griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said: Yes^ Thanks Grit. The Euro at 96 looks weird, just drops the low back south and east and the temps, why is there no 850 crash across the Carolinas as the low departs ots? Edit - it may just be the 24 hour intervals throwing me off. 3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Chris Justus mentioned this in his live video earlier that he was not buying the temps on the backside of the storm on the Euro. Said he didn't understand why the temps weren't crashing with the flip to a North wind and the ULL feature moving in too. Yeah, I don't think it makes any sense regarding how it's not good and cold on the backside as the low departs....I do agree more with the Euro compared to the FV3 regarding how the Euro scours the mid level cold and brings the warmth well inland. It looks like the UKMet agrees per UNCC's map (thanks for those) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Grit, Correct me if I am wrong, but we are on the cusp of a DOOZY of a storm for our areas, if this verifies. I mean...this is a long duration with more snow than mixing. Correct? I also notice the other Models starting to move in the direction of the FV3-GFS. No? Thank you for putting this together. Looks awesome! Prior to the 00z runs I said 1-3 of snow/sleet/slop for Charlotte, then up to 1 inch with the backside snow showers on Monday. I would now change that to 3-6 of snow changing to sleet, then up to an inch of snow on Monday. This precip should come in fast and furious Saturday evening and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Euro Run Snowfall Totals for tonight's 00Z Run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, 5statewx said: Probably because the airmass behind it really isn't all that different. What cold air does it have to tap into? I agree with your comment that our airmass is marginal, but just a note that your map here is for Tuesday aftn, well after the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, griteater said: Prior to the 00z runs I said 1-3 of snow/sleet/slop for Charlotte, then up to 1 inch with the backside snow showers on Monday. I would now change that to 3-6 of snow changing to sleet, then up to an inch of snow on Monday. This precip should come in fast and furious Saturday evening and overnight. Awesome! Is there still the chance that we get hit with a major front end thump and it keeps the layers colder than progged, which would limit mixing? I wonder what the odds would be? I would say 7 times out of 10 (this may be conservative) the CAD in winter storms has been forecasted too warm by the models. Is that a fair statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Awesome! Is there still the chance that we get hit with a major front end thump and it keeps the layers colder than progged, which would limit mixing? I wonder what the odds would be? I would say 7 times out of 10 (this may be conservative) the CAD in winter storms has been forecasted too warm by the models. Is that a fair statement? Yeah, they can be modeled too warm with CAD, but that's at the surface. The warmth is going to pour in aloft out of the SE and East. Tough forecast. The FV3 solution of holding the cold via strong ascent (strong rising motion is a cooling mechanism thru the column) isn't out of the question, but I don't think it's right. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Pretty bad bad when the Euro gives you 13” but you know there’s 0% chance of that coming to fruition. Euro tries to set the snow/slop/rain transition line further south than history says it will be in Greenville county. What do you think Grit? I mean maybe I’m splitting hairs but it’s arguably the best global model right here close to game time and that transition line is the difference between 6+” and a mainly IP/zr event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Yeah, they can be modeled too warm with CAD, but that's at the surface. The warmth is going to pour in aloft out of the SE and East. Tough forecast. The FV3 solution of holding the cold via strong ascent (strong rising motion is a cooling mechanism thru the column) isn't out of the question, but I don't think it's right. Time will tell BINGO!!! This is what I was looking for. I could not put the words together on what I was thinking. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, WarmNose said: Pretty bad bad when the Euro gives you 13” but you know there’s 0% chance of that coming to fruition. Euro tries to set the snow/slop/rain transition line further south than history says it will be in Greenville county. What do you think Grit? I think I've slept less this week than any in my life, and I need a new strategy, that's what I think. Such a tough area there to forecast. I'd go 2-4 inches of snow/sleet. Precip should be on the heavy side and lead to cooling thru the column, but hard to be aggressive with totals in that region as well as here given the temps. Good luck! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Enjoy the snow and Ice. There will be a lot of nowcasting with this storm. The potential is still there for what we use to call a, "Dixie Blizzard." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 45 minutes ago, griteater said: I think I've slept less this week than any in my life, and I need a new strategy, that's what I think. Such a tough area there to forecast. I'd go 2-4 inches of snow/sleet. Precip should be on the heavy side and lead to cooling thru the column, but hard to be aggressive with totals in that region as well as here given the temps. Good luck! Yea just got to see the maps from the 00z runs. This was my first worry was that it's still early December. Anyone south and east of 40 always gets the warm nose. I still feel like the models are kind of doing weird things. Also this will be the storm that trends warm than somehow over delivers just to make even more people confused here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Nam looks pretty much the same so far at 36hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Colder on the NAM @42 for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Should see snow breaking out along I-85 and parts of 74 by 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This run is colder...not gonna be cold enough for people but this run of the NAM is pressing that cold Canadian air down a little more. We need to watch this trend. @45 I-40 north is the 0c line. On the 00z it was along the VA border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, burgertime said: Should see snow breaking out along I-85 and parts of 74 by 00z Sunday. Keep delivering for us insomniacs ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, CLTwx said: Keep delivering for us insomniacs ..... 