December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[rduwx]

3 minutes ago, ajr said:

 

That's really not surprising.  I've tried not to post much during this storm because I didn't want to come across as too negative but once the warm nose showed up on the NAM the first time I didn't have a good feeling.  We still need to wait and see how this turns out and I really hope I'm wrong.  I love snow just as much as everyone else.

[burgertime]

Latest HRR has less snow totals but that's because QPF isn't as far north as the last run. 

[Poimen]

For the Triad, there is more or less a consensus for snow beginning around 1 am and continuing as all snow through 11am-noon, before mixing with and changing to sleet. We'd have to pull 1" per hour rates just to get 10-11". Experience says that is unlikely. So we're probably looking more like 7-9" on the high end, with some sleet on top. That's my call, but I'm of course hoping for more. 

[lilj4425]

Just now, burgertime said:

Latest HRR has less snow totals but that's because QPF isn't as far north as the last run. 

How do the temps look?

[NCSNOW]

3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

For the Triad, there is more or less a consensus for snow beginning around 1 am and continuing as all snow through 11am-noon, before mixing with and changing to sleet. We'd have to pull 1" per hour rates just to get 10-11". Experience says that is unlikely. So we're probably looking more like 7-9" on the high end, with some sleet on top. That's my call, but I'm of course hoping for more. 

Good call and here at randolph, guilford county line id go 4 to 8 and plenty of sleet on top. Dont think Ill reach 6 before sleet gets here, but 4 to 8 gives wiggle room each way. Out to WS and north of Gboro 7 to 12 looks doable, same cavaets apply.

[beanskip]

Much “sleetier” look along I-85 corridor on this HRRR run than prior run. 

[burgertime]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

How do the temps look?

Don't have 850 temps but still shows 8 - 12 for GSP to CLT. Insane totals still. 

[burgertime]

Just now, beanskip said:

Much “sleetier” look along I-85 corridor on this HRRR run than prior run. 

 

 

Good catch. I wish all sites had the same map types. 

[NCSNOW]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Much “sleetier” look along I-85 corridor on this HRRR run than prior run. 

Really need the low to head due east ots. Not crawl any futher north,espeacilly along the coast

[Iceagewhereartthou]

49 minutes ago, insipidlight said:

Hm any reason for this?

Eh,  huh? Did they increase totals? That's not the map I saw earlier. What is the reasoning for the increase?

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, Poimen said:

For the Triad, there is more or less a consensus for snow beginning around 1 am and continuing as all snow through 11am-noon, before mixing with and changing to sleet. We'd have to pull 1" per hour rates just to get 10-11". Experience says that is unlikely. So we're probably looking more like 7-9" on the high end, with some sleet on top. That's my call, but I'm of course hoping for more. 

There's that psychological factor of hitting double digits, or the one foot mark, but all and all it should be a pretty satisfying storm, as long as we can get a few impressive snow bands before the changeover. On the plus side, we don't have to worry about melty mush snow, we get the best during the daytime and it should stick around for a few days. 

It looks like the latest RAP joins the consensus with sleet coming in around 11 am.

[ryan1234]

Looks like northern union county might end up with just cold rain. Happens every time.

Actually, Union County (especially the northern half) maybe be able to “jackpot” in some way seeing as how it’s on that edge. Not saying we will end up with more snow than places to the NW, as it rarely does unless, the storm is super suppressed. But if we can get higher precip rates, it may be game on.


.

[SnowNiner]

Ok, so my official forecast from NWS for Mooresville is over a foot of snow.  I'm not seeing it, but I hope it's right.  Matches up with Allan and Eyewall, but I don't understand how the sleet storm after midmorning isn't going to cut those totals big time...

[Cornsnow]

2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Ok, so my official forecast from NWS for Mooresville is over a foot of snow.  I'm not seeing it, but I hope it's right.  Matches up with Allan and Eyewall, but I don't understand how the sleet storm after midmorning isn't going to cut those totals big time...

