Brick Tamland Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Ok good deal. Why do you think there won’t be much warming aloft? I just don't. Why do you think it will be? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS looks north at 36 see if it adjusts here. Edit: Looks similar at 42 now LP wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Ok good deal. Why do you think there won’t be much warming aloft? He lives in Wake Forest vs SE Wake County, with the advances in computer simulations over the past 5-10 years, local hasn't changed. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Precip shield a bit further south thru 42 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Lol. GFS coming in further south and the high, while not as far east, is stronger, for whatever that ultimately ends up being worth. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS definitely shifted south.. at 60 hrs.. r/s line down to state line 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Lemonade Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Wow wasnt expecting this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I just don't. Why do you think it will be? He wrote a dissertation after the Jan 17 "incident". Someone re-posted it yesterday. If I knew how, I would re-post it again. It should be required reading before one can post on here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Disco Lemonade said: Wow wasnt expecting this I’ll bet he was! Looks good right there. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Wow said: GFS definitely shifted south.. at 60 hrs.. r/s line down to state line Yup and 850 into SC as well. Quite a bit cooler so far. Big for areas like me on the edge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wow said: Precip shield a bit further south thru 42 It's a little colder and south...h5 heights along the east coast were south thru the run...amazing how that has continued 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Ok good deal. Why do you think there won’t be much warming aloft? Best or safe way for areas to luck up on the fringes is to root for the early thump. You can see column cool from top down at the beging as precip breaks out on most model runs if you watch real close. See 850/0 line push south.So if you can saturate and get a good burst , itll sustain itself and delay the changeover. If you get a virga storm then the opportunity will be lost and its straight to ice when things rev up and heat up above with SE winds, warm nose. So you want deny the warmnose but if you can delay it a few hours, then all want be lost and maybe at the end get a quick burst of an inch to whiten things back up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Stop yammering, people 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 0z GFS basically just shifting every feature (cold air/precip/low pressure center) south throughout the run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Best or safe way for areas to luck up on the fringes is to root for the early thump. You can see column cool from top down at the beging as precip breaks out on most model runs if you watch real close. See 850/0 line push south.So if you can saturate and get a good burst , itll sustain itself and delay the changeover. If you get a virga storm then the opportunity will be lost and its straight to ice when things rev up and heat up above with SE winds, warm nose. So you want deny the warmnose but ifbyou can delay it a few hours, then all want be lost and maybe at the end get a quick burst of an inch to whiten things back up. Yep, good post. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Good front end snow thump for CLT to RDU on the GFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, beanskip said: 0z GFS basically just shifting every feature (cold air/precip/low pressure center) south throughout the run. Do you believe it Bean? I cannot believe how much it made the northern precip vanish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS out too 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 .5 moisture makes it to VA state line thats it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Wow that is a huge shift south on the 0z GFS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Very strange run. Almost like somebody jostled the map of the US and everything got shifted south. Temps looked good until the end when 850s pooped out at 72 hours. I don’t know — odd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: .5 moisture makes it to VA state line thats it Just now, BornAgain13 said: Wow that is a huge shift south on the 0z GFS... I don’t believe the gfs for one second, unless everything starts doing this. Not wishcasting but the low is really not that far off from the same time frame on the 18z panel. Obv I worry about dry air intrusion from the HP up to our north and have worried about it all week but I just don’t see it being a final solution. Crazier things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: He wrote a dissertation after the Jan 17 "incident". Someone re-posted it yesterday. If I knew how, I would re-post it again. It should be required reading before one can post on here. I posted it, it’s below as well. Difference being then the models showed us getting hammered and they whiffed. Even showing big totals day of the storm. Not the same as this storm as there’s ALOT of time left. Point being when I posted it for people to remember where we live and how imperfect these models are. They can whiff the other way as well and us get more snow than they show, it’s just not as common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The GFS and the NAM couldn't look more different. Strange for being so close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Good backside snow showers flying on the GFS through the day Monday in E TN, N GA, W Carolinas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 RGEM has the high at 1038 this run at hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mckinnonwg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Possible take on the suppression south: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I don’t believe the gfs for one second, unless everything starts doing this. Not wishcasting but the low is really not that far off from the same time frame on the 18z panel. Obv I worry about dry air intrusion from the HP up to our north and have worried about it all week but I just don’t see it being a final solution. Crazier things have happened. Look at heading of the wave more east ots as oppossed to NE trying to turn,bend. Wasnt their an oldtimer rule a wave enetering west coast always exited same longitude east coast most times. Beleive this one came in San Diego/ LA area 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Canadian looks more like nam. Precip shield is more expansive on the northern side. I’d love to post images but my dumb a** forgot my password for American Wx site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 UKMet at 72 isn't close to the Carolina coast with the sfc low....can't see 24 and 48 yet, which I know is weird 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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