mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: All of you better take a lot of pics I’m sure you already know what rain looks like, but will do! 1 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Steady as she goes 00z December 7 18z November 29 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Pretty sure the FV3 just put down 2 feet somewhere across the southern piedmont. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 All the models except the NAM/SREF are good for RDU, or good enough. If NAM holds for 06z and 12z, I'll cave to the NAM. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 NWS really outdid themselves with this map: what in the actual H*** 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilpappas75 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 It seems as though all the models are starting to follow suite with the original FV3 model, which has not changed much since it first came out. The NAM and CMC are starting to fill in just like the FV3. Even the original GFS is starting to follow. Storm track lower, High pressure stronger=incredible situation. Now if we can avoid the CAD from killing the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Preferably the low would be a little more suppressed, but still a very nice and rather rare setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said: NWS really outdid themselves with this map: what in the actual H*** Bad time for "take your child to work day" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 0z FV3 looks more suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilpappas75 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said: 0z FV3 looks more suppressed What site are you using? I cannot load the FV3 at either site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 UKMet Precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, neilpappas75 said: What site are you using? I cannot load the FV3 at either site. TT since Pivotal updates slower... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: 0z FV3 looks more suppressed It is a bit early, but later in the run the low gets far enough north and just off the southern NC coast that the warm nose turns everything in the coastal plain and the eastern Piedmont to cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilpappas75 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: TT since Pivotal updates slower... TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1005 south of Hatteras. In the areas that stay frozen that would be a good bit of snow and sleet already down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I’m not liking the shift south for us folks in NW NC and S Va. if the Euro shifts south imma gonna be very concerned! Until then I’ll hug the CMC . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GEFS mean snowfall came south again, and put slightly higher totals in western NC around Asheville and surrounding areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I’m not liking the shift south for us folks in NW NC and S Va. if the Euro shifts south imma gonna be very concerned! Until then I’ll hug the CMC . Eh, I think we'll like the outcome of the FV3 actually. It has a very long duration event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, SnowDawg said: GEFS mean snowfall came south again, and put slightly higher totals in western NC around Asheville and surrounding areas. Do you happen to have a map on the totals? I know they are fantasy, but I want to see these #'s and compare to Wow's post earlier, where he took a compilation of all of the runs. Heck...it is nice to dream a little dream anyways. LOL. Thank you in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS ensemble is hundreds of miles south. Hundreds. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Jonathan said: GFS ensemble is hundreds of miles south. Hundreds. Huh?? Lucy got some splainin' to do. Image? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I’m not liking the shift south for us folks in NW NC and S Va. if the Euro shifts south imma gonna be very concerned! Until then I’ll hug the CMC . We are still in good shape easily 8-12 maybe towards 14 inches. Even with the bump south. :) Brad P even said areas in the Foothills and Mountains could see local 20 inch amounts :P 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, wxduncan said: We are still in good shape easily 8-12 maybe towards 14 inches. Even with the bump south. Brad P even said areas in the Foothills and Mountains could see local 20 inch amounts You are a good bit SW of me, much closer to the moisture! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said: You are a good bit SW of me, much closer to the moisture! My bad for some reason I thought you was down in Rutherford county below me. Edit: Still think we are both fine unless something drastic happens in our 48 hour less window before go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 FV3 snow map is unbelievable especially the consistency over this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, HKY1894 said: FV3 snow map is unbelievable especially the consistency over this week . Picture of this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Burger showing up for a PBP tonight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Picture of this map? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: I’m not liking the shift south for us folks in NW NC and S Va. if the Euro shifts south imma gonna be very concerned! Until then I’ll hug the CMC There's the post we've been looking for. Nice! Straight up, I love where you are located with this one (as usual). Precip is going to be farther north than currently shown IMO even if the track is the same...and you have better ratios there...just wait it out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said: Do you happen to have a map on the totals? I know they are fantasy, but I want to see these #'s and compare to Wow's post earlier, where he took a compilation of all of the runs. Heck...it is nice to dream a little dream anyways. LOL. Thank you in advance. I'm viewing on WxBell so I'm not sure about the rules on me sharing that but I will say for your location your mean is probably around a foot maybe a little more on that run. Compare that to the last run where it was probably 9 or so and then even better if you consider how far north the 12z run went when that areas mean dropped all the way to around 5-6. So a pretty substatial trend south over the last 2 GEFS runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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