December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Precip type on 12Z looks suspicious. 850s cold enough in WNC for snow during entire event. 

Looks like that NAM run might be a little off. 

[mclean02]

[mention=390]msuwx[/mention] no idea what that means.,,lol. But Matt, why no videos since August?

I according to his Twitter he was sick. I hope you are getting well soon and back to making the winter videos

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Waiting on snow]

5 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

 

Look at the position of HP, actually retrogrades back sw on the nam. harder to banana down east slopes of Apps. 

Yeah the placement of the high and it retrograding west looks suspicious to me. I like the NAM for CAD but not sure I can believe that run.

[LithiaWx]

If it can snow 12” in early December down here then you guys should not worry about early December.  Sun angle is low and ground temps mean jack when you get tons of snow.  

 

The wife has wanted to see Asheville for a long time.  Looks like I need to book a room and take her up.  Of course not telling her about the snowstorm.  She hates snow. Lmao

 

[wxduncan]

8 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Precip type on 12Z looks suspicious. 850s cold enough in WNC for snow during entire event. 

@Blue_Ridge_Escarpment I was thinking the very same thing. I'm just east of you in Morganton area and thought it looked like a all snow profile. What gives? Do we toss the run and you still think GSP forecast for our 2 county's is on par still?

[GunBlade]

Will be interesting to see what future models show.  The NAM is killing off snow totals out west as well.  We can say it’s NAM at 84 hours, but it’s not 84 hours for totals out west.  Hopefully that’s not the trend moving forward. 

[HKY_WX]

I wouldn't cliff dive just yet, as the NAM isn't in its better range quite yet 48hrs in.

 

Bad News: That said, it definitely displays what I've been saying for a few days. We're in early December, this is a STJ driven system (85% of it), and this is not a Miller A system. This will have some significant icing involved for some folks (IP/ZR). Those 24 inch totals were never viable outside of the NW mountains.

 

Good News: I think concerns about precip totals are totally unfounded, as this a large amplitude wave with strong STJ connections down to the equatorial regions. There will be no shortage of QPF (2 to 3 inch totals) are likely over a large swath of the state. How much of that is Snow/Ice/Rain is the question.

[Poimen]

12 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Precip type on 12Z looks suspicious. 850s cold enough in WNC for snow during entire event. 

warm nose on the soundings was above 850. 

[FlatLander48]

This looks very realistic to my eye, all snow in the mlountains and extreme NC with either sleet or freezing rain for the Piedmont and areas northeast.

[CyclonicFury]

2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

If it can snow 12” in early December down here then you guys should not worry about early December.  Sun angle is low and ground temps mean jack when you get tons of snow.  

 

Last year in early December in NC, from Raleigh south and east got a miserable cold rain with a brief flurry at the end. 

[Dunkman]

I mean the Triad had a couple years recently in which we had more inches of sleet than snow on the season. I'd never count out a raging sleet storm, especially in a CAD event. Just historically in these very mixed events we (again, piedmont triad) usually seem to end up with snow at the beginning and end, something like 4-8", and then a bunch of crap in the middle. The sum total of the guidance so far seems (to me at least) to fit with that general narrative.

[Waiting on snow]

1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said:

This looks very realistic to my eye, all snow in the mlountains and extreme NC with either sleet or freezing rain for the Piedmont and areas northeast.

The high is weak. But good placement of the high and low off the coast.

[Poimen]

The NAM just fired a warm nose warning shot,..as you all know. But I wonder since we're dealing with dynamical cooling if the NAM's lack of qpf played a role in that outcome? Will want to see how the NAM trends in these departments going forward. 

[BullCityWx]

1 minute ago, Poimen said:

The NAM just fired a warm nose warning shot,..as you all know. But I wonder since we're dealing with dynamical cooling if the NAM's lack of qpf played a role in that outcome? Will want to see how the NAM trends in these departments going forward. 

That is exactly my hypothesis. If you look at the 3K, at Hour 60, you see the snow line advancing because there's precip. On the regular NAM, you dont have anything that triggers dynamic cooling until we knew we'd start mixing anyway.

[sarcean]

I'm sure it could of been posted but can't believe GSP has put out these amounts already

 

 

[mryanwilkes]

1 hour ago, FLO said:

Is suppressed a good thing for ppl in say Columbia? What do you mean by suppressed?

Basically, it means "further south." In terms of latitude, the high pressure system to the north keeps the low pressure system (the moisture) from going further north.

[SnowNiner]

15 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

nearly all sleet per 12z nam.

I'm going to wait for the other models today to run before I say that's the trend, all/more sleet in CLT.  Overnight runs were great for CLT.  EURO and UKMET.  I'm certainly not going to give up yet based on the long range NAM.  Saturday morning if it's still saying that, then yes. 

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Icon coming in warmer. 

[eyewall]

3 minutes ago, sarcean said:

I'm sure it could of been posted but can't believe GSP has put out these amounts already

 

 

That is going to be fun to have to walk down. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, eyewall said:

That is going to be fun to have to walk down. 

Based on the hour 84 NAM?

[SnowNiner]

3 minutes ago, sarcean said:

I'm sure it could of been posted but can't believe GSP has put out these amounts already

 

 

I'm surprised by this as well.  All global guidance essentially shows this, except the NAM.  But usually they creep the numbers up closer to the storm.  I don't know, this has the makings of a huge bust, but I hope not.  Forget you NAM!!

[wxduncan]

5 minutes ago, sarcean said:

I'm sure it could of been posted but can't believe GSP has put out these amounts already

 

 

The totals towards CLT and south might be knocked down a bit. But I-40 west(Hickory,Morganton,Lenoir,Mtns) look just fine even Brad P. said totals could be underdone for those areas. 

[jjwxman]

Who blames RAH for being too conservative now?  Even if the 12z NAM was a crap run, and the 18z comes in super cold, this is why Nick P and the Raleigh forecasting team is waiting to pull the trigger. Good job guys.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

That is going to be fun to have to walk down. 

Are we sure that's not their "high end" map? They used to put out 3 different ones; one for low end totals, one for high end, and one for the middle road (and most likely).

[mckinnonwg]

Thought everyone might enjoy this blog read....just more information for the masses.  I enjoy reading his breakdowns.

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e120618.htm

[SnowDawg]

1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Are we sure that's not their "high end" map? They used to put out 3 different ones; one for low end totals, one for high end, and one for the middle road (and most likely).

That one says expected so I’d guess no. Typically their high end product will have a different title at the top.

[sarcean]

 

2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Are we sure that's not their "high end" map? They used to put out 3 different ones; one for low end totals, one for high end, and one for the middle road (and most likely).

nope that is there expected

 

this is there "high end map"

 

[eyewall]

Here is their expected or most likely map:

[sarcean]

4 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

The totals towards CLT and south might be knocked down a bit. But I-40 west(Hickory,Morganton,Lenoir,Mtns) look just fine even Brad P. said totals could be underdone for those areas. 

I'm in Greensboro but plan to go to Boone or Banner Elk Sat night if the Triad somehow busts. I'm confident I'll find a monster of a storm past a certain elevation.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, sarcean said:

I'm in Greensboro but plan to go to Boone or Banner Elk Sat night if the Triad somehow busts. I'm confident I'll find a monster of a storm past a certain elevation.

Don’t go too high, CAD events are usually better on east facing slopes and valleys.