jm1220 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I would track the 700/850mb lows on the models-where they go determines who mixes and dryslots. If the 850mb low goes over or north of you, expect a significant period of sleet. And mid level warming is often underestimated by models-I would take the warmest mid level forecast and go with that. Surface level warming can be overestimated, so that may set up a nasty area of ZR. Something we get burned with plenty of times up here too. Good luck down there as I may spot a cirrus cloud or two from this later today. Just maybe. Usually these suppressed pieces of crap at least get some cirrus up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Looking at the 12z GFS. The crazy/fantasy snow map has >10" in Wake County before the change over occurs. Even if that's half that value, we could still see some nice (actual 5-10) amounts through out the county. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Much more of a pronounced warm nose this run, FWIW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyBookMonkey Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Lookout said: a note on the 3km nam, currently it's running on average about 3 degrees too warm right now here in georgia and in a lot of areas seeing rain. If it held this average error into tonight, temps would get to freezing in gainesville/85 corridor between 0z and 03z where it gets these areas down to 34 by 03z. Lookout how do you see zr chances for our area? Northeast ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 30 minutes ago, griteater said: Upper level divergence on the GFS....this is what the big ones look like Looking back on the Jan 2018 storm thread you posted something similar.. hopefully an auspicious sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The GFS is not only isothermal IMBY but safely so. I really am skeptical to trust it’s thermals but it’s had support from the HRRR/RAP/Euro/ICON so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 GFS and ICON clowns: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Much more of a pronounced warm nose this run, FWIW All a result of placement of the low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Lookout said: a note on the 3km and 12km nam, currently it's running on average about 3 degrees too warm right now here in georgia and in a lot of areas seeing rain. If it held this average error into tonight, temps would get to freezing in gainesville/85 corridor between 0z and 03z where it gets these areas down to 34 by 03z. Spot on with this. Will be interesting how that trend plays out. Heavy shower came through here and dropped it down to 35.2 and the HRRR just initialized with me at darn near 40. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, lilj4425 said: Is that a second wave over Fort Worth, Texas? That’s what I was thinking. I might be wrong though. I live in Lewisville TX now which is 20 mins North from downtown Dallas and it raining steadily here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 For thise in ne Ga / SC waiting on cad. Dewpoint is 22 in Danville , 25 Greensboro,24 Asheboro,25 Lexington. Noticing a very small breeze now. HP is centered over OHIO, need it to get into PA, but its influensce,subtle at the moment is starting to be felt 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Yea breeze is picking up a bit in Danville. I like the spot we are in with the northern trends. Big frosty jackpot again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Yea breeze is picking up a bit in Danville. I like the spot we are in with the northern trends. Big frosty jackpot again?I hope! But I Also hope everybody gets a good snow!! . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Yea breeze is picking up a bit in Danville. I like the spot we are in with the northern trends. Big frosty jackpot again? If I had to pick a spot to be for this, it would definitely be just south of Roanoke, down I-81 to Bristol and the W NC mountains. You guys should get buried around there. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 A question: I'm wondering if the last few cases of warm noses winning out occurred in conjunction with a similar well-placed CAD? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackWxMan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Poimen said: A question: I'm wondering if the last few cases of warm noses winning out occurred in conjunction with a similar well-placed CAD? yes. The warm nose will almost always win out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 19 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Spot on with this. Will be interesting how that trend plays out. Heavy shower came through here and dropped it down to 35.2 and the HRRR just initialized with me at darn near 40. yeah the hrrr is always...always...too warm in these situations at the surface. With constant rain and the onset of cad, i don't expect any rise in temps across north ga which means by this afternoon the hrrr could end up being about 5 degrees too warm on average by this afternoon in spots. These 3 to 5 degree biases are right right on average in cad. I'm also think they are way too warm sunday night into monday at the surface and 950mb which is in part causing the models to spit out rain instead of snow. What makes it even more unlikely is the fact the models are showing temps rising into the mid to upper 30s at NIGHT with still NE flow. There is some downslope warming possible over parts of far north of ga but for everywhere else I'd be truly shocked if that happened. So don't be surprised if that is snow instead of rain monday in a lot of places. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The old GFS looked like it finally had a clue and then suffered from some form of convective feedback issues at 36, whereas at 33 it had the low just south of MYR. It attempted some weird double barrel low type structure at that point. It’s attempting but right now imo is the worst model for this thing. It’s time for high res models but I figured I’d point that out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just posted my final forecast map for this storm.... I remain very concerned about the warm nose for a couple of reasons. In western NC, the warm nose usually seems to move in a little further than expected, and it is not usually at the 850 mb level. It is usually around 750 to 700 mb. Looking at the GFS model, it shows temperatures VERY close to freezing throughout the column in the foothills and western piedmont (Basically areas shaded in yellow). Most winter storms that have this much moisture usually result in sleet or freezing rain at some point. While this does not mean that some areas in the yellow may receive a foot of snow, or more, I do expect sleet to enter into the equation at some point in the triad and Catawba Valley. That is why I hestiated