PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, wake4est said: Like I KNOW the non-Kuchera fv3 clown maps are unrealistic but they are just astonishing. Like old-school DGEX snow outputs. They make my eyes happy. lets see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Andy Wood Former Met Fox Carolina . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 FV3 Loop 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I will say the 3k nam is not that far off from it, at least up this way. Never say never it’s nailed these things several times before. Yes, silly of me. Just feels like a carolina special to me. Not totally off the table however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, PackWxMan said: lets see it It's there on TT. Hasn't finished the run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, UpstateSCGamecock said: Andy Wood Former Met Fox Carolina . He must really be thinking that the cold is going to dive way down. I hope hes right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Anybody got the website link to the SREF plumes? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, lilj4425 said: Anybody got the website link to the SREF plumes? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: fv3 holds serve, pretty close to 06z Those are 44dbz over my house on that frame. Thats whiteout, 3-4 inch per hour rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 3m3 minutes ago As I am working on this storm, the one think I can say with pretty good confidence. If you live in Hickory/Asheville. This looks like your storm. 12-18 is probably a safe bet and maybe even a little conservative. Enjoy. #ncwx 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Yeah........ nah. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: fv3 holds serve, pretty close to 06z I sure hope this one has the best verification score! WOW. The unrealistic weenie in me loves this one, albeit, it seems to have been the most consistent model the entire process (so far)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Andy Wood Former Met Fox Carolina .Do u thk hes crazySent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, FallsLake said: That looks reasonable. I was here for that 2002 storm and it was horrible. We lost a car from a pine tree breaking in half, all of our fence line, and my wife watched as a tree was pulled over from its root ball because of the ice weight. **I like (a little) ice on the trees, but to an extent. Sorry this happened to you all. I am glad everyone was ok. Our Daughter (now 16 yrs old) was born 12 weeks early and had spent 8 weeks in the Neonatal intensive Care Unit. They released her from the Hospital the evening before go time of the storm. We were without power for 7 days. THANK GOD for Propane Gas Logs to heat our house. I begged for them to keep her there for a few more days and no dice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 hours ago, ajr said: WRAL snowfall map - seems bullish to me 3 hours ago, GreensboroWx said: Based on what I have seen with the overnight runs, I think it might be a bit conservative. I'd put 3 to 6 in the 1 to 3 and 6 to 10 in the 3 to 5 to be on the safe side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, griteater said: FV3 Loop I love this, but there is no way that is going to be right. Oh how I wish, though. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Panovich all in on the sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Rankin5150 said: Sorry this happened to you all. I am glad everyone was ok. Our Daughter (now 16 yrs old) was born 12 weeks early and had spent 8 weeks in the Neonatal intensive Care Unit. They released her from the Hospital the evening before go time of the storm. We were without power for 7 days. THANK GOD for Propane Gas Logs to heat our house. I begged for them to keep her there for a few more days and no dice. Rough time and it was doubly rough for you having a new born. Glad everything worked out; definitely a good weather story to link to her birth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, griteater said: FV3 Loop I wonder roughly how many hours do you think this model recognizes that we have primarily snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 My second call: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Best I can tell the NMM and ARW have trended colder and more supressed initially. Anybody have some good 12z images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, ozmaea said: Do u thk hes crazy Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk He could be on to something or he could be just generating a little hype on his fb page. He's not a Met around here anymore so he doesn't really have any real negative consequences if he is wrong, but on the off chance hes right people will think he is a winter weather genius. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Best I can tell the NMM and ARW have trended colder and more supressed initially. Anybody have some good 12z images?Nmm arw as re those new models never heard of themSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12z Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: My current DP is dead freezing... Right at 32 My current Dew point is @ 31F.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jkcraig Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Fish just tweeted: If you’re a snow lover in Wake County, you need to realize that there are many ways this system turns out to be a flop, and only a few ways for it to be a big snowstorm. This is precisely why we have taken the ensemble based probabilistic approach we have taken all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, jkcraig said: Fish just tweeted: If you’re a snow lover in Wake County, you need to realize that there are many ways this system turns out to be a flop, and only a few ways for it to be a big snowstorm. This is precisely why we have taken the ensemble based probabilistic approach we have taken all week. Now it’s confirmed Wake County getting snow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, jkcraig said: Fish just tweeted: If you’re a snow lover in Wake County, you need to realize that there are many ways this system turns out to be a flop, and only a few ways for it to be a big snowstorm. This is precisely why we have taken the ensemble based probabilistic approach we have taken all week. They would take the same approach no matter what. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 fv3 Kuchera Map through 60 EDIT: thru 66 add an inch to the totals 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, jkcraig said: Fish just tweeted: If you’re a snow lover in Wake County, you need to realize that there are many ways this system turns out to be a flop, and only a few ways for it to be a big snowstorm. This is precisely why we have taken the ensemble based probabilistic approach we have taken all week. Wow - thanks Fish. You just explained EVERY snow storm in Raleigh. Which ensembles is he referring to? For those unfamiliar with Fish, he is typically the most conversative forecaster on earth 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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