burrel2 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18z nam looks way better for the upstate. It’s now showing a burst of heavy snow from 8 to midnight before the warm nose flips us to sleet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Here's the HRRR through 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Did Euro Kuchera map ever get posted? Would be appreciated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyBookMonkey Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, burrel2 said: 18z looks way better for the upstate. It’s now showing a burst of heavy snow from 8 to midnight before the warm nose flips us to sleet Nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cornsnow said: When do we start using much shorter range models like the HRRR, RAP and others? I thought lots of models like the NAM, GFS, Euro are not as accurate when you are literally inside 12 hours or less from go time? Are we sure they aren't as accurate? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Nam has mixing even over the mountains and foothills of NC at 21. Heavy snow into eastern KY as well. Precip on northern side lining up nicely. system has slowed down once again as well same time frame as noted above. Still around CHS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, WidreMann said: 18z NAM is coming in warmer and further north. Doesn't look that bad to me.... sorry yea RDU doesn't do well verbatim but I'm a little skeptical that line is gonna be hard to define. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: Doesn't look that bad to me.... Yeah it improved slightly after 18 hrs, but it's a little warmer at the surface late mroning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Warmer overall, but less of a warm nose this time, ends up evening out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, olafminesaw said: Warmer overall, but less of a warm nose this time, ends up evening out. Was that a Gso sounding ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 850 down to NC/SC border and 925 at Meck Union border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 SREF snow mean for GSO is just under 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, WidreMann said: Yeah it improved slightly after 18 hrs, but it's a little warmer at the surface late mroning. Hi-res looks better for RDU here are 850's at hour 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, mclean02 said: Was that a Gso sounding ? Yes. 3 hours later is a different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, GunBlade said: 850 down to NC/SC border and 925 at Meck Union border. Living on the edge my friend....who ever is on the good side of that line is gonna get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, WidreMann said: Are we sure they aren't as accurate? Not sure, that's why I posed the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Where do you get the lose 925/850 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Hi-res NAM has all snow for RDU. Battle line for ice is right at CLT and along I-85. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: Hi-res NAM has all snow for RDU. Battle line for ice is right at CLT and along I-85. As it usually is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, broken024 said: Where do you get the lose 925/850 maps https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=925mb Change the sector at the top and toggle through tabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, broken024 said: Where do you get the lose 925/850 maps Storm Prediction Center’s website Mesoscale pages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 If Hi-res NAM is correct verbatim it drops almost 6 inches of snow on CLT before the switch over to sleet. Those would be some seriously heavy rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insipidlight Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Dense snow in Asheville now. Quick transition from rain ->big flakes -> wet snow. Will post radarscope in a bit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insipidlight Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtylerb Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I am a meteorologist in West Virginia which covers the southern counties; Beckley to Bluefield and I am ready to scream with this shift back to the north today! 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18Z NAM has 2.5-3 inches of qpf here. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, Cornsnow said: When do we start using much shorter range models like the HRRR, RAP and others? I thought lots of models like the NAM, GFS, Euro are not as accurate when you are literally inside 12 hours or less from go time? NAM is a short-term mesoscale model that does well inside 24 hours. However, it has the same weakness as the globals (which are kings of medium range timeframes) in that they only update every 6 hours or 12 hours. Inside 12 hours, especially within 5 hours, the short term models gain more weight in consideration since they are run with new data every hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 So many near 20... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 RDU per the Hi-Res NAM would get around a foot of snow before changing over to sleet just based on QPF and p-type maps. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, burgertime said: RDU per the Hi-Res NAM would get around a foot of snow before changing over to sleep just based on QPF and p-type maps. If that verified I would change over to sleep too. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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