in moving the 10-20 inch line too far outside of the mountains and western facing foothills. For the mountains, I think they will remain all snow for the entire event. I would not be shocked if some areas receive over a foot of snow in parts of the mountains. In the eastern part of the state towards Raleigh is another very difficult forecast because of the warm nose and boundary layer temperatures. I may be underestimating areas west of Raleigh; however, any movement in the rain/snow line to the west is possible. Another area where the cutoff will be sharp is in the Charlotte metro, and this is another area where I may have underestimated totals if the rain/snow line sets up a little further south. I am looking forward to reviewing the data from the UNC-Asheville balloon launches. The first balloon was launched at 15 UTC today and will be launched through Monday at 12 UTC. The information that is gathered from the balloon launch will definitely help us understand how the models are handling the current state of the atmosphere, and it will help nowcast the event as well in western NC. This has been an amazing storm to forecast, and now we are in a nowcasting situation. I look forward to seeing how this storm plays out. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I have been really surprised that we have been tracking this system for a week and the models have been so consistent (with only minor variations here and there). With that said, I hope it isn't a bust. If it ends up being a bust (especially for Wake), then I will have a hard time putting stock in the models with systems like this in the future. Especially after the Jan 2017 debacle. That's why I'm leaning toward the NAM and high-res models over globals. You guys have to do the legwork. The models did great getting us to this point identifying how much qpf, h5 setup. This warmnose is barely gonna kiss mby or barely miss. Within 10 to 20 miles of my house it could go from 2 inches to 12+. If your sitting on the fringes,like most of us are, do not buy into 12 to 18 inches of snow. Common sense and the short range cam models are showing the warm nose will be around, so expect to get mixed or changed with sleet, frzng rain possibly. You shouldny feel safe unless your in extreme nw foothills and northern mtns into sw VA. Everyone east of 77 , espeacilly east of 85 needs to expect a visit overhead from the warm nose. Why im watching upper air data, its whats gonna decide the story from this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said: I wouldn’t put much stock in the NAM. Check this error. That's the NAM at 60 vs actual, right? The NAM at this range is much more deadly, especially the 3k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Wow, the FV3 GFS has absolutely shown killer consistency, right to the end. If this storm follows it's script, what a coup! Nice to have a trustworthy (at times) tool in the the toolbox, or at least moreso than the current iteration of the GFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, Poimen said: A question: I'm wondering if the last few cases of warm noses winning out occurred in conjunction with a similar well-placed CAD? Its a good question. My general thinking is that this situation is maybe not a great example of well placed CAD just because the air mass is marginal in its coldness. Also, warm noses are more pronounced with a vigorous slp that is sub 1K and is riding up the coastline. In that case you have strong east or southeast winds that bring an intense warm air temperature advection from the coastal flow. In this case with the slp being rather weak and having a more suppressed track with a more easterly trajectory, the warm nose is less pronounced and is more associated with the slp air mass itself rather than bringing in a massive amount of coastal air. My thinking, Mets or others please feel free to correct this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: What's this? County: All Selected -- SC -- Aiken, SC Bamberg, SC Barnwell, SC Calhoun, SC Chesterfield, SC Clarendon, SC Edgefield, SC Fairfield, SC Kershaw, SC Lancaster, SC Lee, SC Lexington, SC McCormick, SC Newberry, SC Orangeburg, SC Richland, SC Saluda, SC Sumter, SC -- GA -- Burke, GA Columbia, GA Lincoln, GA McDuffie, GA Richmond, GA For cities in Orangeburg, SC county Location Snow Amount Potential Chance of Seeing More Snow Than Low End Snowfall Expected Snowfall High End Snowfall >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Bowman, SC 0 0 0 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Branchville, SC 0 0 <1 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Elloree, SC 0 0 0 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Holly Hill, SC 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Neeses, SC 0 0 0 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% North, SC 0 0 <1 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Norway, SC 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Orangeburg, SC 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Santee, SC 0 0 0 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Springfield, SC 0 0 0 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% I got snowholed... STOP Posting nonsense 3 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 27 minutes ago, Poimen said: A question: I'm wondering if the last few cases of warm noses winning out occurred in conjunction with a similar well-placed CAD? Also; even with a well placed CAD with very cold air, it will hug the surface and the warm nose will flow right over it resulting in copious sleet or freezing rain. So yeah, the warm nose always wins if it is there at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 First balloon launch at UNC-Asheville has finished its ascent at 15 UTC. Most of the column is below freezing except at 851 mb (+.06C) and 789 mb (+.11C). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxJordan said: First balloon launch at UNC-Asheville has finished its ascent at 15 UTC. Most of the column is below freezing except at 851 mb (+.06C) and 789 mb (+.11C). Not exactly encouraging... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilpappas75 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxJordan said: First balloon launch at UNC-Asheville has finished its ascent at 15 UTC. Most of the column is below freezing except at 851 mb (+.06C) and 789 mb (+.11C). Great info. Does it show for how many feet/meters that it is above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 fv3 still showing a changeover to very heavy snow for a few hours down to gainesville. Nam still says no and only shows a change to freezing rain toward sunrise. Hrrr still showing a changeover to heavy sleet. Going to be fascinating to see which model, the fv3 or nam, wins this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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