TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 NAM is much warmer. At the surface and 850 mb. We shall see what other models are saying. However, bad run if you like snow. Great if you like cold cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, beanskip said: This better be a blip. Looks to me the reason for the warmth is that the low is over New Orleans instead of off the coast. Any adjustment north will push cause the colder air to retreat a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, griteater said: Thicknesses (and column temps) are a tick cooler thru the Carolinas on this run of the NAM....500mb is quite similar thru 57 Good catch.. you can see this at the 850 level when it starts cooling as precip develops https://imgur.com/gallery/kn7vwoOp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 This may be the main culprit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 nam warmer than 06z. snow line well north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Looking at the real time movement of air masses, there is a big push south by the arctic air mass with accompanied upper level energy and you can see why this system is modeled to be suppressed. However the slp has yet to form in the gulf and we know it will want to press north with waa. Its unclear how this will resolve. Interesting to see how well the models do with it. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=global-northernhemi-10-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The nam is definitely on the drier side for the whole area, which seems odd considering it used to be the most amped up/heavy qpf.... It shows the front end thump being not much more than a nuisance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Does anyone check soundings anymore? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 beenskip, weaker HP and further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Is it just me, or does the NAM look like a disorganized system compared to the Globals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said: NAM is much warmer. At the surface and 850 mb. We shall see what other models are saying. However, bad run if you like snow. Great if you like cold cold rain Did you check the soundings? I’ll hang up and wait for your answer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: nam warmer than 06z. snow line well north. Sleet fest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Thunderstorms on the Gulf coast , probably robing moisture as well as warming the Atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Total QPF for NAM... very dry for triangle and no way it gets to 1 inch qpf there as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 dry slot starting to show up on NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 And here we go. That is not a good look at all. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, wncsnow said: Total QPF for NAM... very dry for triangle and no way it gets to 1 inch qpf there as modeled Not good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Pilotwx said: Thunderstorms on the Gulf coast , probably robing moisture as well as warming the Atmosphere Oh, Almost forgot about that potential feature in storms like this. Definitely have an effect up this way wrt available moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, eyewall said: And here we go. That is not a good look at all. Agree. And you could see it coming overnight as all the models were less impressive with the CAD. Plenty of time to play catchup, but pretending like this NAM run is a significant change from its prior runs (and not just out at 84 hours, but in the 48-60 hour range) is not a winning play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The nam is definitely on the drier side for the whole area, which seems odd considering it used to be the most amped up/heavy qpf.... It shows the front end thump being not much more than a nuisance Geez, check out the time on the map!! The NAM is slower and the bulk of the moisture is just really getting into the N parts of NC. What I'm saying is this is just the totals for the very beginning of the storm. Be patient! Yes, it's warmer aloft but we'll have to see what other model runs tell us. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I'm glad I was waiting till tonight to put out my snowtotals on social media! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, GreensboroWx said: Geez, check out the time on the map!! The NAM is slower and the bulk of the moisture is just really getting into the N parts of NC. What I'm saying is this is just the totals for the very beginning of the storm. Be patient! Yes, it's warmer aloft but we'll have to see what other model runs tell us. Yes it isn't finished but.. the front end thump being advertised isn't looking as impressive on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 snow line nearly to the virginia border at hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 WPC Discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd ...Southern Appalachians... Day 3... Developing low pressure along the Gulf Coast will strengthen and push eastward to be near the GA/SC coast at the end of day 3. This low will develop in response to a southern stream shortwave moving through the Arklatex and into the TN Valley, as well as diffluence within the right entrance region to an upper jet streaking across New England. Guidance is in reasonably good agreement in the evolution and placement of this surface low, with the NAM a strong and very cold outlier, while the CMC is too fast with the phasing of northern stream energy, and is pulling the surface low too far north too quickly. A blend of the GEFS and ECEns mean is preferred, which suggests precipitation spreading across the Southeast during Saturday. The guidance has overall slowed precip onset due to dry air within a strong wedge of high pressure which remains in place as a result of robust mid-level confluence. E/SE low and mid-level winds spread northward atop the surface wedge, isentropic lift will increase, and precipitation will gradually saturate the column. This will result in wet-bulb cooling of the thermal profile and snow/sleet/freezing rain is all likely to develop Saturday night, with snow in the higher terrain and freezing rain/sleet elsewhere. Despite model differences in timing and p-type, there is a strong multi-model signal for more than 4 inches of snow in the Southern Appalachians before 12Z/Sunday and this is where WPC probabilities are highest for accumulating snow. Some uncertainty exists into how far north precipitation will spread on Day 3 due to dry air inhibition, and there is likely to be a sharp north gradient to snowfall. Additionally, a period of freezing rain and sleet is likely in portions of the mountains and foothills, and WPC probabilities have increased to 20 percent for 0.25 inches of accretion across portions of the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Pretty sure the reason we don't rely on NAM beyond ~48hrs is the precip projections are low score. Not sure on the other aspects it can sniff out though. Like dew points,etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Look at all the lemmings cliff jumping and climbing back up only to jump again with each successive model run. . 7 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Yes it isn't finished but.. the front end thump being advertised isn't looking as impressive on the NAM. If the NAM were to go further in time, I would say it would give southern VA 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Nam has position of HP back over western Wisconsin and also slow with the LP. hence position of HP compared to 6z results in CAA being started latter. Also wake up guys, Raleigh want be getting dry slotted. The model only goes out to 84 and has been the slowest with start up time by 6 to 12 hours compared to other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, tramadoc said: Look at all the lemmings cliff jumping and climbing back up only to jump again with each successive model run. . The usual suspects, every time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, BornAgain13 said: If the NAM were to go further in time, I would say it would give southern VA 6-10". Doubt it. Had already started to switch to sleet in our area at 84. Look at the sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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