I think they are banking on the warm nose not being as strong. Others are saying it will be and cut into totals big time. Who knows maybe we get lucky up that way. I tend to think it will be somewhere in between with snow and then sleet/zr.

[calculus1]

This is my favorite map.  The floor for Hickory is 9 inches!  Crazy.

[beanskip]

18z GFS hopping on the I85 sleet express. 

[chapelhillwx]

@SnowNiner scroll up, that wasn't the most recent map. GSP issued a new one at 3pm that is a few posts above.

[burgertime]

Not that it matters but 18z GFS looks better than 00z. Looks more in line with short range models with regards to QPF. 

[broken024]

Hope you are right Ryan 

[burgertime]

18z GFS is a big hit of snow for WNC/CNC. Much wetter and temps crash as the low gets out to coast. Again probably not worth anything right now. 

 

 

[strongwxnc]

2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

This is my favorite map.  The floor for Hickory is 9 inches!  Crazy.

And they have not changed that 9 in 10 chance map in a while. Looking good. 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Nothing like the GFS joining the qpf party at the 11th hour. 

[insipidlight]

8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Ok, so my official forecast from NWS for Mooresville is over a foot of snow.  I'm not seeing it, but I hope it's right.  Matches up with Allan and Eyewall, but I don't understand how the sleet storm after midmorning isn't going to cut those totals big time...

This is hours old, they released another at 2:57, downgraded AVL to 10".

[burgertime]

GFS brings a second round on Monday. I don't think I've ever seen a clown map for NC on a global that looked like this, this close to an event. Unreal. 

[olafminesaw]

 

[SnowNiner]

2 minutes ago, insipidlight said:

This is hours old, they released another at 2:57, downgraded AVL to 10".

Sorry, I had that queued up and didn't update. New one is similar in my backyard. 

[BullCityWx]

ICON had the same thing at 12z with second round

[Dunkman]

1 minute ago, burgertime said:

GFS brings a second round on Monday. I don't think I've ever seen a clown map for NC on a global that looked like this, this close to an event. Unreal. 



We'll see what ends up happening but I was wondering if the second round may start showing back up on some models. It's the kind of thing I recall showing up very late in the modeling more than once in the past.

[WiseWeather]

17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Eh,  huh? Did they increase totals? That's not the map I saw earlier. What is the reasoning for the increase?

They decreased totals...

 

[Solak]

RAH Disco:

Snow/Ice amounts: 

Only a slight change in forecast snow amounts with the heavy wet 
snowfall axis of 8 to 12 inches expected to along and north of I-85, 
with the predominate p-type expected to fall as mainly, with 
diabatic and strong dynamic lift/cooling supporting a deep near 
freezing isothermal layer. Lift and saturation will begin to wane 21 
to 00z, with p-type changing over to a light freezing rain/drizzle 
overnight. Ice amounts are expected to be less than a 0.10". 

Just south of this heavy snow area and west of US 1,  snow amounts 
of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with the bulk of the snow occurring 
through mid to late morning. Then as the warm air aloft spreads into 
the area from the southeast, p-type is expected to change-over to 
freezing rain, with a 0.10 to 0.25" of freezing rain/ice possible 
through the afternoon.
If the change-over to freezing rain occurs quicker than forecast, 
snow amounts will be less, but ice amounts could easily exceed a 
0.25" of an ice. Ice/freezing rain amounts combined with wind gusts 
in the 25 to 35 mph range will cause widespread damage from downed 
trees and power-lines. 

Finally, east of US-1 and south of I-85, warm nose spreading into 
the area during the mid to late morning will result in a sharp NW to 
SE reduction in snow and ice amounts.  After a quick morning burst 
of snow and/or snow-sleet mix, which could bring 1 to 4 inches of 
snow to the area, a brief period of freezing rain can be expected 
before changing over to rain. Little to no ice is expected.