Met1985 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 30 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm. You should be in a prime spot for this one. Actually I think most of the mountains could get a foot plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 RGEM is just crushing WNC at the end of its run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Yeah, Not in that neck of the woods but find it strange for that one county sort out by itself to have a Watch. Almost have to believe the adjacent counties to its west would also come under WSW I agree it is strange, but I expect more counties to be added at some point. CAE is always more conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Most have been quiet here in Cherokee County GA about this - indicating just rain. But the FV3 seems to show accumulations in the area. And I just saw a forecast map from a poster (AshvilleWX) here with up to 2” What am I missing? Am I just being hopeful? . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just a friendly reminder that there is an actual observation thread. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Even for Bastardi this is pretty strong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: That good for us? Not 100% sure honestly...but the forward lean might lead to more cold getting out in front of the main rain. Which is why folks are already reporting certain conditions. The high is going to pull it down into the moisture. Also, vorticity has increased in the 500 level where the cold is coming from more than what was forecasted. The low will continue to push in...its' the cold air we all need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just checked cameras back at the house..wet snow is falling..wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, ryan1234 said: I agree it is strange, but I expect more counties to be added at some point. CAE is always more conservative. 621am Disco: Summary...Nearly all GFS and ECMWF ensemble members support periods of frozen precipitation in the north including Lancaster County. The threat timing is Saturday night into Monday evening. Snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible across northern Lancaster county. Therefore, a winter weather advisory has been issued for northern Lancaster county. Farther south in the central and south sections that include Columbia and Augusta there is less confidence of reaching advisory or warning criteria. The possible frozen precipitation timing for the central and south part is mainly Monday into Monday into early Tuesday morning predominately associated with the cold upper system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, burgertime said: This looks damn good. 12z RGM at 48 hours.....well before the storm is over. By the way I can't stress enough how SV is only $20 a month. Well worth the cost. It will be interested to see if that snow back in AR actually verifies. So far the system seems to a bit south of where forecasted and the ULL hasn't developed as strong yet which has caused many forecasts to bust in OK so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Hammer said: Most have been quiet here in Cherokee County GA about this - indicating just rain. But the FV3 seems to show accumulations in the area. And I just saw a forecast map from a poster (AshvilleWX) here with up to 2” What am I missing? Am I just being hopeful? . Pro I think they are expecting more of the 850 temps to cancel out. We are still a good bit away from the actual event so the model observations occurring can still play a major role. We just need to be mindful we are on the borderline and certain placements ahead of time to the north or south can shift something greatly in the longterm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, burgertime said: This looks damn good. 12z RGM at 48 hours.....well before the storm is over. By the way I can't stress enough how SV is only $20 a month. Well worth the cost. LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Amos83 said: It will be interested to see if that snow back in AR actually verifies. So far the system seems to a bit south of where forecasted and the ULL hasn't developed as strong yet which has caused many forecasts to bust in OK so far Very good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock? Have limited maps on SV so have no clue how it got there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Watching WRAL weather video I'm guessing the NWS is holding off on Vance/Franklin/Wake/Lee and perhaps Moore counties on deciding if to issue a WSW or just SA later today. Probably after all the 12z model suites are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The dew point analysis map is digging much deeper than the HRRR model is showing. The HRRR model showed the 35 line a bit further back into Georgia but the analysis shows it stretched all the way down into the panhandle. That is strong wedge IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I want to continue to see colder temps moving south on the FV3 I hope the trend south on the Operational models hasn’t stopped. Sorry VA, but the upstate S.C. doesn’t score as well as you do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock? 3 minutes ago, burgertime said: Have limited maps on SV so have no clue how it got there. 6z FV3 gave the LR area between 1-3" on the Kuchera... Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said: The dew point analysis map is digging much deeper than the HRRR model is showing. The HRRR model showed the 35 line a bit further back into Georgia but the analysis shows it stretched all the way down into the panhandle. That is strong wedge IMO. My current DP is dead freezing... Right at 32 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock? Looks like it, which is somewhat odd since Little Rock isn't under an advisory of any sort with only a chance of a little snow/sleet at the end according to NWS. I suspect that map is showing ZR/IP as snow, but even so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, superjames1992 said: Looks like it, which is somewhat odd since Little Rock isn't under an advisory of any sort with only a chance of a little snow/sleet at the end according to NWS. Maybe it's on crack? I have no clue since I just have accumulation maps. Very strange indeed but usually RGM is money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 RDU - 4inches / .25 FRZ Rain / dusting CLT - 1 inch / .25inch sleet GSO - 8inch / .15 FRZ rain count it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: My current DP is dead freezing... Right at 32 This was the 10z analysis so I definitely expect slight variations but that is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I’m sitting with a DP of 22 with sleet. I have a feeling I’m going to give a burger boom by the end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, mckinnonwg said: This was the 10z analysis so I definitely expect slight variations but that is solid. 7am this morning the DP was 35.. So it is slowly dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, burgertime said: Maybe it's on crack? I have no clue since I just have accumulation maps. Very strange indeed but usually RGM is money. Yeah, I agree the RGEM usually does a decent job. Regarding DPs, the DP is 36 this morning down here in the tropical panhandle of FL, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS out to 18 is a little bit colder. Good trends happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, PackWxMan said: RDU - 4inches / .25 FRZ Rain / dusting CLT - 1 inch / .25inch sleet GSO - 8inch / .15 FRZ rain count it Actually I would consider that a win. Bring it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Definitely colder 850's on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Actually I would consider that a win. Bring it! Just subtract out that .25 of freezing rain and I'd take it. Banking on more snow than that though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now