shaggy Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 MHX is dangling a carrot for us folks just east of I95. Either way I'm expecting little to nothing but its possible this could be a couple inches higher in totals if these models they list are correct. ...High pressure to the north will strengthen tonight, and help funnel some colder air into NC. This will coincide with heavier precip moving into, and over the whole area from tonight through most of Sunday. This combination will allow rain to change to snow early Sunday morning across the western portion of the coastal plain. It is becoming more likely that snow will accumulate up to a couple inches in this area which includes the cities of Kinston, Greenville, and Williamston. Right now, expect mostly 1-2 inches of accumulation, however if these locations stay colder for longer, as indicated in the latest ECMWF, NSSL WRF, and SPC HREF, up to 4 or 5 inches could fall over portions of these counties. We will initiate a winter weather advisory for these areas, and reevaluate the latest model trends through the day today. As the low and mid levels warm above freezing during the early afternoon, the snow or rain/snow mix will turn to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Poimen said: The NAM soundings indicate the problem may be a loss of saturation in the snow growth zone more than a warm nose. Either way, this is pause for concern. Nailbiter as always because that tends to be an on the ground issue. We need @phil882 on the case! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, neilpappas75 said: I think it's because all the thicknesses are too high even all the way up to around Virginia. And every 6 hours, they get better, but not good enough. Yep to me that's concerning...however to your point it tends to be a tick better the past two runs. I personally think if you're right on the edge of that 546 line there's enough heavy moisture to overcome it and with winds being easterly and coming from the north that should get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Posted 11 minutes ago ...Significant Winter Storm to Impact much of Central North Carolinas tonight through Monday... .A developing winter storm will spread heavy snow and ice across central North Carolina tonight and Sunday. Some wintry precipitation may linger Sunday night into Monday prolonging the storm. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow late tonight and Sunday morning, becoming mixed snow and freezing rain Sunday afternoon. A transition to all freezing rain is possible Sunday afternoon. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Total ice accumulations of up to a quarter inch expected. * WHERE...A corridor of the eastern Piedmont and northwest Sandhills regions of central North Carolina. This includes much of the Triangle area. * WHEN...From 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel is likely to be very difficult Sunday and Sunday night. Even in locations with lesser snow accumulations, the potential for accumulations of snow and freezing rain combined will impact travel. Downed trees and limbs may create significant power outages additional travel hazards. * Temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 Sunday morning, rising into the lower 30s Sunday afternoon and evening. they pulled the trigger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilpappas75 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, burgertime said: Yep to me that's concerning...however to your point it tends to be a tick better the past two runs. I personally think if you're right on the edge of that 546 line there's enough heavy moisture to overcome it and with winds being easterly and coming from the north that should get it done. Agree completely, which is where I got my totals. But the thing that worries me is that the models are picking up the heavy precip, which should compensate enough with the winds, but there are not changing those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVA_SN Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6z rgem has the heavy snow in the same area as the 00z but even higher totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The current radar across the South, should put to rest the “ dryer” runs of the models people are worrying about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 A few things for folks south of I-40, I'm typically biased towards the optimistic side (why I'm in marketing and not a scientist). So if you end up with a ton of sleet and go, "but models said" or if you end up with all snow expecting sleet and go, "but the models said".. here is the list of the negatives and positives: Negatives: Statistically, odds are not in our favor for a major winter event in December. It just doesn't happen that much, so first things first we're fighting against climate and history. As @Cold Rain has stated many times we don't have a true polar air mass. So this isn't a situation where moisture is brute forcing it's way into sub-freezing temperatures and snow is a lock. When you have to count on the storm to do the bulk of the dynamic work at the 850 level at game-time it usually doesn't end well for folks from GSP-CLT-RDU. Positives: Wisdom is knowing a tomato doesn't belong in a fruit salad. Wisdom tells us given the factors at play (and GSP/WPC lays it out better than most on here could) the models aren't properly predicting what usually happens. There's just enough cold air to work with it. Even IF the models are right you get a historic storm, it just may end up being mostly sleet Even IF the models are right most should still end up with a few inches of snow which is a minor miracle in early December anyways Bottom line is, more focus will now be on what's happening on the ground and short-term models to better predict how this plays out. There will be winners and there will be losers. A winner or loser may be one county over or just a few miles in one direction. Good luck to everyone! