December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

[buckeyefan1]

****************************************Keep ON TOPIC*********************************************

[CaryWx]

6 minutes ago, ander420 said:

Hi all, I am more of a lurker here (for a decade or so lol).  I generally keep quiet because my expertise in a far different field and I just enjoy reading.  I did have a noob question, that is both for general knowledge purposes and also with an eye for my personal situation.  As a native New Englander who now lives about ten miles from RDU airport, the only things that really bother me in NC about weather are tornadoes and ice storms.   I have read a good bit about ice storms, but am unsure the extent to which the icing in this storm will have impacts.  From a layman's perspective, I understand snow, sleet, and freezing rain in general.  That being said, I have read estimates from model runs ranging from .10 to .70 inches of icing.  As I understand it, it is when the icing hits .25 the problems start and by .50 there are pretty widespread power outages around here.  Assuming this is correct, why has there been so little said about the icing potential of this storm in the Triangle?  Is there something with the expected mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain in this that would minimize that risk for trees, powerlines etc.  The only thing in 13 years in NC that has caused significant time without power here for us is ice storms.  It is something I never appreciated as a New Englander before moving south.  Thanks in advance for any replies and enjoy the snow

I'm no expert by any means and we do have a few here.   Although models were showing it yesterday the NWS has only released a real threat notification early this morning as more of the shorter range models began to show a decent hit of zr.   That said I doubt we see more than .20 accrual in the RDU as indicated so don't get too wound up about numbers like .70  Also, we will not have 2m (ground level) temps below freezing for that long and even then we are talking 31 degrees or so.  All said I suspect there will be some power outages in the area.  Hopefully for not long duration.

[mstr4j]

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

Hrrr is getting GSP down to 28 degree's by 8am Sunday. That's 4 degree's colder than any other model has showed to this point.  Even more impressive when you consider the Hrrr is typically torching at the end of its run.

It's also flipping the rain over to a major sleet storm by midnight for most of the upstate including hart/anderson/newberry counties. If the wedge can get cranking that quick this could still be quite a winter storm for us.

One concern I have is the backside of the precip looks to fly through here around 3 or 4am; and the development of precip in the dry slot behind that band is usually questionable in coverage and intensity.  

Burrel I hope its right - My issue early on and even now are marginal temperatures at best.  Many have talked about it being an issue in the upper levels but I think it is still a major deal on the surface.  Temps did not get as cool last night as originally forcasted so even more radiant heat must be expelled.  Us GSP-I-85 people understand how hard it is to get even the surface levels down to below freezing then mix in some upper level warmth from the low in the upper levels and it has potential bust written all over it.  I'm no expert, don't claim to be just a redneck with a commonsense approach to figuring out what will hjappen in our area.  We need to hope the HP funnels some cold air down in a hurry!  And hopefully it will!!  This is no shot at mets and professionals, what they do is hard, especially in this region.  They all do a great job

[donsutherland1]

So far, from a quick look at the overnight guidance and the advance of the precipitation, everything seems remarkably on track for the storm.

[GunBlade]

Yea HRRR definitely impressive.  Flips CLT over to a mix at 11 tonight and never flips it back.  Keeps the line much further south.  Big model battle going on. 

[CADEffect]

8 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Hrrr is getting GSP down to 28 degree's by 8am Sunday. That's 4 degree's colder than any other model has showed to this point.  Even more impressive when you consider the Hrrr is typically torching at the end of its run.

It's also flipping the rain over to a major sleet storm by midnight for most of the upstate including hart/anderson/newberry counties. If the wedge can get cranking that quick this could still be quite a winter storm for us.

One concern I have is the backside of the precip looks to fly through here around 3 or 4am; and the development of precip in the dry slot behind that band is usually questionable in coverage and intensity.  

What are you looking at? The soundings isn’t really under 32 the entire storm across the Upstate. 

