December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[Iceagewhereartthou]

1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneked down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84

I think you're spot on. I've noticed the trend today is for models showing a weaker high, 1032-1035 (vs yesterday 1036-1040) and it being too far west, over WI, instead of Pen. Either the low is too fast or the high is too slow but it's getting left behind.

[NCSNOW]

2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Think the NAM will correct course or is this the trend?

Think it has hp screwed up because it has the ns sampled poorly. Want know for 24 more hrs

[Buddy1987]

FV3 and Canadian are much closer to the coastline of SC and look to be in good agreement with placement there. 

[frazdaddy]

20 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

I just posted this to the mountains thread, he's going to Asheville for this one.

He will be at the Grove Park inn

[burrel2]

comparing hours 60 to 72 of precip panels with last nights ukmet and the 12z. The precip shield is definitely more suppressed, the high pressure is a good bit farther to the east, and the low pressure is a little slower. All good trends it appears.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

comparing hours 60 to 72 of precip panels with last nights ukmet and the 12z. The precip shield is definitely more suppressed, the high pressure is a good bit farther to the east, and the low pressure is a little slower. All good trends it appears.

Yup. Two camps setting up here. Ukmet and Euro vs FV3, to an extent GFS and the Canadian. Suppressed vs more north 

[Poimen]

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Noticed that no one posted the UKMET.. anyone have some snow maps?

Here's the best I can do: 

[strongwxnc]

Here's the best I can do: 

Nice!


.

[CADEffect]

I’m really getting concerned with Iceing issues across Upstate SC. Just curious to know if NAM is a trend or not.  

[lilj4425]

From GSP:

[mrdaddyman]

16 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Noticed that no one posted the UKMET.. anyone have some snow maps?

[Brick Tamland]

So, really it's one NAM run that was bad, one GFS run that wasn't quite as good versus the UK, FV3, and Canadian that still look great today. 

[BullCityWx]

Just now, burrel2 said:

comparing hours 60 to 72 of precip panels with last nights ukmet and the 12z. The precip shield is definitely more suppressed, the high pressure is a good bit farther to the east, and the low pressure is a little slower. All good trends it appears.

I think we’re good here. A foot or more of snow falls over a large area before the assumed changeover happens.

[SnowDawg]

19 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Been saying this since 6z nam and repeated it 12z nam. Nam has center of hp in wisconsin and retrogrades it west as lp approaches. Cant get cold funneled down cad areas properly cause of its location. Think it is having long range hiccup with this feature and causing its outputs at hr 84

I agree. The NAM is definitely better at identifying the intensity of a CAD than the globals, but with its setup at the end of its runs as far as its concerned there’s not much of one there because of the placement of the bigger synoptic pieces. At this lead time the globals likely have a better handle on the placement of things, the NAM would just be better at translating that look to the surface at a higher resolution. Assuming the globals have the big picture right, it’s hard to give much credence to the recent runs on the NAM.

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

Ukmet looks like it expanded the precip a little further north for southern VA peeps this run. 

[FallsLake]

5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

From GSP:

I disagree with the last one. We are aware of the forecast but we still go into Denial. 

[beanskip]

Submitted without comment.

[HKY1894]

Submitted without comment.

The FV3 is night and day with QPF vs op gfs. Feel like this will be a good test. This year has trended more QPF in our bigger rain events during the fall so it fits the pattern


.

[mstr4j]

4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

I agree. The NAM is definitely better at identifying the intensity of a CAD than the globals, but with its setup at the end of its runs as far as its concerned there’s not much of one there because of the placement of the bigger synoptic pieces. At this lead time the globals likely have a better handle on the placement of things, the NAM would just be better at translating that look to the surface at a higher resolution. Assuming the globals have the big picture right, it’s hard to give much credence to the recent runs on the NAM.

This was the basis of my question earlier that I wasn't sure if someone answered it.  It is of better hope that the global models pick up much better with the HP placement and strength while the NAM does better with the thermal profiling of the CAD once the HP is set in place?   

Also someone mentioned earlier that I wasn't sure if it had been answered.  Is the fact the NAM is much closer to the event over the southern plains region should we use that model trend as a better gauge for what's going to happen in our neck of the woods.  Or since it's a CAD event, the NAM's trending projections of the southern plains isn't as neccessary to what happens in the South East?  Any input is appreciated, thanks!

[Poimen]

As others have stated, this will be a big test for the FV 3. 

[FallsLake]

I believe the FV3 just gave me my highest fantasy snow totals for this event. I had another run a few days back that gave me 20"; this gives me 24".

Now if I can just get 8" I'll be real happy... 

[Cornsnow]

Just now, Poimen said:

As others have stated, this will be a big test for the FV 3. 

I find that really hard to believe. Maybe take a 3rd or 4th of that and it might verify outside of the mountains, IMO.

[SnowDawg]

Definitely a reduction area wide on the GEFS.

[mwp1023]

Just now, SnowDawg said:

Definitely a reduction area wide on the GEFS.

Maybe NAM is on to something...

[BullCityWx]

FV3 seems to really want to make US 74 the cut off, as per usual

[SnowDawg]

Just now, mwp1023 said:

Maybe NAM is on to something...

Looks like its more because of a drop in qpf than anything else, and we know typically the nothern portion of the precip shield is more expansive than modeled.

[pbrown85]

Does anyone have any theories as to why the GFS FV3 gives so much more with it's winter output than the other models so far?

[Suncat]

The problem with the FV3 totals is that the model is including sleet, and possibly freezing rain, in its totals.  You're safer to take half of the total number and assume that will be the highest potential amount of snow.  Then, you won't be overly disappointed.

[Cornsnow]

Just now, Queencitywx said:

FV3 seems to really want to make US 74 the cut off, as per usual

I really feel like this will be our typical storm. Models waffling but the players are in place. Outside of the mountains it depends on the placement of the high and the strength of the CAD. The R/S line will set up in its usual place 20 or so miles north or south of I85 and we end up with 1-6 inches in those areas above. Just my thoughts right now.

[Poimen]

5 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

I find that really hard to believe. Maybe take a 3rd or 4th of that and it might verify outside of the mountains, IMO.

I don't disagree. Still, will be interesting to see how it verifies.