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, SVA_SN said: 6z rgem has the heavy snow in the same area as the 00z but even higher totals! Could you dream of a better map than this, being this close to the event? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVA_SN Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, burgertime said: Could you dream of a better map than this, being this close to the event? Absolutely not! I don't know that it's going to verify but man I'm excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Why has my temp gone up from 36 to 39 over the past couple hours here in Concord,NC? DP HAS Only gone up from 32 to 33. Thx for any insight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, davenc said: Why has my temp gone up from 36 to 39 over the past couple hours. DP HAS Only gone up from 32 to 33. Thx for any insight! When the air is warmer the temp goes up... seriously though don't fret over this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, burgertime said: When the air is warmer the temp goes up... seriously though don't fret over this. Lol, now this is a scientific answer! Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Anyone else noticed the big line of storms that has formed in the gulf? Is this what we don’t want to see happening at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 That line is not oriented in the right direction to rob us. Plenty of QPF coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCGamecock Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Any one care to discuss the cold air and dew points aligning up with reality as compared to modeling? Are we still on track?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: That line is not oriented in the right direction to rob us. Plenty of QPF coming. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Updated WPC Guidance and Discussion https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 HRRR for Sunday 4am 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, SVA_SN said: 6z rgem has the heavy snow in the same area as the 00z but even higher totals! Another SVA guy. What a run for 0z and now 6z purposes! Euro shifts heavier qpf up our way and now the FV3 has followed suit on the 6z that is just coming out. The NAM, RGEM and Canadian are absolute crush jobs for northern NC and VA. Speaking of Canadian, 6z is even a tick west of 0z. Looks like the low goes over CHS and MYR, as well as Hatteras and then slows between 45-48hrs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The NAM is still really concerning for central NC... I just don’t see how we get the snowfall amounts RAH is predicting. Ice? Yes, unfortunately. It’s a good reminder for us that in some of our “bust” events (Jan 2017 for example) the NAM has been pretty spot on with sniffing out the warm nose that greatly degrade snow totals and accumulations. The warm nose forecasted by the NAM here is specifically mentioned in RAH discussion this morning. For central NC I think it’ll come down to observations at this point and how CAD develops, etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Here’s Eric Webb’s forecast.. Seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Another SVA guy. What a run for 0z and now 6z purposes! Euro shifts heavier qpf up our way and now the FV3 has followed suit on the 6z that is just coming out. The NAM, RGEM and Canadian are absolute crush jobs for northern NC and VA. Speaking of Canadian, 6z is even a tick west of 0z. Looks like the low goes over CHS and MYR, as well as Hatteras and then slows between 45-48hrs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 NAM output courtesy of Wright Weather Snow Sleet Freezing Rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The NAM/RGEM concerns me for the NW Piedmont portion of this forecast. But we shall see: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Poimen said: The NAM/RGEM concerns me for the NW Piedmont portion of this forecast. But we shall see: No doubt. I just don't see how we don't have significant mixing during the height of the storm. Mainly IP of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6Z FV3; GFS; ICON. Of the three, the ICON is most encouraging to me. It had it's best run yet for the Piedmont. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 @Poimen, I’ve been watching the ICON closely since it did so well last year. It’s slowly gone colder the last three runs and this run is the best yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Woke up to a winter storm warning. RAH saying 3 to 6 inches of snow with up to a quarter inch of freezing rain on top. And if the models are right, the snow amount might be higher. Looks like they keep increasing totals as we get closer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: @Poimen, I’ve been watching the ICON closely since it did so well last year. It’s slowly gone colder the last three runs and this run is the best yet. ICON has come way south with appreciable snow accumulations since yesterday. I'm on my phone but I think it was basically showing nothing for the CLT area yesterday. Good to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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