of us not as skilled in the art but very much as interested it. You guys are the best! Here's hoping we reel this one in... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: They from the same family of programers Ahhhh so I see! I did not know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I made some minor changes to my snow totals map. The reasoning is below... I am still concerned about the warm nose; however, I did expand the 10-20 inch range to cover parts of the foothills and the 6-12 inch range to cover most of the Triad. I also included Charlotte in the 2-5 inch range as it appears temperatures might remain around freezing through the event. The Skew-T diagrams show a very difficult forecast for nearly everyone along and east of I-85. For Greensboro, the temperature aloft is very close to 32, which makes forecasting a nightmare. Usually, the warm nose wins out for most locations near I-85, and sometimes it wins out in the Catawba Valley and foothills. So, as for now, I am going to continue to play it conservative near I-85 because of the warm air advection and the potential for sleet instead of snow. It is very difficult to keep the warm air away during any winter storm in the Carolinas, and once the warm nose arrives, it is nearly impossible to remove it. On the flip side, the amount of moisture with this storm is really amazing. Some parts may receive 2 inches equivalent of rain, which is a lot of snow and sleet. While I do not expect the snow ratio to be 10:1, I still expect there will be areas in the mountains, foothills, and even parts of the Catawba Valley or Triad that see a foot of snow. While the verdict is still out, this has the opportunity to be a storm to remember for parts of NC and VA. If you would like to watch my latest video update from this afternoon, here is the link: http://www.wxjordan.com/forecast/12-7-2018-friday-afternoon-winter-weather-update/ 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I like cranky, and I think he can have some moments of brilliance, but often I find his reasoning to be oversimplified... like right here. Gee, if it were as easy as looking at cirrus clouds, I'd be out of a job right now. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The convection from gulf fetch on the Texas coast looks to be happening now on WV and radar. Earlier and more than modeled Looks juicy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Shane said: The convection from gulf fetch on the Texas coast looks to be happening now on WV and radar. Earlier and more than modeled Looks juicy Yep, impressive looking for sure. Loop - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Shane said: The convection from gulf fetch on the Texas coast looks to be happening now on WV and radar. Earlier and more than modeled Looks juicy Are we beginning the radar hallucinations this early? Lol jk, hope it juices up big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM isn't as wet with the onset of snow compared to 12z. Still has precip breaking out but stays around GSP. Out to 21 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ontherocks Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 39 minutes ago, Lookout said: If i could have i would have took off to clayton again because i think they will do really well but unfortunately there are things going on keeping me from doing it. At any rate, i'd be excited if i was you. It looks like once mixed precip or snow starts mid morning tomorrow it shouldn't stop for a long time and It's just a matter of how much of which....although if that warm nose above 850 isn't as strong as advertised or rates are heavy enough it could very well end up being mostly snow...except the light freezing stuff after the dry air punches in aloft sunday. Hope that rings true for Lumpkin/White county too....seems the warm nose may come get us, but also we typically do great with CAD.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18Z NAM out to 24 it's a touch colder than the 12z run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, burgertime said: NAM isn't as wet with the onset of snow compared to 12z. Still has precip breaking out but stays around GSP. Out to 21 hours. Lots of mid level dry air (this at GSO) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This run of the NAM looks like it's slower with the LP system as well. Def a lot less wet for the I-85 corridor out to 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: This run of the NAM looks like it's slower with the LP system as well. Def a lot less wet for the I-85 corridor out to 27. Burg, if the system is slower does that help the n/s turn it more negative or is that negligible at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, calculus1 said: I am trying really hard to rein in my excitement, but when Don Sutherland drops in and specifically mentions Hickory...wowza! It's about to get real... Thanks to all the great mets and enthusiasts who frequent our forum and who lend their expertise to others. I so enjoy reading your thoughtful comments and explanations to those of us not as skilled in the art but very much as interested it. You guys are the best! Here's hoping we reel this one in... Thanks for the kind words. I'm hoping that this forum gets to enjoy a really memorable event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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