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Yea HRRR definitely impressive.  Flips CLT over to a mix at 11 tonight and never flips it back.  Keeps the line much further south.  Big model battle going on. 

You don't even flip back on Sunday afternoon/evening?

[burrel2]

Just now, mstr4j said:

Burrel I hope its right - My issue early on and even now are marginal temperatures at best.  Many have talked about it being an issue in the upper levels but I think it is still a major deal on the surface.  Temps did not get as cool last night as originally forcasted so even more radiant heat must be expelled.  Us GSP-I-85 people understand how hard it is to get even the surface levels down to below freezing then mix in some upper level warmth from the low in the upper levels and it has potential bust written all over it.  I'm no expert, don't claim to be just a redneck with a commonsense approach to figuring out what will hjappen in our area.  We need to hope the HP funnels some cold air down in a hurry!  And hopefully it will!!  This is no shot at mets and professionals, what they do is hard, especially in this region.  They all do a great job

Our cold air flip to snow/sleet is totally dependent on when the lowlevel NE jet gets cranking from the pressure gradient tonight. The models have it quickly going from nothing to 40/50knots. The hi-res models are now showing it cranking earlier.. flipping the upstate to sleet by midnight.

Just checked the RAP... it is lock step with the Hrrr in flipping the upstate over to sleet around midnight, and dropping surface temps to below freezing shortly after. 

Here's an image at midnight from the rap.

[GunBlade]

Just now, CaryWx said:

You don't even flip back on Sunday afternoon/evening?

Nope.  Only goes to 4 pm and there’s a dry slot over CLT but here’s 2 pm. 

[burrel2]

3 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

What are you looking at? The soundings isn’t really under 32 the entire storm across the Upstate. 

[olafminesaw]

No warm nose at 700 mb on the 12z HRRR. It's not really reliable at this range, but good new nonetheless. 

[Wow]

7 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Yea HRRR definitely impressive.  Flips CLT over to a mix at 11 tonight and never flips it back.  Keeps the line much further south.  Big model battle going on. 

Northern end looks like mainly snow running through the hourly soundings

[CaryWx]

3 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Nope.  Only goes to 4 pm and there’s a dry slot over CLT but here’s 2 pm. 

Thanks Gun.  RDU looks to be hanging on to sleet at that time so better than frz rain

[Wow]

7 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Nope.  Only goes to 4 pm and there’s a dry slot over CLT but here’s 2 pm. 

snow sounding

[Wow]

Well, the 12z NAM is looking better for CLT to RDU

[wncsnow]

12Z NAM is still crusher of dreams for southern fringes.. Lots of IP/ZR

[SnowDawg]

9 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

Burrel I hope its right - My issue early on and even now are marginal temperatures at best.  Many have talked about it being an issue in the upper levels but I think it is still a major deal on the surface.  Temps did not get as cool last night as originally forcasted so even more radiant heat must be expelled.  Us GSP-I-85 people understand how hard it is to get even the surface levels down to below freezing then mix in some upper level warmth from the low in the upper levels and it has potential bust written all over it.  I'm no expert, don't claim to be just a redneck with a commonsense approach to figuring out what will hjappen in our area.  We need to hope the HP funnels some cold air down in a hurry!  And hopefully it will!!  This is no shot at mets and professionals, what they do is hard, especially in this region.  They all do a great job

This is precisely my concern right now. Last night models were showing changeover here between 11 am and 1 pm, hence GSP moving my WSW up to noon. But temps have been 3-4 degrees or more above forecast all night long and continues to refuse to budge this morning. I know that we’ll see changeover by the heart of the storm, but going to miss out on a lot more qpf than initially expected before then. 

[FallsLake]

At hr 22 it looks better for the RDU folks. Snow line is setting up just south of Wake county; whereas is was well into Wake at the same time on 6z. So colder. 

