December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[griteater]

The NAM is the new Dr No

[PackWxMan]

[GunBlade]

3 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

While the GFS likes central NC. The EURO had a strong shift north. Im guessing the EuroENS will follow the op run.

NAM did so well last winter, now that we see Euro adjusting towards NAM it worries me that it is simply getting a better track on the L and the warm air aloft that comes with it.

Time and time again the Globals fail this close to the storm.  It’s fruitless trying to forecast with those now unless you want to prove a point that’s likely to not come to fruition...

[PackWxMan]

As the HRRR enters the picture

[Poimen]

Bet it was the 700mb temps on the EURO. 

[Cold Rain]

1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

Time and time again the Globals fail this close to the storm.  It’s fruitless trying to forecast with those now unless you want to prove a point that’s likely to not come to fruition...

You actually can do pretty well if you understand the setup and learn from past situations. Even if you simply use the snow maps and take the 48-72 hour ones and adjust the max significantly north and cut them in half, you’ll usually get pretty close.

[SENC]

out to 10

[WeatherNC]

In Wilkesboro, about to make the final call of Blowing Rock or Sparta, I don’t want to enitely discount the RGEM and NAM for 2” of QPF with little mixing around Sparta.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Just now, Poimen said:

Bet it was the 700mb temps on the EURO. 

 

[Touchet]

Yesterday, when looking at the RGEM, it had most of southern NC switching to a mix, ending with rain, then going back to snow on the back end of the low. It did however start with a good snow at first. The only place that stayed all snow was the very northern parts of NC and the NW mountains. I like the RGEM, especially the day before. When we had a lot of snow in Birmingham last year, it got it right the day before when all forecasts predicted very little based on the others. So maybe that’s where the lower snow amounts are coming from?  Most of the precip for most of the state with switch over to a sleet/freezing rain lowering the totals. 

[mrdaddyman]

6 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Time and time again the Globals fail this close to the storm.  It’s fruitless trying to forecast with those now unless you want to prove a point that’s likely to not come to fruition...

From what I understand, the Hi Res Euro has 9 Km resolution. Doesn't sound like too much of a slouch to me.

[GunBlade]

4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

You actually can do pretty well if you understand the setup and learn from past situations. Even if you simply use the snow maps and take the 48-72 hour ones and adjust the max significantly north and cut them in half, you’ll usually get pretty close.

Agreed, not taking them face value and using lots of other thought they can be helpful.  Most don’t.  I’m probably also more biased based on climatology where I’m at since it’s so hard for any model to nail down this area. 

[HurricaneTracker]

I’m reducing snowfall totals based on an analysis of all new data. It seems highly likely there will be a layer of warm air aloft that makes it to us overnight. So, while surface temperatures will be in the mid 20s, it will be above freezing at 10,000 feet.  So...

Asheville: 4-8" of snow and 1-2" of sleet, no ice
Hendersonville: 3-7" of snow and 2-4" of sleet, some minor glazing possible

Now, if the warm nose fails to materialize (possible, but seems like it will), then the forecast is unchanged from yesterday:

AVL: 10-15"
HEND: 15-20"

So you see what a huge deal this layer of warm air is aloft.  I will make another update/revision this evening. 

[SENC]

….. 

[olafminesaw]

10 minutes ago, [email protected] said:

Euro snow maps? 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Ouch. Lights out for weeks if this verifies in S NC and N. SC

[nwupstatewx]

As an FYI for anyone watching surface maps and how the short range models are doing vs. what is falling, Highlands NC Main Street just went to snow minutes ago: https://highlandsnc.org/cam.

[mstr4j]

Our temperatures in the upstate along 85 have hardly budged.  Looking at 42-43 with a DP in the upper 30's.  Been reports of light sleet and wet snow north into Inman and Landrum.  Banking on the HP doing its thing later this evening to really cool down the surface temps.  

[SENC]

HRRR total  snow accumulation is NOT good, 10-1 (Kuch) It  just finished.. 

[SnowNiner]

4 minutes ago, SENC said:

….. 

HRRR still looks good.  For some reason in my mind, it's always been the harbinger of the dreaded warm nose, not the NAM.  I'm happy it's on my side.  We'll see. 

[mstr4j]

5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Ouch. Lights out for weeks if this verifies in S NC and N. SC

I agree that any accumulation could be bad but don't bank on those totals actually accumulating.  No where near cold enough at surface, should be raining heavy at times which minimizes accretion

[GunBlade]

17z HRRR holding on to keeping rain much further south. 

[HKY_WX]

38 minutes ago, Businessjan said:

Sweet Jesus that blankets pretty 90% of NC with precip

Notice the low pressure is up into central AL and GA. I spoke about this a few days ago. This often happens in STJ dominate system where CAD has setup. This always changes everyone to ice except for the NW mountains. That's why these 10:1 snow ratio maps posted all week were worthless.

[drfranklin]

7 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

Our temperatures in the upstate along 85 have hardly budged.  Looking at 42-43 with a DP in the upper 30's.  Been reports of light sleet and wet snow north into Inman and Landrum.  Banking on the HP doing its thing later this evening to really cool down the surface temps.  

interesting, I'm at 38.5/37 - temp very dependent on rates - 2 miles north of I-85 near DT Greenville - mixing occurs with higher precip rates - precip lightens and the temp can rise 1/2 degree and mixing stops

[ryan1234]

"If you haven't prepared for this winter storm, your window is closing rapidly. Driving will be dangerous AT LEAST tonight through tomorrow PM and many folks will lose power. A bunch of us at the office at GSP are even planning to sleep here tonight. This is one to take seriously."

 

This just came in from GSP's Facebook page. Despite some of the newer globals, I am not quite ready to call this a "bust" yet and go cliff diving. Yet, it seems like a lot of you have already jumped and are plummeting to the ground.  

[CADEffect]

This was my forecast for last night. For SNOW 

[mstr4j]

2 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

interesting, I'm at 38.5/37 - temp very dependent on rates - 2 miles north of I-85 near DT Greenville - mixing occurs with higher precip rates - precip lightens and the temp can rise 1/2 degree and mixing stops

Guessing it takes longer to come East up 85 - sitting on the northern eastside of Spartanburg county - all signals seem to be pointing at an ice storm for our area, we shall see

[WidreMann]

4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Notice the low pressure is up into central AL and GA. I spoke about this a few days ago. This often happens in STJ dominate system where CAD has setup. This always changes everyone to ice except for the NW mountains. That's why these 10:1 snow ratio maps posted all week were worthless.

They should be banned TBH.

The amount of midlevel warmth is going to really cut down on snow for folks tomorrow. I'm predicting a lot of "why is it already sleeting?" posts.

[Cold Rain]

Just now, WidreMann said:

They should be banned TBH.

The amount of midlevel warmth is going to really cut down on snow for folks tomorrow. I'm predicting a lot of "why is it already sleeting?" posts.

At this point, I’m just hoping for some sleet.

[Southern Track]

6 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

interesting, I'm at 38.5/37 - temp very dependent on rates - 2 miles north of I-85 near DT Greenville - mixing occurs with higher precip rates - precip lightens and the temp can rise 1/2 degree and mixing stops

I’m in the Five Forks area and I’m pretty comparable.  37.8/36.2