Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12Z sounding for the Triad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Sleet storm south of I 40 at 60 from AVL to Statesville. After 4-8 of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Big blow up of snow accums just north of the Triangle. We're over to ZR by late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 And just like that it's a sleet sounding by 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Some serious gulf convection robbing the system on that 57hr look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Poimen said: 12Z sounding for the Triad: How is that a SN & IP best guess, unless I forgot to read Skew-T's that's SN, likely heavy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 i've never seen such variation for RDU on accumulation maps as i have with this storm..I've seen anywhere from a trace to 9 inches lol. Being a met that covers wake co in the winter has be the hardest thing in the world 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Wow the NAM absolutely ravages southern VA on this run. The clown maps are going to be ridiculous. I’m getting the laptop fired up so I can post images tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Big blow up of snow accums just north of the Triangle. We're over to ZR by late morning. It's a better look though. Was afraid the trend was going to be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, CaryWx said: Some serious gulf convection robbing the system on that 57hr look If it can happen, it will happen. That's what's going to kill our snow chances as we lose the heavy precip to keep things cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This is a great run for my neck of the woods over to Boone. Maybe the nam is overamping things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, WeatherNC said: How is that a SN & IP best guess, unless I forgot to read Skew-T's that's SN, likely heavy. Beat me to it. And you read them a lot more than I do. But I cant see sleet in that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Sub freezing dewpoints creeped a touch south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Some serious gulf convection robbing the system on that 57hr look I was wondering when that was going to show up!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: This is a great run for my neck of the woods over to Boone. Maybe the nam is overamping things? Big time run for Southern & SW VA. Looks like it stays snow the entire time, with the sleet line just to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: This is a great run for my neck of the woods over to Boone. Maybe the nam is overamping things? The nam has a mind if it’s own. No amp in it at all until now. I don’t think it’s amping tho as some alluded to it’s simply expanding the qpf shield like most thought it would as it got closer to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: How is that a SN & IP best guess, unless I forgot to read Skew-T's that's SN, likely heavy. Because you don't have complete saturation in the dendric growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Still not a great run for Wake. I could realistically see parts of Wake county get blanked on this. I don't see anything proving otherwise based on soundings and model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 High placement looked much improved, especially over that ghastly 12z run. Not perfect but 2 small steps in the right direction since that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Some serious gulf convection robbing the system on that 57hr look The convection oriented as it is will actually increases the moisture out ahead of the storm. Dry air is the reason for the lack of qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Freezing rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, JoshM said: NAM Clown Map thru hr 81 Can we stop posting these TT maps? They include sleet and ZR and are basically worthless in this scenario. We aren't getting 18" of snow in Wake. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 If the NAM can saturate the column by 6Z, it will make a world of difference in the snow totals. It took a good step in that direction tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 .70 is no bueno for Wake on zr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Can we stop posting these TT maps? They include sleet and ZR and are basically worthless in this scenario. We aren't getting 18" of snow in Wake. Deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Been saying it all week. This is an ice storm. Not a snow storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Still not a great run for Wake. I could realistically see parts of Wake county get blanked on this. I don't see anything proving otherwise based on soundings and model data. ...you’ve somehow missed the Euro, FV3 GFS, The Canadian, The ICON and the UKMET? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: If the NAM can saturate the column by 6Z, it will make a world of difference in the snow totals. It took a good step in that direction tonight. Yes that is the positive take away but we need a couple more trending runs though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Does anyone have the 18z UKMET Snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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