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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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15 minutes ago, Poimen said:

FWIW, and it may be totally unrelated, but it's interesting that it appears as if the NAM totally busted on the high side out in Oklahoma. Just brutal for some of those areas. Maybe it will bust here equally bad on the low side. ;)

 ASK YOURSELVES THIS QUESTION: If the deck was flipped and the Nam was showing what all the Globals and ensembles where showing currently. Meaning they all where putting out end result of just ice/rain mainly because of out of sync HP/LP configuration, but the Nam was painting 12-20 inches in a large area. Would you be discarding the Nam and going with consensus?

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8 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

So, I am curious about something. I've always noticed on some of our bigger storms that places like OK and AR seem to get snow as well. Sometimes extending to TN. Is what happens with their snowfall amounts worth noting and getting an idea for what we will receive? Like overperformance or snowfall farther south? 

It can be helpful to look upstream and see how a system is performing in relation to the modeling. I don't know how much it matters in this case, though. 

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

 ASK YOURSELVES THIS QUESTION: If the deck was flipped and the Nam was showing what all the Globals and ensembles where showing currently. Meaning they all where putting out end result of just ice/rain mainly because of out of sync HP/LP configuration, but the Nam was painting 12-20 inches in a large area. Would you be discarding the Nam and going with consensus?

Yes, I'd throw out the NAM if the roles were reversed because long range NAM.

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

 ASK YOURSELVES THIS QUESTION: If the deck was flipped and the Nam was showing what all the Globals and ensembles where showing currently. Meaning they all where putting out end result of just ice/rain mainly because of out of sync HP/LP configuration, but the Nam was painting 12-20 inches in a large area. Would you be discarding the Nam and going with consensus?

Yes!

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Yeah...If the precip can start earlier like the GFS, then that will up the snow totals considerably. Right now that might end up being the biggest hurdle. How long does it take to moisten the atmosphere? The GFS starts the precip a full six hours before the NAM and that 6 hours is all snow. 

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Just now, beanskip said:

18z GFS a bit warmer and further north as the low is on approach, but the CAD does its thing as the storm kick into gear and it actually ends up colder both aloft and at the surface for I-85 folks. 

MUCH better GFS run. Colder aloft for sure. 540 dipping into N NC. Was in C VA last run. 

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Just now, beanskip said:

18z GFS a bit warmer and further north as the low is on approach, but the CAD does its thing as the storm kick into gear and it actually ends up colder both aloft and at the surface for I-85 folks. 

To be expected with this type of setup. Classic southern snowstorm with the battle lines drawn 15-30 miles on either side of I85.

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What are they looking at? Euro, UK, FV3, CMC all show a foot and a half here. 

They pulled the trigger, the gun fired, and it scared them so they put the gun back in the holster until they know they have to shoot again. To be honest none of their maps have looked right to me for the storm they have basically had Charlotte getting more snow than some of the mountain areas
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