burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GSP cashes in like crazy on this NAM run...gonna be a big BOOM there! Jesus. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I want to learn soundings fast. Best way to do that??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This is at hour 48 with more on the way. GSP in the heat of this has low enough 850's and thickness is good enough to keep it all snow until someone digs through the sounding data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, pbrown85 said: If you get 2" of sleet in Simpsonville I'll be happy with my 4" of snow in Easley! And I’ll be happy with my 8” near Paris Mtn. State Park! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: This is at hour 48 with more on the way. GSP in the heat of this has low enough 850's and thickness is good enough to keep it all snow until someone digs through the sounding data. I see you got my message! This is awesome! Hope it keeps trending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 If NAM verifies this would be a once in a lifetime storm whether it be ice or snow. There is a TON of QPF with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, burgertime said: If NAM verifies this would be a once in a lifetime storm whether it be ice or snow. There is a TON of QPF with this. NAM has caved to the FV3 and its allies. Flatter, weaker southern wave. Less WAA, less GOM convection moisture robbing thus no dry slot. Good stuff. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, beanskip said: Wow -- huge surge south of 850 temps vs. 6z run -- about 50 miles south at 30 hours. yep....850 mb low and thus winds are more easterly than southeasterly in the upstate and north ga. it's very very close to snowing in much of ne ga by late in the day. The killer for north ga continues to be the warm nose the nam shows between 700mb and 850mb though but it's much cooler this run with it. Considering how heavy the precip is i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of mixing though now just about area wide. Also, the trend in the models here lately is to be a little further north with that finger of precip. That has possible cooling ramifications for ne ga too as the air is colder over the western carolinas so after wetbulbing that air advects into north ga. It does north ga no good to have it so far south as the models have been showing until recently. Overall a much better look if one is hoping to see something other than freezing rain or rain in ne ga and a better overall snowy look for the upstate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NAM drops 15 inches of cement paste on the northern upstate from walhalla to easley to greenville to spartanburg. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, burgertime said: If NAM verifies this would be a once in a lifetime storm whether it be ice or snow. There is a TON of QPF with this. If I'm not mistaken the NAM is pretty close to what the GFS FV3 has been showing for a few days now correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: I'm confident highlands will be good. Gonna be a big score or heartbreaker here. Yea, the Southern Highlands Plateau is a safe bet for us. Franklin is a tough call with Bryson a close second. Our final map comes out later this morning but I think we'll push a larger than usual snow total range (instead of the usual 1 - 2", go with 1 - 4" for example) to show the uncertainty as it relates to distance between totals, location and elevation. A fun storm to track no doubt and I'm curious to see what Lake Toxaway reports when its all said and done. Have a safe and fun time bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 That ZR line exploded southward at 48... Down into northern Orangeburg County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 @51 .75 QPF falls across much of WNC/CNC and upstate all snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Finally at hr 48 it's snow at RDU! The line for snow/ice/rain down towards Fayetteville and up towards Rock Mount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 good stuff as the 3k nam caved as well and has the snow line well south of its 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The dry air is just eating away at the northern tip of the moisture for VA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wow said: NAM has caved to the FV3 and its allies. Flatter, weaker southern wave. Less WAA, less GOM convection moisture robbing thus no dry slot. Good stuff. If the FV3 got this right, the totals will be huge. It has been very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Here’s my most recent forecast map. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This is going to be a heck of a NAM run. This puts nearly all the models into consensus, right? Is there still an outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, localyokelweather said: Yea, the Southern Highlands Plateau is a safe bet for us. Franklin is a tough call with Bryson a close second. Our final map comes out later this morning but I think we'll push a larger than usual snow total range (instead of the usual 1 - 2", go with 1 - 4" for example) to show the uncertainty as it relates to distance between totals, location and elevation. A fun storm to track no doubt and I'm curious to see what Lake Toxaway reports when its all said and done. Have a safe and fun time bud! From Highlands to Hendersonville are going to get lambasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Go home NAM you're drunk. This run is bonkers...just bonkers. Backs up FV3 too...just insane. Guess my gut was right 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Hvward said: Here’s my most recent forecast map. I hope you are right. Just dont see how we get 6-12" near Danville with all this dry air eating at the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 upstate to clt back to all snow at 51 with the lp just offshore sc. mercy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 looks like nws GSP was right to go against ishomue with the NAM's thermal profile... lol Too early to claim victory though, it could easily go the other way as the event unfolds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Is it my eyes or is the 12z NAM exiting the low a bit quicker? Not as much suppression and time for heavy accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, RTPGiants said: This is going to be a heck of a NAM run. This puts nearly all the models into consensus, right? Is there still an outlier? Yes, except colder. At least for the upstate folks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: From Highlands to Hendersonville are going to get lambasted. Hope you didn't read those totals as estimated amounts but more so the example of extending the range for the snow map. You're in a prime spot as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Also, long range HRRR is coming into play and showing A LOT OF RAIN. How is the performance of this outside the 18 hour window? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: upstate to clt back to all snow at 51 with the lp just offshore sc. mercy. 1 To Wow's point if you look at hi-res precip type you can see now it's more of a rain/snow battle then flips to sleet for most. I still think this trends colder and you get snow creeping further south. Plus with so much moisture and again thickness right on the edge it should flip it to snow for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, localyokelweather said: Hope you didn't read those totals as estimated amounts but more so the example of extending the range for the snow map. You're in a prime spot as well! My comment was a general response to the discussion not a counter to any specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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