4hrs of sleep after an epic Christmas party...I'm barely making it haha. Also this run looks better to me. If that arctic air can keep pressing and this becomes a trend there will be some fun clown maps again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 @48 most of NC has just cold enough temps at 850....could be a sleet fest or snow it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Not as good @51 because the high slides out....again though looks better to our north to my eyes for the general setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 @54 NC is getting hammered with.....something? Looks like a massive sleet fest in Concord with heavy snow in GSO. Looks a lot better this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Better CAD signature showing up on this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I-40 WNC special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This is gonna be a good run. By 60 CLT gets in on the heavy snow action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 327 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY... .Low pressure will track from the southwest U.S., to the Gulf Coast states through Saturday while cold high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. This low will then move off the southeast coast Sunday into Monday. With the colder air in place, a prolonged period of mostly snow is expected, starting as early as Saturday night, and lasting into Monday. Some mix of sleet may occur across southeast sections as well. Based on the forecast track, the heaviest snow is expected to occur across northwest North Carolina into southern Virginia. NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ015-071630- /O.UPG.KRNK.WS.A.0005.181209T0000Z-181210T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KRNK.WS.W.0007.181209T0000Z-181210T1600Z/ Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Grayson- Including the cities of West Jefferson, Sparta, Dobson, Boone, Wilkesboro, Yadkinville, Independence, Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney 327 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches expected, with locally higher amounts possible near the Blue Ridge. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Virginia and north central and northwest North Carolina. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Power outages may also occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, burgertime said: @54 NC is getting hammered with.....something? Looks like a massive sleet fest in Concord with heavy snow in GSO. Looks a lot better this run. NAM seems to handle the CAD better. I-40 north and west is going to get hammered. Charlotte, Lexington, have those generators at the ready.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Any snowfall maps?? In caldwell county so ive been worried about the cad and waa. But it looks promising on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Hi-res NAM has WNC all snow during the heart of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Actually looking at P-type CLT gets 2 inches QPF of sleet. Areas around GSP get massive ZR and GSO cashes in outside of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 AM Friday: Confidence is high enough on significant snow/wintry precip in the heart of the expected cold air damming, that after collaboration with WFO RNK, portions of the watch have been upgraded to a winter storm warning. The rest of the watch will be left as is, as there is still some time to fine tune details. Overall, no big surprises in the 00z guidance. If anything, they`ve trended a little wetter. Adequate QPF for winter storm warning criteria accums is not an issue. The two biggest concerns are the evolution of a warm nose above the CAD, and the sfc-based warm layer around the periphery of the wedge. These will determine the p-type thru the event. I opted to take a 50/50 blend of the GFS/NAM profiles. The NAM has the much stronger warm nose, bringing it even into the central NC mountains for a time on Sunday. So precip should start expanding north and east across the forecast area during the day on Saturday. Thermal profiles suggest most of the precip will start out as rain, except in the central and northern mountains and adjacent foothills in NC. By early Saturday evening, CAD should be really strengthening across the Piedmont, as precip rates will be at their highest and the ~1036 mb parent high reaches PA. The wedge looks to advect enough cold/dry air to wet-bulb temps down into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the entire Piedmont by daybreak Sunday. This will be about the time the warm nose will punch in from the east, resulting in a wintry mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain. Meanwhile, most of the I-40 corridor looks to remain all snow. The sfc low will track from the FL panhandle east to off the Georgia coast by Sunday aftn. The NAM has a dry air punching in from the southwest, which could cut off ice nuclei activation and turn snow/sleet to freezing rain/drizzle. However, the GFS/ECMWF/CMC all seem to keep deeper moisture within a developing deformation zone thru Sunday night. For now, I keep ice nuclei active thru the event. This allows snow totals to continue to pile up. Finally, Sunday night thru Monday, as the sfc low deepens off the Carolina coast, cold air spills in behind the circulation and should erode the warm nose aloft. Thermal profiles turn into ra/sn, with some snow possible across even in the southern Upstate. However, precip rates should be very light by this point. Temps will hover mainly in the 28-35 deg range Sunday thru Sunday night, then rebound slightly on the back side of the system on Monday to the upper 30s to lower 40s. We have expanded the watch to include the GA and SC mountains, along with a tier of zones from Pickens to York County in SC, where climatologically in CAD events should get higher wintry accums. While the rest of the GA and SC Piedmont is still too low confidence for a watch, but may need an advisory once the event is within 24 hours. Given the upward trend in QPF. Impacts from the combination of what is expected to be a very wet snow, and icing in some areas, look to be significant. Very windy conditions are expected Saturday night and most of Sunday, which makes falling trees and power lines likely. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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