StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: All the snow maps at www.weathernerds.org are supposed to use the Kuchera method. It's a cool site that I didn't know about until earlier this week. Here is the 6Z FV 3 and the 0Z Canadian. Those both appear to be maps from yesterday, unless I am reading something wrong ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: The model runs continue to look fantastic. Great to see them stay consistent or get even better the closer we get. I have been very impressed with the FV3. I know it has had data issues, but the consistency and the range were impressive. If it continues with this streak and does end up verifying, well-spent govt money IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, beanskip said: Would love to see the Kuchera map. Also — is there a public site for those? www.weatherners.org is the site I've been using for these Kuchera maps. Below is the 6Z FV 3 and the 0Z Canadian for comparison sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said: I found out about the site last week as well. Not as user-friendly as some of the larger sites but for a stand-alone site, it does pretty dang well. Love how you can plot specific points and I prefer some of their contour maps over others. yeah...it's a great site. By the way...I goofed on that original post. Those are the wrong images. So I deleted and made a new post with the correct images. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, mckinnonwg said: I have been very impressed with the FV3. I know it has had data issues, but the consistency and the range were impressive. If it continues with this streak and does end up verifying, well-spent govt money IMO. I agree. However, the proof is how it compares to reality. It is either going to look great and rival the Euro for future storms or be viewed as a joke that was nothing more than a consistent joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Returns streaking out way ahead of the developing low in Texas. FoothillsNC use to harp on this with the large El Nino storms, wouldn't be surprised to see that streak continue and whoever can cash in on it tomorrow could be were the jackpot is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said: Those both appear to be maps from yesterday, unless I am reading something wrong ? you are correct. I just deleted it and started over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Nraleigh said: I agree. However, the proof is how it compares to reality. It is either going to look great and rival the Euro for future storms or be viewed as a joke that was nothing more than a consistent joke. This storm is a major test for that exact reason. Personally, hope it verifies. Maybe some of the extra money we spend on the EURO can be back in our pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 WYFF is buying into the southern trend. They've upped their snowfall totals for the upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Can you be specific about WYFF? Currently in TN but heading back to southern upstate today. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 26 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I think we see WWA for central/eastern counties later today. I don't see Wake going under WSW RAH is currently saying 2-4 inches possible during Sunday in my point and click forecast for N Wake. Since I believe that is warning criteria, a WSW is probably certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: RAH is currently saying 2-4 inches possible during Sunday in my point and click forecast for N Wake. Since I believe that is warning criteria, a WSW is probably certain. i think it'll go up the closer we get to the event. radar already looking extremely healthy. that plus the model trends overnight i don't see how they don't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 All the models trended warmer last night- TARHEELPROGRAMMER 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Anybody have soundings across NC from the 6z Euro? Precip looks perfect for much of the state if all snow. I wonder how much is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, ryan1234 said: What I find a bit interesting and it most likely will have nothing to do with our area, is how the WSW's and WWA's have shifted quite a bit south in TX and OK. Before OKC was expecting 4-8 inches, that has gone down and that line of heavier snow has shifted to the south. Cranky weather guy from twitter mentioned this in his blog yesterday saying that the storm was late to bloom but not late to track. Basically that what was happening out west wouldn’t translate directly to the east coast and in fact he said there might be an inverse reaction where things are wetter over here than expected. But things went south over there not because of more suppression or the low forming way south, but simply because cyclogenesis was later than initially modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 WRAL snowfall map - seems bullish to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, ajr said: WRAL snowfall map - seems bullish to me https://i.imgur.com/7f2QjDw_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium Based on what I have seen with the overnight runs, I think it might be a bit conservative. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, GreensboroWx said: Based on what I have seen with the overnight runs, I think it might be a bit conservative. Yes. They said about an hour ago they felt they needed to up the totals and may need to keep adjusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, GreensboroWx said: Based on what I have seen with the overnight runs, I think it might be a bit conservative. I’ll feel better about this if the NAM keeps improving.. the sting of Jan 2017 is still there. I can’t think of a storm where cold overperfromed models in the RDU area.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, ajr said: I’ll feel better about this if the NAM keeps improving.. the sting of Jan 2017 is still there. I can’t think of a storm where cold overperfromed models in the RDU area.. January 2000? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Despite the N trend from early yesterday, the GEFS popped back and is even further south prior to that trend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, ajr said: WRAL snowfall map - seems bullish to me WTVD for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, CentralNC said: January 2000? You probably know better than I do but I thought that was more of a QPF overperform vs temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Wow said: Despite the N trend from early yesterday, the GEFS popped back and is even further south prior to that trend Looks eerily like the 6z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Guys, perhaps you all could help me out. I’m trying to understand I’m in the upstate S.C. area. Pivotal has a crippling freezing rain event on its NAM ICE accumulation algorithm. When I checked the NAM 850 across most if not all the area it’s above freezing. I even checked the 2m temps and it was above freezing. It still had a ice storm. I didn’t bother checking the upper levels after seeing both levels above freezing. Please help me understand what am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wow said: Despite the N trend from early yesterday, the GEFS popped back and is even further south prior to that trend Gut tells me the 12z suite is gonna get back to glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, CADEffect said: Guys, perhaps you all could help me out. I’m trying to understand I’m in the upstate S.C. area. Pivotal has a crippling freezing rain event on its NAM ICE accumulation algorithm. When I checked the NAM 850 across most if not all the area it’s above freezing. I even checked the 2m temps and it was above freezing. It still had a ice storm. I didn’t bother checking the upper levels after seeing both levels above freezing. Please help me understand what am I missing? Have you viewed the soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CADEffect Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, mckinnonwg said: Have you viewed the soundings? No sir, I have not. Would it be different then what the overall model predicts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Wow said: Despite the N trend from early yesterday, the GEFS popped back and is even further south prior to that trend If this trend continues my area going to be in 7 or lower zone. :| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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