December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[Snow haven]

no one knows what to expect, some models point me at all rain, some with T-1" and then others with 3-4" total snow accumulations. Then there are those facebook post that put out makes that say major accumulation possible in my area. Im just gonna go with the all rain event and be happy that way I don't get my hopes up.

[Rainforrest]

10 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Can anyone spot the escarpment?

Yep

[SnowDawg]

Much better run with the mid level temps than last nights Euro, which I thought looked weird with how they were handled then, especially with the lack of cold in the ULL feature.

[Cold Rain]

Just now, Cold Rain said:

The Euro did for some areas, but as you can see from the data over the course of the last 12 hours, generally, we're seeing things like weaker highs, slightly north or closer to the coast low pressures, slightly less of a cold air pus, and of course, the snow maps are starting to respond by showing less snow and/or migrating slightly north and west.  Not really any better trends today for the south and east edges.

And by the way, this is completely typical for winter weather around here.  North and west zones are favored and should do pretty well.  I believe we've seen peak snowfall maps for this one.  For south and eastern areas, we need to see big time suppression 5 days out.  We go through this every winter.

[audioguy3107]

Fairly surprised at the FFC graphic....haven't really chimed in on this storm since it looked to leave us totally out of the game, at least Atlanta proper around the perimeter.  The new EURO continues support for freezing rain in the typical CAD areas from Gwinnett/Hall county and points north and east.  I'd still like to see what the NAM says by tomorrow afternoon for our area, that should give us a better idea of what the potential is, but if we get a stout NE wind per usual, we usually get down to 31/32 around here.  If by some chance the CAD encroaches earlier for the bulk of the precipitation, then NE Georgia up through GSP is going to be in for one serious ice storm.

[wncsnow]

The simulated radar progressions and locations of the snow/mix/rain on the 12Z euro really matches well with climo

[FallsLake]

8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Ha they're going to beef it up after models come in with a warmer solution.  Still looks to be impactful west of the Triangle, though.

Hey CR, Look at how the 850 temps are trying to move back SW from Canada.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018120612&fh=96

Click 4x back for "Prev. Run"

A few move movements back and we have a much better cold air feed. 

[neilpappas75]

1 hour ago, CADEffect said:

I’m really getting concerned with Iceing issues across Upstate SC. Just curious to know if NAM is a trend or not.  

Honestly NAM is the one model that will consistently account more for the CAD then any other. And I think these warmer models are for that simple fact. It is trying to account for CAD, but it does not know the exact time and how quickly it will set up. If it's too early, it will dry out the air beyond belief. If it's too late, then it wastes moisture and lets the warm air override. Also tricky where and how strong it is. By looking at the models, I don't think there is any way to forecast certain areas as of yet. 

[Brick Tamland]

Euro, UK, and CMC all look good. Not sure why people are saying they are showing less snow. Looks pretty consistent to me. It seems folks just don't want to believe the models because what they are showing is rare here. 

[neilpappas75]

But we need to all get along children. Some of us are just more skeptical because we have been there, and done that. Gotten disappointed too many times. Others still have that child like hope. We are all here for the same reasons, obviously.

[Orangeburgwx]

What time does the 18z NAM run again?

[neilpappas75]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro, UK, and CMC all look good. Not sure why people are saying they are showing less snow. Looks pretty consistent to me. It seems folks just don't want to believe the models because what they are showing is rare here. 

I agree. I have seen some fine tuning, but overall, consistent. 

[Cold Rain]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Euro, UK, and CMC all look good. Not sure why people are saying they are showing less snow. Looks pretty consistent to me. It seems folks just don't want to believe the models because what they are showing is rare here. 

What??  It's not rare at all for the models to show 6 inches of snow in Raleigh.

[Bevo]

9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

And by the way, this is completely typical for winter weather around here.  North and west zones are favored and should do pretty well.  I believe we've seen peak snowfall maps for this one.  For south and eastern areas, we need to see big time suppression 5 days out.  We go through this every winter.

