December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[eyewall]

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Is there such thing as a cold rain or sleet blizzard?

Nope, snow only with vis below 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours in frequent wind gusts of 35 mph or higher. 

[Snow dog]

12 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Put my initial map out this am.

I think you are being too generous to us upstate folks. Hope you are right though...

[sarcean]

15 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Put my initial map out this am.

Think you might be under estimating the Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem). I wouldn't group it in the same as Raleigh.

 

But we will see!

[Ethan80963]

1 minute ago, Snow dog said:

I think you are being too generous to us upstate folks. Hope you are right though...

He probably not too far off for the northern upstate.

[SLAMSTORM22]

Will there be any issues with wind around Charlotte or surrounding suburbs north or south? Haven't seen much talk about wind 

[mackerel_sky]

2 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

I think you are being too generous to us upstate folks. Hope you are right though...

Nice map! 

I can see Caesars head getting 12” easily! TR gets 4-6+”

[BullCityWx]

1 minute ago, SLAMSTORM22 said:

Will there be any issues with wind around Charlotte or surrounding suburbs north or south? Haven't seen much talk about wind 

I think it depends on how much snow or freezing rain. If it's either of those, you could see limbs breaking. Not so much with sleet. 

[WarmNose]

1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Nice map! 

I can see Caesars head getting 12” easily! TR gets 4-6+”

How much for golden strip? Will we get 6-12 like Brick?

[mackerel_sky]

1 minute ago, WarmNose said:

How much for golden strip? Will we get 6-12 like Brick?

If you wish it, it’ll happen, I promise! 

[sarcean]

Wonder if we will see a Blizzard warning at some point for the mountains of NC if those winds hold true

[SnowDawg]

Well this is GSP's hourly forecast for Charlotte so, if there is snow and ice on trees, then yes I'd be somewhat concerned with gusty winds.

W

[Shane]

6 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Think you might be under estimating the Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem). I wouldn't group it in the same as Raleigh.

 

But we will see!

Agree on Greensboro. They tend to get a similar to the SVA Counties to their north. Greensboro is 500' higher than Raleigh after the plain ends around Hillsborough. I would place my boundaries around that elevation change

[SnowDawg]

2 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Wonder if we will see a Blizzard warning at some point for the mountains of NC if those winds hold true

I think they are definitely going to have to consider it because the Euro definitely shows 35 plus for much more than 3 hours.

[ozmaea]

How much for golden strip? Will we get 6-12 like Brick?

Simpsonville?

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[BullCityWx]

3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

Do you see CLT staying frozen throughout the whole storm, honestly I think it might happen.

Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
 

It depends where in CLT. Ballantyne? No. Shuffletown or Mountain island? better shot. 

[WarmNose]

3 minutes ago, ozmaea said:

Simpsonville?

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yeah

[WarmNose]

Ive seen these storms set up shot with a raging sleet storm between Mauldin and Greenwood. North side of 276 in Mauldin usually sitting right on that snow transition line. All goods north from there 

[jjwxman]

18 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Think you might be under estimating the Triad (Greensboro/Winston Salem). I wouldn't group it in the same as Raleigh.

 

But we will see!

Stokes County 2-4  and Surry County gets 12-24.  Now that would be one crazy cut off! 

[Poimen]

Does anyone care about the SREF plumes at this range? GSO snow mean is 8.3" and qpf is 1.56"

[tarheelwx]

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

Does anyone care about the SREF plumes at this range? GSO snow mean is 8.3" and qpf is 1.56"

That tells me a lot of that isn’t falling as snow. 

TW

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I am saying the totals they are showing rarely happen here. But it seems that is what most people are basing everything on in discounting the models. And if you have that attitude about what the models show, even when the majority of them have been showing the same thing the past two days, then I don't even get the point of looking at them. 

I agree.

IMO, based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, its forecast evolution, and the very good run-to-run continuity of the guidance, one should have above average confidence in the modeled snows. While some changes from the current guidance are likely, those changes should be smaller than is typically the case. One isn't dealing with a storm in which there's a significant probability that it could track much farther north and west than what is currently shown. One also isn't dealing with a storm where there is such great uncertainty about the thermal profile or a marginal air mass where things could rapidly "fall apart" so to speak. This is likely to be a special storm for the Lower Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. It could be a memorable one for parts of the region.

[wncsnow]

Anyone looked at the Euro for later next week, heavy rain, possible t storms with a strong upper low and then wraparound snow for mtns.. could be flooding issues in areas especially in locations with over 6 inches of snow

[CentralNC]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, its forecast evolution, and the very good run-to-run continuity of the guidance, one should have above average confidence in the modeled snows. While some changes from the current guidance are likely, those changes should be smaller than is typically the case. One isn't dealing with a storm in which there's a significant probability that it could track much farther north and west than what is currently shown. One also isn't dealing with a storm where there is such great uncertainty about the thermal profile or a marginal air mass where things could rapidly "fall apart" so to speak. This is likely to be a special storm for the Lower Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. It could be a memorable one for parts of the region.

thanks Don!  you da man!

[ryan1234]

15 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

It depends where in CLT. Ballantyne? No. Shuffletown or Mountain island? better shot. 

If there is ZR or IP all the way down to the NE ATL burbs, then there is no reason why Charlotte couldn't say all frozen.

[Poimen]

3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

That tells me a lot of that isn’t falling as snow. 

TW

yeah...the ARW cores had a mean snowfall of 11.63" though. 

[sarcean]

3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Does anyone care about the SREF plumes at this range? GSO snow mean is 8.3" and qpf is 1.56"

Near Boone (KTNB) is 17.4" with a QPF of 1.91"

[HKY1894]

EPS and Euro is locked in boys and girls very similar eps QPF and snowfall mean compared to 00z actually 12z increased slightly


.

[greendave]

19 minutes ago, Shane said:

Agree on Greensboro. They tend to get a similar to the SVA Counties to their north. Greensboro is 500' higher than Raleigh after the plain ends around Hillsborough. I would place my boundaries around that elevation change

Agree 100%. I live in Burlington and I've seen the transition line setup so many times quite literally in a line from just south of Graham and over towards Mebane and Efland more times than not. And to the point of not grouping us with RDU. Yesterday I left RDU for home and witnessed a 7degree temp drop and arrived to snow/graupel flurries.

[WxKnurd]

HKY mean for SREF plumes was right at 12”, CLT was touch over 4”.  Both had a total QPF a touch a few hundredths over 2”.  But the sref burned us last year even up to go time, plus it’s at the long-range time period of this short range model.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

What time does the 18z NAM run again?

It started running.