December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[JoshM]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

FV3 is a thing of beauty and has been for multiple model runs now. It as well has gone more toward the miller b scenario. Has the primary die in northern AL with secondary off SC coast and then go N/NE from there.

Here's a clown map to cheer us up from the other GFS and the Canadian mess.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

FV3 is a thing of beauty and has been for multiple model runs now. It as well has gone more toward the miller b scenario. Has the primary die in northern AL with secondary off SC coast and then go N/NE from there.

I'd like to see that low 100 miles to the south and the high 100 miles SW at about 1038 or 1040.

[ILMRoss]

I'm not really sweating this model suite too much, although I also have the luxury of being in the S WV mountains and I'll probably be good for at least a safe 3-6 under most scenarios. To the folks that say "The GFS looks kind of weird", you're right. The main change on the GFS wasn't our actual shortwave, but instead the placement of a strong arctic trough at 500mb in the NE. Look at the trend I posted- the 00z GFS backs this feature further SW by a solid 500 miles! This messes with everything- Not only does is completely shift areas of ascent and descent, and warp our high pressure, but it also acts to sweep out our low pressure very quickly- that's why the GFS is faster. Other runs and other models feature a slow, lumbering southern wave traveling unfettered from Cali to the east coast. Things get quicker when it gets caught up with whatever this trough is making an appearance.

[WarmNose]

LP trended a tick stronger for tonight’s 00z runs. Not what we want. FV3 worked out for a lot of us but it wasn’t pretty. See if Euro follows suit

[griteater]

Said I wasn't going to stay up, yet here I am.  Here's the CMC ENS Mean.  More Miller A-ish than its Op run

[Waiting on snow]

9 minutes ago, griteater said:

Said I wasn't going to stay up, yet here I am.  Here's the CMC ENS Mean.  More Miller A-ish than its Op run

Yep ensembles at this range. I know that as well as any. But hard not to get worried over op runs that trend wrong because we all know we don't get the type of storm that was modeled in these parts. We just sit back and wait for the wheels to fall off with each model run.

[TellicoWx]

To me the 500 and surface don't look bad, it's at the 850 level. There is a vort that is trending further north pulling waa with it. 

[griteater]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

To me the 500 and surface don't look bad, it's at the 850 level. There is a vort that is trending further north pulling waa with it. 

Yeah, ideally for the non-VA group, everything would be a farther south....the southern wave, the sfc baroclinic zone, etc....that would place the 850mb low and its associated warming farther south

[griteater]

Euro out to 123 looks fine so far.  No sign to me that this is going to be amped and north.

[griteater]

The wave is about 3 hrs slower this run.  The southern wave looks nice and clean, no secondary wave hitting California behind it...it's broad, has the southern slider look to it with the confluent flow firm over the NE

[griteater]

It's a southern slider.  At 156, low is over N FL / S GA.  Snowing in central and western NC into SC upstate

[griteater]

Sfc low is just off the SC coast at 162.  Snow in W NC, mix in west-central NC into northern upstate.  Sfc low is over Wilmington at 168...so this favors W NC up into W and central VA for snow

[griteater]

Northern stream energy is diving in and phasing late....big snow totals in N NC Mtns into SW VA

[griteater]

Euro Clown Map

[griteater]

It ended up being a southern slider thru the gulf, then it had a pretty big phase with a closed contour over W NC...and it turned up the coast and off the mid-atl coast

[Bango]

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro Clown Map

Is that cm or inches? 

[HKY1894]

.

[griteater]

1 minute ago, Bango said:

Is that cm or inches? 

Inches.  The Euro has an area in NW NC into SW VA of 3-4 inches liquid equivalent, lol.  2-2.5 liq eqiv in south central NC

[HKY1894]

Inches.  The Euro has an area in NW NC into SW VA of 3-4 inches liquid equivalent, lol.  2-2.5 liq eqiv in south central NC

I’m near lenoir wish I could lock this run in. So much timing with northern stream phase though nino climo heavily favors my area though so I’m confident in at least some form of wintry precip on front end at least

 

 

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[griteater]

With the northern stream now getting into the fray and diving down into the trough on the UKMet, Euro. FV3, there are going to be all kinds of wild runs this week.

