mrdaddyman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, burrel2 said: Best I can tell the NMM and ARW have trended colder and more supressed initially. Anybody have some good 12z images? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, PackWxMan said: Wow - thanks Fish. You just explained EVERY snow storm in Raleigh. Which ensembles is he referring to? For those unfamiliar with Fish, he is typically the most conversative forecaster on earth All the ensembles I have seen show Wake getting a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, wake4est said: fv3 Kuchera Map through 60 That FV3 Kuchera map has been crazy consistent in showing a good snowfall for GSP. I wonder what it is seeing that others aren't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, beanskip said: 12z Ukie? UKMet. As far as temps go, it has the 850 0 deg back into central NC much of the storm it looks like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: Wow - thanks Fish. You just explained EVERY snow storm in Raleigh. Which ensembles is he referring to? For those unfamiliar with Fish, he is typically the most conversative forecaster on earth He LOVES the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The plumes are a big buzz kill - stay away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 UKMet total precip...the total precip moved a little northwest thru W NC on this last run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GEFS ticked back north slightly. Insignificant for most but makes a big difference for those on the southern edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, PackWxMan said: The plumes are a big buzz kill - stay away Noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, beanskip said: 12z Ukie? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Extreme NEGA Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 38 minutes ago, UpstateSCGamecock said: Andy Wood Former Met Fox Carolina . I talked to Andy and he has edited it for the onset of precip with the transition to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Quite the battle going on just now, a lobe of our big suppressing Canadian HP air mass and our SLP, looking impressive getting organised in the deep southwest. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-10-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Looks like the 12z runs have generally ticked north. Was hoping to see southward ticks continue. 1 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Noted Pretty sure plumes are only good to follow 6 hours or so out from experience in northeast storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 48 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said: I second this map. I’ll take it in a heartbeats I 3rd this map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Heights are a little lower on the Ukie with the 570dm deeper into the upstate and south of CLT this run compared to 42. It's only 20-25 miles maybe but every mile counts now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Heights are a little lower on the Ukie with the 570dm deeper into the upstate and south of CLT this run compared to 42. It's only 20-25 miles maybe but every mile counts now. Also kind of doubt the precipitation minimum showing up over NE NC on the Ukie, haven't seen that on many models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 39 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I love this, but there is no way that is going to be right. Oh how I wish, though. Problem is the temps at the surface are 33-35 for most of that...according to that it even MBY would be sleet/snow most of the storm though with temps just above freezing...so might be one of those times where we get a quick 2-4" of slop with the heavy rates before it lighten up and goes to cold rain...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, pbrown85 said: That FV3 Kuchera map has been crazy consistent in showing a good snowfall for GSP. I wonder what it is seeing that others aren't? I simply can't believe the consitancy of the FV3 over the past week, it hasn't waivered one bit. What a coup if the overall depictions (not clown map) verified. Still wish that western upstate minimum would go away and fill in with the heavier stuff but i guess it is what it is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I simply can't believe the consitancy of the FV3 over the past week, it hasn't waivered one bit. What a coup if the overall depictions (not clown map) verified. Still wish that western upstate minimum would go away and fill in with the heavier stuff but i guess it is what it is. FV3 doesnt show sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: Problem is the temps at the surface are 33-35 for most of that...according to that it even MBY would be sleet/snow most of the storm though with temps just above freezing...so might be one of those times where we get a quick 2-4" of slop with the heavy rates before it lighten up and goes to cold rain...... I would think that with the wedge and heavy snow falling, we'd hover around freezing or just below. But there's no way the column is going to be that cold. It will be really interesting if the Euro comes in similar. But I expect it will tick north, just like the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Euro through 39 is a little north with the precip thru GA and TN...temps look pretty much dead on in NC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Euro through 39 is a little north with the precip thru GA and TN...temps look pretty much dead on in NC HP looks good. Maybe a touch stronger for more CAD in a few frames? We'll see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 850s and surface are a tick colder especially in the western zones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: He LOVES the SREFs. Garbage. They are total garbage. I don’t get why anyone would use them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I'm more interested in short/medium range high-res models at this point than globals. I think RAH and other areas may cut down their totals for central NC, or at least keep them the same. I predict I'll be watching the coefficient correlation on my Radarscope app for the mixing line quite a bit... in southern Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: Garbage. They are total garbage. I don’t get why anyone would use them. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Crazy to see a mean like this. 10 plus inches for Raleigh westward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Are we allowed to post the WRF in here? Asking for a friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Well there's no shortage of precip on the Euro up thru NC and it has more precip to the NW like the UKMet....temps looks similar...it's bringing the 0 deg at 850 back well inland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now