 

Edit 12z NAM

[Lookout]

47 minutes ago, UpstateSCGamecock said:

GSP’s discussion page doesn’t give much hope for snow south of 85 and they are not sure if frozen gets to advisory criteria. Your post gives me hope. Thanks for the informative posts for your neck of the words. That would bode well for me in S of 85 in SC.


.

 

Well it's certainly by no means a lock and  the chances are based on the fv3 and euro mainly...nam says no and the hrrr says it's sleet (or maybe some snow mixed in..it's hard to say since i'm near 100% positive it's surface temps are several degrees too warm as is usually the case in these situations and could be throwing it off). If it happens, it would be sometime between 01z/02z and 06z in ga and 09z in sc  as the fv3 also brings the warm nose screaming in. 

it would be nice to see the nam come on board but the 12z run is holding firm. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[beanskip]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

12Z NAM is still crusher of dreams for southern fringes.. Lots of IP/ZR

But it trended better than 6z run. More snow before changeover to sleet/zr, at least per radar graphics.  

[DopplerWx]

1 minute ago, beanskip said:

But it trended better than 6z run. More snow before changeover to sleet/zr, at least per radar graphics.  

Yea initial rain then all snow until 5-6am or so in clt. 3k looks colder too

[olafminesaw]

The NAM is definitely closer to all snow for Guilford county.  The NW corner even stays all snow. Move the sn/ip line 20 miles south, and we're golden. 

[burrel2]

10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

This is precisely my concern right now. Last night models were showing changeover here between 11 am and 1 pm, hence GSP moving my WSW up to noon. But temps have been 3-4 degrees or more above forecast all night long and continues to refuse to budge this morning. I know that we’ll see changeover by the heart of the storm, but going to miss out on a lot more qpf than initially expected before then. 

Places from clayton, to salem, to pumpkintown to travelers rest have the potential to flip over to heavy snow around 4 or 5pm tonight. That looks to be the southern extent of this possible early changeover.

I'm not factoring that in to my expectations becuase I don't believe that changeover will make it to my house, but if I lived in the above area's I would be feverishly watching the data pouring in today and crossing my fingers and toes.

[kvegas-wx]

So the heavy precip looks to be nearly finished by tomorrow night.  Which feature are we looking at to extend this into Monday? Originally I thought it was just a slow system riding up the coast.  But after seeing a couple models kick this quickly OTS over night, is there a second low swinging thru? I saw a mention of a double barrel low thru my weary eyes overnight.  

[burrel2]

Just now, mstr4j said:

I think places like Landrum and Campobello have a good chance too burrel

absolutely... I didn't mean that the chances stop at travelers rest. I would love to be living in Landrum right now!

[Poimen]

The NAM is better than previous runs but it does have a pronounced warm nose coming through at 700 mb. It looks like the warm nose affects areas from Charlotte to RDU and points just south of 85 in the Triad. HRRR has the same warm nose, but less pronounced and stays well south. 

Also of interest is the 9Z GSO SREF. Snowfall mean jumped to 10" and total qpf mean around 2." Altogether an encouraging run of models so far for many of us.

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

So the heavy precip looks to be nearly finished by tomorrow night.  Which feature are we looking at to extend this into Monday? Originally I thought it was just a slow system riding up the coast.  But after seeing a couple models kick this quickly OTS over night, is there a second low swinging thru? I saw a mention of a double barrel low thru my weary eyes overnight.  

Is that a second wave over Fort Worth, Texas? That’s what I was thinking. I might be wrong though. 

[Poimen]

10 of the SREF members are between 12-17" for GSO. This is a big jump. 

[SLAMSTORM22]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Is that a second wave over Fort Worth, Texas? That’s what I was thinking. I might be wrong though. 

Isn't it the upper level low? I was wondering the same

[timnc910]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Is that a second wave over Texas? That’s what I was thinking. 

that is the upper level part of this storm. that is what is suppose to swing through with the second wave of precip. Although models have trended less with the precip from this feature as it swings through.