December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, localyokelweather said:

Hope you didn't read those totals as estimated amounts but more so the example of extending the range for the snow map. You're in a prime spot as well! 

Its gonna be interesting to see if the snow line falls at the balsams or is able to push back to the AT on the clay/macon line. 

If we can get the NE winds shown on the nam and the rates it might workout here. It could just as easily be a few inches of slop!

[Jet Stream Rider]

Delayed onset for Raleigh north and east. Happy for the SC upstate folks though, looks like early onset and quite a pasting.

[FallsLake]

Better run for the RDU folks. At hr 54 we're actually showing a little less snow (on the fantasy snow maps) then the 6z run, but more of what falls is snow. 

[Ontherocks]

9 minutes ago, Lookout said:

yep....850 mb low and thus winds are more easterly than southeasterly  in the upstate and north ga. it's very very close to snowing in much of ne ga by late in the day. The killer for north ga continues to be the warm nose the nam shows between 700mb and 850mb though but it's much cooler this run with it. Considering how heavy the precip is i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of mixing though now just about area wide. 

Also, the trend in the models here lately is to be a little further north with that finger of precip. That has possible cooling ramifications for ne ga too as the air is colder over the western carolinas so after wetbulbing that air advects into north ga. It does north ga no good to have it so far south as the models have been showing until recently. 

Overall a much better look if one is hoping to see something other than freezing rain or rain in ne ga and a better overall snowy look for the upstate.

 

Will the fact that the rain has already arrived in NGA have an effect? Keep our temps cooler? This precip seems earlier, as there was suppose to be some sun today.....looks like the NAM maybe showed this some

[NEGa]

41 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I honestly can't decide what it's going to do in the northern upstate. I think the most logical outcome is mostly cold rain, but there's definitely a chance we could get buried.  I'll remain cautiously optimistic, but expect 1 inch of sleet accumulation for my storm total.

If that lead finger of precip could be mostly snow for us, we could really rack up. It appears the mid-levels will be borderline cold enough for the finger... but surface temps are around 35-37. If the mid-levels are cold enough, i imagine we could cool the surface down to 32-33 with heavy rates inside the finger.

Regardless, the mountains on the NC/SC border are going to get obliterated, both by the lead finger and the main storm. I'm calling the jackpot for the storm as somewhere around rosman/brevard with a total of 20 inches.

 

 

 

 

 

its hard for here as well since its such a close call.  I am hoping the slightly south trends mean the CAD will be coming in a little stronger. However, historically for NE GA, at least, CAD events are ice ice baby.  Sometimes a front end thump of snow but usually ice (since I am apparently one of the "odd ones" who enjoys all winter wx a good ice storm doesn't really bother me).  my issue with a good glaze is more how heavy the precipitation is. if its too heavy and not into the 20s it might not really ice over all that much

[mackerel_sky]

Sleeting now at Casa de Mack

A little ahead of schedule!

[rduwx]

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Better run for the RDU folks. At hr 54 we're actually showing a little less snow (on the fantasy snow maps) then the 6z run, but more of what falls is snow. 

I haven't looked at all the profiles yet but still looks like a good bit of zr for the RDU area.  I'm still not sold on this being a big event for the RDU area.  I'm not trying to be negative, just what I see.

[Brick Tamland]

[Rankin5150]

6 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Go home NAM you're drunk. This run is bonkers...just bonkers. Backs up FV3 too...just insane. Guess my gut was right

 

I cannot wait to see the clown map for the NAM, just to compare to the FV-3

 

[eyewall]

The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.  

[Rankin5150]

5 minutes ago, burgertime said:

To John Wow's point if you look at hi-res precip type you can see now it's more of a rain/snow battle then flips to sleet for most. I still think this trends colder and you get snow creeping further south. Plus with so much moisture and again thickness right on the edge it should flip it to snow for the most part. 

I like where I am at in Belmont, NC

[SouthWake33]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Nice uptick for Wake County from 6z...would love to see the trend continue!

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, rduwx said:

I haven't looked at all the profiles yet but still looks like a good bit of zr for the RDU area.  I'm still not sold on this being a big event for the RDU area.  I'm not trying to be negative, just what I see.

We're going to be on the line for some type of transition. Hopefully that snow line stays south and east as long as it can. But agreeing with your point, we know our area well; I would think we get a good initial thumping of snow and then it goes to ice. **and then rain for some and then back to a little wintery precip before it ends. 

 

[Jet Stream Rider]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.  

Sure has and a good point. Note though there is no GoM or CAD in effect for that region like there will be in our area.

