Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 This is going to be a really big test for the FV 3. I'm curious to see how accurate it is. It has not wobbled one bit that I can recall in recent days. Going off the crude 4 panel NCEP maps, the 12Z looks like a good snow event for the western/northern Piedmont of NC. It also still has some leftovers on Monday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CyclonicFury Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: GFS honestly isnt bad either. I'm thinking this NAM run will end up being fluky. Do you have a link for the NAM ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 South charlotte looking to be more sleet/ice or just rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Folks, we still have 3-4 days before this storm really gets going. As we all know, there is so much that can change between now and Sunday. Posting a NAM or GFS snow map and saying "it's all over for your backyard" and yada... yada... yada, does not belong on this thread. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: GFS honestly isnt bad either. I'm thinking this NAM run will end up being fluky. Yeah, Canadian was actually better compared to its previous runs. GFS still looked good for most of NC. That would still be a big storm for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Meteorology is different than modelology. Models can say one thing, but looking at the actual pattern and understanding what can actually happen is why meteorologists have their job. Surface temps as well as temperatures aloft have been suspect to me for RDU the entire week. A clown map should be used to see where the heaviest snow will fall, while ignoring amounts. To me, central NC may see some snow, but will mostly be a cold rain with maybe some sleet pellets mixed in at times. I would be SHOCKED for anyone in Wake to see more than 1 inch of snow on the ground, and you may want to snap a photo of it if it happens because the rain after will wash it away. You are right...but what you're not understanding is that the models have been cooling the atmosphere from the top down as the precip and lift moves in. Perhaps the better discussion is if that scenario is plausible/likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: GFS honestly isnt bad either. I'm thinking this NAM run will end up being fluky. I was just coming on here to say this. 850 line in a good spot south of CLT, good temps aloft during the heavy stuff. Sfc temps were bad for folks south of GSO but they always are around this time on the models. Storm can still go to the crapper but it isn't that far off from its past runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: You are right...but what you're not understanding is that the models have been cooling the atmosphere from the top down as the precip and lift moves in. Perhaps the better discussion is if that scenario is plausible/likely. It would also be nice if people gave proof as to why the models are wrong, other factors they can actually show, instead of just saying climatology and it's rare to get a big winter storm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, broken024 said: South charlotte looking to be more sleet/ice or just rain? Geeze-look at the maps!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Poimen said: You are right...but what you're not understanding is that the models have been cooling the atmosphere from the top down as the precip and lift moves in. Perhaps the better discussion is if that scenario is plausible/likely. Yep and you can see this on the models. I've found that thickness is a good way to spot ice/rain. You want to be above the 540 line or between it and the 546 because as it cools the column you get sub 540. What you don't want are those red lines stacking on you. It'll be ZR every time and if you're at 546 it's usually sleet. In this case CLT is on the line but with that 850 line well south I'd take my chances that mother nature does the rest of the work. Sorry for the crude drawing. On my phone right now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shane Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Still amazed at the overall model agreement. Usually by this time Nam is Nope, GFS is maybe next week and Euro says buy a snow blower and everyone is picking shirts or skins to see who caves. All we're seeing is oscillations and noise with almost universal agreement that there's going to be a storm, where it's going to be, and when it's going to happen. It's like yeah, you're pregnant, do you want to know the sex? The reveal party is Saturday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: It would also be nice if people gave proof as to why the models are wrong, other factors they can actually show, instead of just saying climatology and it's rare to get a big winter storm here. One of the posts I saw pointed to the fact that the global models may not be capturing the mid-level temps very well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Where the trailing 850 low goes, so does the waa and movement in snow ice. 12z NAM and GFS came in further north into TN compared to 06z. CMC pivoted to the coast further south over C AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Saturday Night Rain. Low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. I will be back in a bit guys, I need to buy some sandbags... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12z FV3 very similar to 6z -- HP maybe even nosing in a bit more. Good run through 66 hours at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTPGiants Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, beanskip said: 12z FV3 very similar to 6z -- HP maybe even nosing in a bit more. Good run through 66 hours at least. Where do people get the FV3 when TT is stuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Did anyone else notice the RGEM has QPF in NC as soon as 12z Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, RTPGiants said: Where do people get the FV3 when TT is stuck? You have to click around on TT to different panels. Sometimes the Radar is stuck, but the 850 temps/MLSP moves ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenkins Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, RTPGiants said: Where do people get the FV3 when TT is stuck? switch to radar (rain/frozen) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, RTPGiants said: Where do people get the FV3 when TT is stuck? It's the "GFS" on this site: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ It updates very quickly on the NCEP site but the site is not as user friendly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Interesting ... FV3 shows 5h closed feature over Tenn/Ark/Mo. border that wasn't there on two prior runs and doesn't exist on GFS or NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Oh my goodness, FV3 even colder than 6z run over Carolinas at 850mb -- 72 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Stays colder all the way through the run -- and wetter, too (vs. 6z). Would get CLT/GSP corridor back in the game big time, if it verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Saweet!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozmaea Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Oh my goodness, FV3 even colder than 6z run over Carolinas at 850mb -- 72 hours. What town as re you in beanSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Out to 96 and it would barely stay all snow at RDU; with the back side band coming through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Southern Wake still sees a changeover, as usual. I'm interesting to see the next NAM run. It does a much better job at the thermal profiles than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM was worse, GFS wasn't as good, and now the Canadian and FV3 are colder and snowier. I guess we get the model wars now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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