[WiseWeather]

9 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

I’m near lenoir wish I could lock this run in. So much timing with northern stream phase though nino climo heavily favors my area though so I’m confident in at least some form of wintry precip on front end at least

 

 

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Im sitting here with you in Lenoir! Hoping for a monster weekend!

[HKY1894]

With the northern stream now getting into the fray and diving down into the trough on the UKMet, Euro. FV3, there are going to be all kinds of wild runs this week.

Yes I find it interesting that FV3 along with Euro and ukmet all have phase on 00z runs. Euro and ukmet have always been more reliable imo vs old gfs, this storm will be interesting test of new gfs. Honestly feel like euro and FV3 weren’t all that different at 0z. Somebody’s gonna get a massive snowstorm if this solution is close. Maybe mid Atlantic though


.

[JoshM]

5 minutes ago, bess said:

Im sitting here with you in Lenoir! Hoping for a monster weekend!

[ForsythWx]

What 

[HKY1894]

Yeah only if it were 24hrs out. Would be one of the all time greats here


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[WiseWeather]

2 minutes ago, JoshM said:

This guy ftw. Thats a beaut.

[Boonelight]

1 hour ago, ForsythWx said:

What 

Oh man. That’s 28” to 32” at my house. Being this far out, it will most definitely change in the next few days. I’d realistically expect more like 6-10” or so, and wouldn’t be surprised if it were less than that.

I can’t believe I’m actually saying that! Having lived in the midlands of SC for 20 years makes you really jaded about snow chances.

[yoda]

Here's the Day 7 precip and SLP position for the 00z UKIE for you guys:

[BIG FROSTY]

I’m all in on this run! If could get half of what is shown it would be a monster storm!!! Of coarse we know it want be anything near this. Lol


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Rankin5150]

Here is an update from NWS-GSP:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 AM Monday: Threat for significant winter weather next
weekend continues, especially for the NC mtns and adjacent piedmont
and points north. However, confidence is very low on the exact
details. The 00Z EC was preferred for the extended given its better
consistency and it falls between the faster and warmer operational
GFS and the slower and colder GFS ensemble members. Thursday into
Friday will be the quiet before the storm. Zonal flow aloft will
prevail during this time with surface high pressure weakening and
shifting southeast of the FA Friday. A northern stream disturbance
passing to the Thursday night north may bring some clouds to the
mountains with an outside shot at a few snow showers. Otherwise
expect increasing clouds by late in the day Friday ahead of a
surface low pressure system developing along the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico. Temperatures will warm some into Friday but will likely
remain below normal.

The surface low is currently expected to track near the northern
Gulf Coast Friday into Saturday before crossing FL and arriving
somewhere near the Southeast coast Sunday. the timing and location
of the low would support continued increasing clouds with
precipitation starting sometime Saturday, possibly late in the day.
Most guidance shows a 1030mb+ sfc high pressure system building into
the Mid Atlantic states Friday night into Saturday just ahead of the
storm system. This supports much colder air filtering into the region
by Saturday with highs expected to only be around 40, setting the
stage for the potentially significant winter storm. Saturday night
into Sunday currently look like the period for the most significant
precipitation with a strong southerly low level jet pumping moisture
into the region above the cold dome of high pressure wedging down
east of the mtns. Much uncertainty exists with the eventual
precipitation type across the region. At this time it appears that
the biggest ice/snow issues would be on the front end of the storm
system. Although, if the fairly strong sfc high pressure system gets
locked into the Mid-Atlantic states on some models suggest, then
significant snow and ice will be possible, especially across NC.
Although at least light snow and especially ice accumulations are
possible even across southern portions of the FA as well. The
forecast will likely change multiple times this week, but now is the
time to begin putting a winter weather plan together for this
potential significant winter storm.