[Berlin1926]

From the talking heads on TV WX and the RAH NWS office, if you live east and south of Roxboro, it will be a cold rain.  They appear to be about as entrenched in their forecast as the models appear to be saying they are wrong.  It's like a battle of wills.  P.S.  Amazing posts from everyone here since starting earlier this week.  Looking forward to the post-storm forensics!

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

We're going to be on the line for some type of transition. Hopefully that snow line stays south and east as long as it can. But agreeing with your point, we know our area well; I would think we get a good initial thumping of snow and then it goes to ice. **and then rain for some and then back to a little wintery precip before it ends. 

 

I think we could get 6 to 8 of snow with some ice on top.

[Amos83]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.  

I think the bust is more due to the storm being further south if I was reading the disco out of Norman, OK correctly. I'd could be wrong though

[Cheeznado]

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

[rduwx]

Just now, FallsLake said:

We're going to be on the line for some type of transition. Hopefully that snow line stays south and east as long as it can. But agreeing with your point, we know our area well; I would think we get a good initial thumping of snow and then it goes to ice. **and then rain for some and then back to a little wintery precip before it ends. 

 

Yeah, I agree.  We'll need to cash in on all the snow we can get at the beginning. The 12z NAM is showing somewhere around .8 of zr for the RDU area.  I believe a lot of that will be plain rain or rain at 32 degrees which is like just a cold rain...LOL!

[Cheeznado]

Just now, Amos83 said:

I think the bust is more due to the storm being further south if I was reading the disco out of Norman, OK correctly. I'd could be wrong though

I think that is exactly what is happening.

[mackerel_sky]

3 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

I like where I am at in Belmont, NC

You’d be better off in Smyre!!

[mckinnonwg]

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.  

Busted as in not as much precip totals....more south, more north...etc.

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.  

 

That is more due to the ULL feature not developing as well.  I would not expect that to translate downstream assuming the surface low and WAA is decent

[burgertime]

For folks along I-85 GSP to CLT as usual it's gonna be a battle between sleet and snow but if we can get just enough cold air those totals could easily be higher. 

[Lookout]

1 minute ago, Ontherocks said:

Will the fact that the rain has already arrived in NGA have an effect? Keep our temps cooler? This precip seems earlier, as there was suppose to be some sun today.....looks like the NAM maybe showed this some

It will have an effect today...in fact it will be a lot colder....up to 15 degrees colder than all of them showed 2 days ago. Unfortunately it doesn't have much impact on whatever falls saturday. Sort of frustrating it can be 15 degrees colder the day before and not really matter lol

Just now, NEGa said:

its hard for here as well since its such a close call.  I am hoping the slightly south trends mean the CAD will be coming in a little stronger. However, historically for NE GA, at least, CAD events are ice ice baby.  Sometimes a front end thump of snow but usually ice (since I am apparently one of the "odd ones" who enjoys all winter wx a good ice storm doesn't really bother me).  my issue with a good glaze is more how heavy the precipitation is. if its too heavy and not into the 20s it might not really ice over all that much

You are in a much improved spot vs 24 hours ago. If the latest few runs of the fv3, euro, and nam are correct, you will get a lot more sleet/snow. You are right about the precip rates/freezing rain though...it's one reason why i haven't been too excited about it outside the higher elevations/your area and the rates/marginal temps would keep accretions down. That said, nam has 950mb temps dropping below freezing as early as late afternoon   tomorrow over your area so you should get quite a bit of wintery precip. 

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

I expect plenty of pictures from everyone that will be enjoying all the wintertime beauty    

[Poimen]

Models are coming around to the idea of moistening the column earlier, resulting in higher snow totals. Soundings from the NAM were terrific for Forsyth county. We're squarely in line for a 12"-15" in storm here. 

[Rankin5150]

Just now, Cheeznado said:

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

You will LOVE IT! I experienced 17" from the February, 2004 Storm and I talk about it to this day. It was so unreal to see it that deep. Brought the rabid weenie out in me. We even had thundersnow during the storm. AWESOME! 

 

[Local Yokel Wx]

13 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Its gonna be interesting to see if the snow line falls at the balsams or is able to push back to the AT on the clay/macon line. 

If we can get the NE winds shown on the nam and the rates it might workout here. It could just as easily be a few inches of slop!

If the cold can push up and over/around the Great Balsams/Southern Highlands Plateau it should be able to surpass the Cowee Mtns as well. I do fear the Great Balsams will be the dividing line. But hey, that's what makes this part of the state one of the toughest areas to forecast. 

[HurricaneTracker]

3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

Looking super promising at the moment.  12Z NAM soundings are surprisingly supportive of all snow (no mixing at all during the event).  So then snowfall will be determined by ratios and compaction.