NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, Poimen said: FWIW, and it may be totally unrelated, but it's interesting that it appears as if the NAM totally busted on the high side out in Oklahoma. Just brutal for some of those areas. Maybe it will bust here equally bad on the low side. ASK YOURSELVES THIS QUESTION: If the deck was flipped and the Nam was showing what all the Globals and ensembles where showing currently. Meaning they all where putting out end result of just ice/rain mainly because of out of sync HP/LP configuration, but the Nam was painting 12-20 inches in a large area. Would you be discarding the Nam and going with consensus? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: yikes, at 45 the snow line looks even farther north 1034 hp at hr 30. I believe it was in the 1040 range a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, ryan1234 said: So, I am curious about something. I've always noticed on some of our bigger storms that places like OK and AR seem to get snow as well. Sometimes extending to TN. Is what happens with their snowfall amounts worth noting and getting an idea for what we will receive? Like overperformance or snowfall farther south? It can be helpful to look upstream and see how a system is performing in relation to the modeling. I don't know how much it matters in this case, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Is there an ice accumulation map from GSP for the upstate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, NCSNOW said: ASK YOURSELVES THIS QUESTION: If the deck was flipped and the Nam was showing what all the Globals and ensembles where showing currently. Meaning they all where putting out end result of just ice/rain mainly because of out of sync HP/LP configuration, but the Nam was painting 12-20 inches in a large area. Would you be discarding the Nam and going with consensus? Yes, I'd throw out the NAM if the roles were reversed because long range NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 yesterdays runs had snow in western nc at 18z sat, now showing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18z GFS through 48 -- low a little faster, CAD a whisker weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: ASK YOURSELVES THIS QUESTION: If the deck was flipped and the Nam was showing what all the Globals and ensembles where showing currently. Meaning they all where putting out end result of just ice/rain mainly because of out of sync HP/LP configuration, but the Nam was painting 12-20 inches in a large area. Would you be discarding the Nam and going with consensus? Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 RAH is highlighting everything that can go wrong from the warm nose to convective robbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Out of all the maps I’ve seen this week. This is the biggest weenie clown map so far. Like come on WRAL - what is this garbage?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 wow RAH call map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I want buy the Old GFS or Nam with regards to anything unless I see support from Euro suite and or Ukie. Rule of thumb. For the record when i see Can and that new FV3 siding with Ukie and Euro, eps. I know which way to swing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 15 minutes ago, Poimen said: That looks like a southern va, northern NC crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 QPF looks better on 18z gfs, One positive trend on both NAM and old GFS at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 It's all green because the sfc temps are just above freezing. The mid levels are all below. That's a good sign. In fact, 850 temps are colder at 54 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GFS is looking juicer to me this run compared to 12Z. Snow breaking out mountains and foothills at midnight Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GFS 69: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Wow said: It's all green because the sfc temps are just above freezing. The mid levels are all below. That's a good sign. In fact, 850 temps are colder at 54 Well, that’s depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 could the multiple areas of high pressure that is now being model( which i believe is what people refer to banana high) be giving the models trouble right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 and the high end map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 18z GFS a bit warmer and further north as the low is on approach, but the CAD does its thing as the storm kick into gear and it actually ends up colder both aloft and at the surface for I-85 folks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Yeah...If the precip can start earlier like the GFS, then that will up the snow totals considerably. Right now that might end up being the biggest hurdle. How long does it take to moisten the atmosphere? The GFS starts the precip a full six hours before the NAM and that 6 hours is all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 A lot of people will like this GFS run. Especially I40 North crowd. But it is much better than 12Z and is more closely aligned to other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, beanskip said: 18z GFS a bit warmer and further north as the low is on approach, but the CAD does its thing as the storm kick into gear and it actually ends up colder both aloft and at the surface for I-85 folks. MUCH better GFS run. Colder aloft for sure. 540 dipping into N NC. Was in C VA last run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, beanskip said: 18z GFS a bit warmer and further north as the low is on approach, but the CAD does its thing as the storm kick into gear and it actually ends up colder both aloft and at the surface for I-85 folks. To be expected with this type of setup. Classic southern snowstorm with the battle lines drawn 15-30 miles on either side of I85. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 And the 18z GFS is the gift that keeps giving. Whereas the 18z NAM was all done for CLT to GSP corridor at 0z Monday, the GFS slows things down and 850s crash -- still wintry. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 GFS Kuchera map is 12-16" in the Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Bang (not to take away from Burger) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 What are they looking at? Euro, UK, FV3, CMC all show a foot and a half here. They pulled the trigger, the gun fired, and it scared them so they put the gun back in the holster until they know they have to shoot again. To be honest none of their maps have looked right to me for the storm they have basically had Charlotte getting more snow than some of the mountain areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Look at this on the NAM 12k 18z Looks like the precip changed uniformly for everywhere all at once, not just our storm. That's wonky. Like it's whole resolution changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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