Imma need one of those sweet Cold Rain maps for clarification please...

[Cold Rain]

5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Hey CR, Look at how the 850 temps are trying to move back SW from Canada.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018120612&fh=96

Click 4x back for "Prev. Run"

A few move movements back and we have a much better cold air feed. 

Nice!  Hopefully, that can work itself out before I throw in the towel!

[eyewall]

For triangle folks I am going with a T-1" for Raleigh and 2-5" for Durham. 

[Cold Rain]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Imma need one of those sweet Cold Rain maps for clarification please...

I threw this down yesterday.  Still looks good to me.

[FallsLake]

Just now, eyewall said:

For triangle folks I am going with a T-1" for Raleigh and 2-5" for Durham. 

Think we'll have any issues with ice? NAM at face values would say we have a decent ice event. 

[ryan1234]

10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Hey CR, Look at how the 850 temps are trying to move back SW from Canada.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018120612&fh=96

Click 4x back for "Prev. Run"

A few move movements back and we have a much better cold air feed. 

This just proves that the models still don't have a complete grasp on how much cold air will be available and how strong the CAD will be. Do I think Charlotte, Raleigh, or even the Triad will see close to 2 feet of snow? No, I don't. Though the Triad stands a slightly better chance. But it also doesn't mean that some of these big totals won't come to fruition even for CLT, RAH, and even GSP. Heck, NE suburbs of Atlanta may end up ZR and maybe some backside snow. There is still soo much time left to go and so many more model runs to go through. So stay within close proximity to the "cliff" but it's way too soon to be standing with one foot off or jump. 

[eyewall]

Just now, FallsLake said:

Think we'll have any issues with ice? NAM at face values would say we have a decent ice event. 

Yeah I would say we very well might and most certainly a sleet fest for a bit. Sleet is around 4:1 ratio for accums.

[mrdaddyman]

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I threw this down yesterday.  Still looks good to me.

I think you're being generous for our area.

[Brick Tamland]

5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

What??  It's not rare at all for the models to show 6 inches of snow in Raleigh.

I am saying the totals they are showing rarely happen here. But it seems that is what most people are basing everything on in discounting the models. And if you have that attitude about what the models show, even when the majority of them have been showing the same thing the past two days, then I don't even get the point of looking at them. 

[NCSNOW]

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I threw this down yesterday.  Still looks good to me.

So you think Greensboro only gets 1 to 2 inches. Interesting

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, mrdaddyman said:

I think you're being generous for our area.

He's talking about car tops not the ground.

[Hvward]

Put my initial map out this am.

[Cold Rain]

4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

So you think Greensboro only gets 1 to 2 inches. Interesting

They're right on the 2-4" line.  I can make that work.

[neilpappas75]

The FV3 started with Rock Hill at 28", then it moved to 20, then 17. But it also has had NE Ga going up on totals a little at a time. Telling me the CAD they are thinking is setting up a little sooner, and will be fierce. That is good for some, bad for others. CMC has a broader range of snow then it did Wednesday, but a slightly smaller one then earlier. But the depth is greater. The 12z NAM doesn't seem to be quite as broad, but now they are starting to have 12 plus inches into Greenville and Spartanburg Counties. But that is falling, not how much on ground of course.

[griteater]

25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

And by the way, this is completely typical for winter weather around here.  North and west zones are favored and should do pretty well.  I believe we've seen peak snowfall maps for this one.  For south and eastern areas, we need to see big time suppression 5 days out.  We go through this every winter.

It’ll be back in January with colder air, and blocking - take it to the dam bank

[SnowDawg]

Crazy wind gusts on that last run through North GA and Western NC Mountains 30-40 with occasionally 50+. Definitely looking at near blizzard conditions in a lot of areas if that comes to fruition.

[mackerel_sky]

Is there such thing as a cold rain or sleet blizzard?